Is Michigan State safe from the NCAA Tournament bubble? Selection Sunday anxiety builds

East Lansing, Mich. – When Michigan State played Purdue in the Big Ten Tournament Quarterfinals on Friday, it didn’t feel like a must-win situation, but it might have been.

The Spartans wake up this morning in a more precarious NCAA Tournament bubble predicament than most observers anticipated.

At stake is Michigan State’s streak of 25 straight appearances in the NCAA Tournament. That’s the third longest in college basketball history. The Spartans can overtake North Carolina’s streak of 27 and post the second-longest streak in history if the Spartans make The Big Dance this year and the next two years. 

Tom Izzo’s streak of 25 consecutive appearances is the most by any coach in the history of the game. 

Those streaks are on the line today as the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee meets to decide the fate of several bubble teams, one of which is Michigan State. This will likely be the most uneasy Selection Sunday of the past 26 years for Izzo and Michigan State.

With North Carolina State winning the ACC’s automatic bid and Oregon winning the Pac-12’s automatic bid, those two surprise teams stole bids from teams that were previously on the bubble. That means teams that weren’t on the bubble a couple of days ago have been bumped down a couple of pegs into the danger zone – and Michigan State is one of them.

ESPN’s Joe Lunardi had Michigan State comfortably in the tournament two days ago. But now he has the Spartans as one of the “last four in.” He has the Spartans a notch below TCU, and a notch ahead of Oklahoma and Colorado. That’s a thin margin of error for Michigan State. 

Lunardi is well-respected for his projections, but there are occasionally Selection Sunday surprises, enough to make Spartans fans sweat when the brackets are announced at 6 p.m. on Sunday. 

Lunardi has Michigan State playing Oklahoma in a “First Four” game in Dayton, for the right to play No. 7 seed Gonzaga in Salt Lake City. The survivor would face No. 2 seed Arizona if the chalk holds.

CBS’s Jerry Palm has the Spartans somewhat comfortably in as a No. 10 seed. He has Dayton, St. John’s, Northwestern and Texas A&M as the last four in. He has Pitt, Colorado, Virginia and Seton Hall as the first four out. 

Lunardi has St. John’s, Virginia, Seton Hall and Indiana State as the “first four out.” 

Lunardi and Palm disagree about their first four out and last four in – again, enough to make Michigan State fans squeamish about a lack of consensus. 

The NET ranking is a key metric to keep an eye on. That’s a ranking the NCAA Selection Committee has valued above all others in recent years. No team ranked outside the Top 30 in the NET has ever failed to get an NCAA Tournament bid. But that could change this year.

Michigan State has a strong No. 25 ranking in the NET. Colorado is No. 24. Indiana State is No. 30, and both major bracketologists are projecting that the Sycamores aren’t going to make the field. 

Dayton appears strong at No. 23 in the NET with a 24-7 record. 

Northwestern had a better Big Ten season than Michigan State but has a NET ranking of No. 54, due in part to a non-conference strength of schedule which ranks No. 330, compared to Michigan State’s No. 44.

St. John’s (No. 34), Seton Hall (No. 66) and Virginia (No. 55), each of whom Lunardi has out, don’t have strong NET rankings.

Palm has St. John’s and Northwestern in. He has Pitt (No. 41 in the NET) and Colorado (No. 24 in the NET) out. 

Colorado out with a No. 24 NET? Again, these conflicting interpretations are enough to cause Spartan palpitations. The comparisons are dizzying. 

Palm seems to be the bracketologist who is most bullish on Michigan State. He has the Spartans playing against No. 7 Gonzaga in Omaha, with the winner playing No. 2 seed Iowa State if the chalk holds. 

Playing Iowa State in Omaha would be a major problem for any team. Iowa State is red hot after racing through the Big 12 Conference Tournament and has a huge fan following that will travel to Omaha in large, loud numbers. 

Iowa State will have a home court advantage against whichever team it faces in the Second Round. That would be a difficult date for Michigan State, but one that most Spartan fans would accept, if they could, considering the air of uncertainty that will accompany Selection Sunday’s bracket announcements. 

Tom Izzo (Photo by Junfu Han | USA Today Network).