Texas women’s basketball vs. Kansas State: Big 12 semifinals prediction, scouting report

​​KANSAS CITY, Mo. — With a trip to the Big 12 championship game on the line, Texas and Kansas State will meet at the T-Mobile Center for the Big 12 Tournament semifinals on Monday afternoon (4 p.m., ESPN2, 103.1). Texas and Kansas State are seeded second and third in the tournament’s bracket.

Texas (28-4) and Kansas State (25-6) split their series this season. The Wildcats recorded a 61-58 win in Manhattan on Jan. 13. Texas earned a seven-point victory in Austin on Feb. 4.

Here’s what you need to know about the matchup:

Texas prepares for a battle in the paint

During the 61-54 win that it earned over a Kansas State team that was ranked second in the AP poll at the time, Texas did not have to deal with KSU center Ayoka Lee. The All-American candidate was recovering from an ankle surgery at the time.

Lee is averaging 19.9 points and 8.4 rebounds per game. In a 65-62 win over West Virginia in the Big 12 quarterfinals on Saturday, Lee contributed 22 points and 11 rebounds. Lee scored 21 points against Texas in January.

Texas has some size to throw at the 6-foot-6 Lee. Center Taylor Jones is 6-4, as are reserve forwards Amina Muhammad and Khadija Faye.

Texas has outscored its opponents in the paint in all but five of its games. But two of those outliers, however, were the Kansas State games.

Longhorns get a day off before semifinals

Since it added four teams this season, the Big 12 expended its tournament bracket and switched its format. An off day was added to the schedule after the quarterfinal round, so the Longhorns and Wildcats don’t have to play on Sunday. In years past, the quarterfinals, semifinals and championship were decided on consecutive days.

Does Texas coach Vic Schaefer like this new format? Or would he have preferred to keep playing one day after UT recorded a 76-60 win over Kansas in the quarterfinals?

Said Schaefer: “It’s a great format. I like it. I don’t mind taking the day as long as I’m not having to go home. So it will be good. We’ll get to practice and have a day − our kids are really good. They’re real intentional on their preparation. They’re going to be locked in on film. They’ll be locked in on what we’re going to do tomorrow, with whoever we’ve gotta guard. Pretty much two different teams completely. So the turn-around will be pretty quick, but our kids have been so intentional all year.”

Longhorns, Wildcats attempting to reach Big 12 finale

The winner of this semifinal showdown will battle either Oklahoma (22-8) or Iowa State (19-10) in the Big 12 championship game. The Sooners and Cyclones play at 1:30 p.m. on Monday.

Texas has reached the Big 12 finale in each of the past two seasons, and the Longhorns won the tournament title in 2022. Kansas State hasn’t made an appearance in the Big 12 championship game since 2005.

Texas vs. Kansas State prediction

Texas. The Longhorns will prevail but expect some drama. Nine of Kansas State’s last 14 games have been decided by three points or less.