Oddsmakers say Michigan football less likely to win Big Ten than Indiana

Following a 27-17 loss at Washington last Saturday, Michigan’s odds at winning a fourth consecutive Big Ten championship have plummeted.

While the No. 24 Wolverines (4-2, 2-1 Big Ten) have only dropped one Big Ten game so far this season, upcoming matchups against No. 3 Oregon (Nov. 2) and No. 2 Ohio State (Nov. 30) are daunting, to say the least. Furthermore, Michigan will face two more currently-ranked opponents this season in No. 23 Illinois (Oct. 19) and No. 18 Indiana (Nov. 9).

Something that wouldn’t have been fathomable for the fanbases of either the Wolverines or the Hoosiers leading up to the 2024 season is the fact that Michigan is now considered less likely to win the Big Ten this fall than Indiana midway through the year. According to FanDuel, the Wolverines’ odds to win the conference title sit at +5500, while the Hoosiers’ odds (+2000) have steadily climbed during their 6-0 start.

This is a stunning turnaround from where oddsmakers had these teams in the Big Ten pecking order entering this season. FanDuel’s preseasons odds listed Michigan (+460) the third-most likely to win the conference, while Indiana (+30000) was tied with Purdue for the worst odds to win the Big Ten prior to the season.

Both the Wolverines and Hoosiers are led by first-year head coaches at their respective programs. However, while Indiana’s Curt Cignetti brought 13 years of head coaching experience to Bloomington, Michigan’s Sherrone Moore has been handed the keys to a program for the first time in his young career.

Moore had both the benefit and the curse of taking over a program that had just won three consecutive Big Ten titles and a national championship. While a certain level of drop off was expected for the Wolverines, following the loss of nearly 20 players and their entire defensive coaching staff to the NFL, Michigan’s level of regression has been surprising nonetheless after the program’s great success in recent years. The Wolverines’ offense is among the worst in all of college football, while their defense has fallen woefully short of preseason expectations.

Cignetti, meanwhile, has led the Hoosiers to their first 6-0 start since 1967, the last year in which Indiana won a Big Ten championship in football. Cignetti and the Hoosiers have no doubt benefitted from a light schedule so far, as their first six opponents have a combined record of 13-19, but what he’s done with a program coming off a 3-9 record in 2023 deserves a hat tip. Michigan and Indiana will meet in Bloomington on Nov. 9, with the Wolverines’ leading the all-time series, 62-10.

FanDuel lists Ohio State (-115) as the clear favorite to win the Big Ten, but the Buckeyes face their stiffest challenger this weekend in a road game at Oregon (+230). That pair is followed closely by Penn State (+450), with a wide gap separating the Nittany Lions from Indiana, and another gap between the Hoosiers and Michigan.

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