Report predicts Kansas population will grow by half-million in 50 years • Kansas Reflector

TOPEKA — Kansas’ population is expected to grow by nearly 500,000 people in the next 50 years, and non-white residents are predicted to drive that growth, a research center forecasts.

A report from Wichita State University’s Center for Economic Development and Business Research said the state is predicted to add more than 469,000 residents by 2072, which will amount to a 16% increase from the state’s 2022 population.

It’s a sign that Kansas’ population is breaking out of a period of stagnancy, said Jonathan Norris, a research economist at the center, which is a part of the university’s W. Frank Barton School of Business.

The state’s metropolitan areas — Kansas City, Lawrence, Topeka and Wichita — make up the lionshare of the projected growth, Norris said. But that’s because the state’s rural areas are finding their balance.

Lumped together, rural counties are projected to decline, and metropolitan areas are projected to grow, but historical forecasts indicate rural areas are now experiencing less decline than years past, Norris said.

“The landscape is going to change,” Norris said. “One of the big changes we’re seeing is the increased diversification in those rural areas, too.”

The forecast, which was funded by the Kansas City, Missouri-based nonprofit the Patterson Family Foundation, analyzes mortality, fertility and migration rates along with age and race data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Surveys to reach its population predictions.

Nearly every county in Kansas will see an increase in non-white residents in the next 50 years, the forecast said. Growth rates regardless of race or ethnicity are expected to increase across the state, but Black, Hispanic, Native American, Asian and Pacific-Islander Kansans, among others, will see higher rates of growth than their white counterparts, the forecast indicates.

Norris attributes this to a few things. In part, white Kansans are likely to have lower birth rates than other racial or ethnic groups. It’s also because people are changing the way they fill out their census forms, Norris said. More and more people are identifying with more than one race or ethnicity.

The state’s current population is around 2.9 million people, according to the 2020 census. Per the center’s predictions, it would exceed 3 million in 2032 and reach 3.4 million in 2072.

Births in Kansas have steadily decreased in the past 20 years with few exceptions, according to the Kansas Department of Health and Environment’s 2023 preliminary birth report.  However, the center’s forecast predicts the number of children younger than 5 years old will increase by nearly 24% in the next 50 years. The center believes the “growing birth counts will be a powerful driver of population growth beyond 2072,” a Monday news release said.

Kansans older than 65 are projected to experience the most growth in the next 50 years among all age groups with a nearly 23% increase. Population change among younger people — 20 years old and below — will see the most limited growth with a roughly 10% increase.

“Broadly speaking, the changing age composition just means that you’re going to have some different considerations and needs for the workforce,” Norris said.

The forecast, which will be updated annually through 2030, reveals an overall positive outlook on Kansas’ future population changes, Norris said.

He added: “I think this reflects a lot of optimism for the direction of the state over the next 50 years.”