Can Michigan break record for most players drafted? Debating the Wolverines' draft class

The NFL Draft kicks off Thursday in Detroit, and Michigan will be right in the middle of everything.

The Wolverines have one of the deepest draft classes in history, headlined by quarterback J.J. McCarthy, running back Blake Corum, wide receiver Roman Wilson and many other stars from the national championship team. Two big storylines: Will McCarthy be a top-five pick, and will Michigan break Georgia’s record of 15 players selected in a single draft? The Athletic’s Nick Baumgardner and Austin Meek are here to discuss.

Meek: Nick, the last time we did one of these, Jim Harbaugh was climbing mountains and saying he was going to beat Ohio State or die trying. Now he’s living in an RV park by the ocean and Michigan has a national championship banner hanging in Glick Field House. What a world!

Anyway, the draft is almost here and we’re about to find out if Harbaugh was right about the number of draft picks on his roster. You’ve been deep in the weeds of this draft class for months now, so let me start you off with this: Of Michigan’s draft prospects, who’s your favorite in terms of the value he’ll bring to a team relative to where he’s being projected?

Baumgardner: I actually saw Harbaugh walking around in Indianapolis at the combine (literally 20 minutes after I got there, not lying) with a brand new, powder blue Chargers jacket on and one of those really bright-colored Charger hats. Jack was there, too, of course, Charger’d out. The whole vibe reminded me of when he came back to Michigan and spent the first six months globetrotting and loving life. The more things change, the more they don’t.

As far as this Michigan class goes, it’s not only the best and deepest the program’s had in decades — it’s one of the toughest, from top to bottom, in the history of the program. Some of those classes in the 1990s produced elite pro players, so we’ll see how this stacks up. But there are so many top-end guys in this group from a football character standpoint. And for me, the two at the top of the list (I’ll cheat) are Roman Wilson and Mike Sainristil.

Both players were probably outside the average NFL scout’s top 100 when last season started. But after about a month, you started to hear a lot of buzz about the uptick in speed and intensity we saw from Wilson in literally everything he was doing. Be it blocking, finishing in the air, adjusting to off-target throws. He turned himself into one of the most dependable, QB-friendly receivers in the country last year and is, to me, the model of what a college wide receiver should be. Your route is on time, every time. You block. You don’t drop the ball. You make younger guys around you better. He did all that, plus he’s a great athlete.

Sainristil is all of that on the other side of the ball. I’ve had former Michigan captains tell me they think Sainristil’s the best one the program’s ever had. Or at least on a short list of four or five. His influence on the people around him cannot be overstated and, frankly, it’s the perfect time for a guy like him to take advantage of that. The NFL is much more aware of emotional intelligence and how important it is now than probably ever before. Sainristil is an incredibly savvy and impactful player at just 5-foot-9. But the reason why he’s going to go Day 2 and not at the end of the sixth round is the intangible value-add he brings. Both guys are good enough to play right away in the league and, more importantly, have the mental makeup to survive and thrive.

Meek: I was adamant after last year that Sainristil was going to get drafted and play in the NFL. I’m not sure how much of a hot take that was, but he wasn’t on many NFL radars in early 2022 as a 5-9 senior who was playing DB for the first time in college. His whole career is a testament to patience and what’s possible when a guy brings it every day.

We’ve gotten this far without discussing Jonathan James McCarthy, but let’s talk quarterbacks. A few months ago, the question was, “Will he be a first-round pick?” Now the question is, “Will he be a top-five pick?” Dane Brugler’s latest mock draft has the Vikings moving up to get McCarthy at No. 4, and the Chargers could deal the fifth pick to a team that wants to draft Harbaugh’s favorite QB. You’ve seen all the good and bad (mostly good) of McCarthy’s time at Michigan. So, two-part question: Will a team move into the top five to draft him, and should a team move into the top five to draft him?

Baumgardner: The QB situation in the NFL drives the bus with regard to the draft market. So many teams need guys right now and this is a good QB class in terms of prospects who have what it takes to start (for a long time) in the NFL. That includes McCarthy. I’d be surprised if he makes it out of the top five. That doesn’t mean I believe McCarthy’s a top-five player in this draft, or even a top-15 player.

Physically, his tools have always been first-round stuff. Anyone who saw that Daylen Baldwin throw (or the one to Roman Wilson in the Rose Bowl) knows what I mean. His body is explosive, he’s twitchy and can generate velocity from any arm angle — stationary or on the move.

NFL quarterbacks who can’t throw on the move, even if it’s a short distance due to pressure, do not survive. The guys we think of as “slow” are actually pretty quick in relation to what we usually see from a college passer. They’re also making three reads in the time it takes you and me to tie one shoe. McCarthy’s combination of athleticism and arm talent is top-tier stuff. If he’d played at Washington and gotten 500 attempts per year, this wouldn’t be polarizing. If he had a higher volume, he’d be easier to evaluate, and, in my opinion, his talent would overtake the discussion.

