Michigan vs. Saint Louis scouting report, prediction for March Madness second round

James Hawkins of The Detroit News breaks down Michigan’s second-round opponent in the NCAA Tournament and predicts the outcome:

Michigan vs. Saint Louis scouting report

▶ Saint Louis (29-5) set a school record for victories in a season in dominate fashion. The ninth-seeded Billikens shot 58% from the field and set numerous program marks for an NCAA Tournament game in Thursday’s 102-77 shellacking of No. 8 seed Georgia, including points scored, field goals (42), assists (27) and margin of victory. Per KenPom’s rankings, the Bulldogs (No. 37) are the highest-rated team that Saint Louis has beaten this season and just the third top-50 team, after Santa Clara (No. 38) and VCU (No. 42), who both made the Big Dance.

▶ The Billikens rank in the top 15 nationally in numerous offensive and defensive categories. On offense, they’re second in 3-point shooting (40.2%), sixth in field-goal percentage (50.9%), 10th in made 3-pointers (10.9) and assists (18.3) per game, 10th in scoring offense (87.2 points) and 11th in 2-point shooting (59.6%). On defense, they lead the nation in opposing field goal percentage (37.9%), rank fifth in 2-point field goal percentage (44.6%) and are seventh in 3-point field goal percentage (29.8%).

▶ Redshirt junior guard Kellen Thames and redshirt sophomore guard Trey Green led the Atlantic 10 in 2-point shooting (67.8%) and 3-point shooting (45.7%), respectively. Green’s 3-point mark also ranks third in the nation and headlines a long-range attack that features four Billikens who are shooting at least 40% from deep on 50-plus attempts. The others are forward Brady Dunlap (44.1%), guard Ishan Sharma (42.8%), center Robbie Avila (41.6%) and guard Dion Brown (40.4%). Saint Louis has made as many as 19 3-pointers in a game this season and has drained at least 10 deep balls 22 times across 34 contests.

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Michigan vs. Saint Louis prediction

Saint Louis, the Atlantic 10 regular-season champion, carved up and dissected Georgia’s defense in a blowout win. The Billikens will provide much more of a test than Howard did, and Michigan is going to need to be locked in defensively from the start.

The Wolverines have struggled to guard stretch fives (see both Wisconsin games) and Saint Louis just so happens to have a big man — the bespectacled Robbie Avila — who shoots 40% from deep. If Michigan can find a way to solve that defensive dilemma, it should be Sweet 16-bound in its seventh straight NCAA Tournament appearance, though it might not come comfortably. Pick: Michigan, 84-78

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NCAA Tournament

NO. 1 SEED MICHIGAN VS. NO. 9 SEED SAINT LOUIS

What: Second-round NCAA Tournament game

When: Saturday, 12:10 p.m.

Where: KeyBank Arena, Buffalo

TV: CBS

Records: Michigan 32-3, Saint Louis 29-5