Northern Michigan in the meaningful severe weather forecast for weekend

A cold front banging into very warm air could produce a few severe thunderstorms this weekend in Michigan. Right now the most likely area for severe thunderstorms would be northern Michigan.

Saturday will warm into the 70s across all of Lower Michigan, and the humidity will increase. The fuel for a fire of thunderstorms will be present. A cold front will move south across the Upper Peninsula into northern Lower Michigan late Saturday afternoon or evening. As the cold front and cooler air undercuts the warm moist air, thunderstorms will develop across the eastern U.P. and drop south into northern Lower Michigan.

Here’s the radar forecast showing the eastern U.P. and far northern Lower Michigan in late Saturday thunderstorms.

Here are the outlined areas for various forms of severe weather. I would call this a potentially scattered area of severe thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) does have the lowest tornado risk they forecast, two percent, over part of northern Lower Michigan.

The overall risk of any form of severe weather shows you where the strongest thunderstorms are likely. Muskegon, Mount Pleasant, Traverse City to Mackinaw City are in the meaningful risk of severe thunderstorms.

The individual types of severe weather also follow that same shaded area of about the northern half of Lower Michigan. Spotty high wind gusts, isolated large hail and even an isolated tornado is possible Saturday.

The most likely time period for these severe thunderstorms is 3 p.m. to 9 p.m. Saturday.

One note from me: I think we need to watch Sunday for another round of severe thunderstorms. There will be a strong and fairly active warm front moving north through Lower Michigan Sunday. Warm fronts can have some very potent thunderstorms develop along them, especially in the heat of the afternoon and evening. A few of our best severe weather models indicate an east-west line of thunderstorms moving northward across Lower Michigan Sunday afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center does not have us in a severe risk late Sunday, but they aren’t perfect. I’ve seen big adjustments to their severe weather area forecasts when the weather in question is two days out.

I’ll keep an eye on Sunday’s weather for you. Check back here through the weekend for updates.