Northern lights in Michigan this weekend? Here’s what to know

Auroras may be visible in Michigan over the next several days, and even as low as Pennsylvania, Iowa and Oregon.

A series of solar events — including the strongest solar flare since 2017 — have experts eying the impact, which may include those night sky spectacles.  

By midday Thursday, geomagnetic storm predictions for Thursday through the next several days had already reached levels in which northern lights could be visible in parts of Michigan. Now, officials are predicting higher, “strong” storm levels — G3 on their scale up to G5 — starting Thursday evening through the weekend.

So, what does that mean?

“If we hit G1 levels or above, you could expect the possibility to see aurora in areas along the US-Canada border including parts of North Dakota and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan,” said Bryan Brasher, project manager for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Space Weather Prediction Center.

The higher the rating, the further south auroras have been seen, according to the prediction center.  

And over the next several days, auroras may be seen over many of the northern states and some of the lower Midwest to Oregon, according to the center.

More: Northern lights forecast for northern US, Midwest this week as solar flares increase

The strongest solar flare in years occurred Thursday morning and appeared to be associated with another solar event, Brasher said. The second event — explained in layman’s terms — is when a tiny bit of the sun, plasma and magnetic fields, is ejected.

Such an ejection directed at the Earth can cause geomagnetic storms that can interfere with power grids and satellites and cause aurora borealis, or the northern lights.

And there’d already been several such ejections before the flare Thursday, Brasher said.

A G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm Watch had been issued for Thursday with the highest activity likely being overnight, said Brasher.

The latest predictions now have a G3 storm watch in place from Oct. 4 through Oct. 6, but since the prediction center uses Coordinated Universal Time, that means the G3 watch really begins Thursday evening in local time, Brasher confirmed in an email after the watches were updated.

If the first ejection arrives earlier than models were showing late afternoon, “elevated geomagnetic activity” could be possible late tonight into early tomorrow local time, Brasher said.

“There is wide uncertainty in timing so we never say never,” he said in his email.

Though the forecasts can change, the aurora forecast released early evening Thursday by the Space Weather Prediction Center for Thursday and Friday showed a view line reaching Michigan’s southern border.

The likelihood of an aurora was projected to be low in the southernmost part of the Lower Peninsula, but the forecast showed Northern Michigan and the Upper Peninsula had a better chance, if still technically rated low.

The Upper Peninsula is expected to have some patches of clouds overnight Thursday that could impair vision, but there’s still a possibility for “some pockets of clearing,” said National Weather Service meteorologist Megan Varcie out of White Lake.

The clouds are expected to make their way down to mid-Michigan and lower around 4 a.m., otherwise it’s expected to be a fairly clear night in Metro Detroit.

The next several nights are anticipated to be fairly clear as well, she said.

Outside of the aurora potential, the Space Weather Prediction Center has noted that the next few days may bring concerns like extra drag on satellites, intermittent GPS issues, power system voltage irregularities and false alarms, primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.