But he didn’t. Not because of anything he does or doesn’t have, but because of how Harbaugh and Michigan ran offense. If you cut up 25 throws from Caleb Williams’ or Jayden Daniels’ tape, you’re going to find at least half of those attempts look like something you’d see from an NFL offense — be it degree of difficulty, depth of concept, whatever. If you cut up 25 from McCarthy, you’ll find maybe three to five. And it’s possibly going to take you two games to get all the data.

The lack of volume is problematic as it’s difficult to project what, exactly, McCarthy is right now. Michigan’s offense did an elite job of masking his struggle areas. The run game helped. But you’ll note that most of McCarthy’s big throws on the move went to his right. Frankly, most of his big stationary throws went to his right. He’s right-handed, and he’s downright lethal on the move rolling to his right. If you ask him to throw a 15-yard corner route to the right, it’s borderline surgical. If you ask him to do it to his left, it might hit the Gatorade cooler. If he rolls out to his left, the play becomes a choose-your-own-adventure book. He needs to get stronger. He can’t miss so many layups and, just like his old coach, he’s going to have to recalibrate his aggression calculus at the next level. You and I used to talk a lot about how Cade McNamara and Jim Harbaugh were, mentally, like the same person. Well, J.J. McCarthy and Jim Harbaugh are mentally and physically, more or less, the same person.

The positives far outweigh the negatives, though, which is why he’s a top-25 talent and, since he’s a QB in a year where everyone needs one, a likely top-five pick.

Meek: McCarthy won’t have to wait long to hear his name called, but the strength of this class is really going to shine on Day 2 and Day 3. Georgia had five first-round picks in 2022; Michigan might have one or two. If Michigan ends up breaking Georgia’s record, it will because the Wolverines had a bunch of players drafted in the middle and late rounds.

Is there a guy projected in the fifth round or later who you think has a shot to be an NFL starter or a contributor who has a long career? And, the big question: Do you think Michigan will break the record?

Baumgardner: One guy I loved all last season was tight end AJ Barner. There are other tight ends in this class with better athletic traits and there are certainly better receivers. In terms of the tight end stack, he’s probably a fifth-roundish guy. I’m not sure there’s a better run blocker, pound for pound, than Barner, though.

Not just from an attitude/mindset standpoint, but also as a technician. He was, for my money, about the most fundamentally consistent run blocker there was at tight end in the Power 5 last year. I thought Barner was a hidden MVP for Michigan’s offense last season as he played a ton opposite Colston Loveland (who is going to be a first-round pick) and was essentially a legit sixth offensive lineman for U-M in both flex and heavy situations. Running the ball is back in the NFL. Not just with the Chargers. If you can run block, you’re on the radar of all 32 teams.

Barner can play inside or outside. He’s a really good space blocker. And he’s capable enough as a receiver to hold down the fort. If he can add like 10 solid pounds to his 6-6 frame, he’ll have a chance to be a Y or U tight end for a long time.

Another might be Cornelius Johnson. He tested much better than some thought he would and had a really good showing at the Shrine Bowl. Battle-tested player.

In terms of the record? I think it’ll be pretty close. I don’t think they’re getting 18, or however many Harbaugh predicted. But 15 is certainly possible. There are 13 guys I’d think are likely draft picks: J.J. McCarthy, Roman Wilson, Mike Sainristil, Junior Colson, Kris Jenkins, Blake Corum, Zak Zinter, AJ Barner, Jaylen Harrell, Cornelius Johnson, Trevor Keegan, Ladarius Henderson and Braiden McGregor. I’d be pretty surprised if any of those guys don’t hear their names. The toss-ups for me are Drake Nugent and Mike Barrett. I’d lean toward PFA grades for Karsen Barnhart, Trente Jones and Josh Wallace.

The thing to remember is the Harbaugh factor. Throughout Harbaugh’s tenure at Michigan, his word was enough to get a handful of guys (Camaron Cheeseman, Jordan Glasgow, Brad Robbins, Chris Evans, Ben Mason) drafted on Day 3. There’s also the fact that you now have two Harbaugh brothers actively drafting (three if you count Mike Macdonald) and one of them really wants to be able to say (or have others say for him) he recruited the deepest NFL Draft class in the history of football. So, based on that, I’d say yeah: Michigan is going to set the record this spring. Even if it’s by just one.

(Top photos of J.J. McCarthy, AJ Barner, Mike Sainristil: Kirby Lee, Junfu Han, Mark J. Rebilas / USA Today)