Kansas
New York Mets vs. Kansas City Royals: Expert prediction, HR projections, and odds this Saturday
The New York Mets will lock horns with the Kansas City Royals in an interleague MLB matchup at Kauffman Stadium on Saturday, scheduled to start at 4:10 p.m. ET.
With the Mets sending Frankie Montas (1-1, 6.14 ERA) to the mound against the Royals’ Michael Lorenzen (5-8, 4.60 ERA), and both boasting sub-average ERAs, home runs are likely on Saturday.
After Saturday’s Mets-Royals simulation results were finalized, Dimers’ experts released updated predictions and betting guidance, along with a complete set of stat projections for both teams’ batters.
Following Soto’s historic snub from the 2025 All Star Game, he once again trails teammate Pete Alonso as the Mets’ most likely home run hitter. The complete data set is below.
Updated Mets vs. Royals stat projections
| Player | Team | 1+ Hit | 2+ Hits | To Get RBI | To Hit HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso | NYM | 59.8% | 18.9% | 38.6% | 19.0% |
| Juan Soto | NYM | 61.8% | 20.0% | 35.7% | 17.8% |
| Mark Vientos | NYM | 61.1% | 19.6% | 34.6% | 15.9% |
| Francisco Lindor | NYM | 63.1% | 21.8% | 31.0% | 15.0% |
| Salvador Perez | KC | 65.1% | 23.0% | 34.6% | 14.7% |
| Bobby Witt | KC | 69.1% | 26.7% | 33.0% | 14.1% |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | KC | 66.3% | 23.1% | 34.6% | 14.0% |
| Brandon Nimmo | NYM | 61.8% | 21.2% | 30.1% | 13.0% |
| Brett Baty | NYM | N/A | N/A | N/A | 12.5% |
| Jac Caglianone | KC | 62.6% | 20.3% | 29.3% | 12.4% |
| Ronny Mauricio | NYM | 62.8% | 21.5% | 30.9% | 12.0% |
| Luis Torrens | NYM | N/A | N/A | N/A | 9.7% |
| Freddy Fermin | KC | 65.7% | 23.4% | 28.5% | 9.3% |
| Jeff McNeil | NYM | 66.9% | 25.0% | 30.4% | 9.2% |
| Nick Loftin | KC | 62.6% | 20.5% | 26.6% | 7.8% |
| Kyle Isbel | KC | 62.4% | 21.5% | N/A | 7.8% |
| Jonathan India | KC | 61.9% | 19.8% | 22.9% | 7.5% |
| Maikel Garcia | KC | 66.7% | 24.2% | 28.2% | 5.9% |
Mets vs. Royals betting preview
In addition to the stat projections above, Dimers’ experts have released newly updated Mets-Royals predictions and betting guidance.
Explore the interactive widget below to view the latest run line, over/under, and moneyline odds and probabilities for the Mets-Royals game at Kauffman Stadium.
Game details
The key information you need before the Mets vs. Royals MLB game.
- Teams: New York Mets vs. Kansas City Royals
- Date: Saturday, July 12, 2025
- Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
- Location: Kauffman Stadium
Starting pitchers
- Mets: Frankie Montas (1-1, 6.14 ERA)
- Royals: Michael Lorenzen (5-8, 4.60 ERA)
Odds
The latest and best odds for the MLB showdown between the Mets and Royals.
- Run line: Mets -1.5 (+125), Royals +1.5 (-150)
- Moneyline: Mets -125, Royals +108
- Total: Over/Under 9.5 (-105/-115)
The odds and lines featured in this article are the best available from selected sports betting sites at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Local Mets fans can use the BetMGM promo code “CUSE150″ to unlock bonus bets for Saturday’s matchup with the Royals, while fans nationwide can unlock Prime Day betting deals with the Bet365 bonus code “SYRACUSE”.
Expert prediction: Mets vs. Royals
Using advanced data analysis and advanced algorithms, the experts at Dimers have performed 10,000 simulations of Saturday’s Mets vs. Royals game.
According to Dimers’ popular predictive analytics model, the Mets are more likely to defeat the Royals at Kauffman Stadium. This prediction is based on the model giving the Mets a 53% chance of winning the game.
Furthermore, Dimers predicts that the Royals (+1.5) have a 59% chance of covering the run line, while the 9.5-run over/under has a 53% chance of staying under.
These predictions and probabilities are correct at the time of publication but are subject to potential changes.
Mets vs. Royals best bet
Our top pick for the Mets vs. Royals game on Saturday is to bet on the Royals +1.5 (-150).
This betting advice is formulated through cutting-edge simulations and valuable betting intelligence, designed to assist you in making smarter investments.
MLB Saturday: Mets vs. Royals
Get ready for Saturday’s matchup between the Mets and Royals inMLB at Kauffman Stadium, which is scheduled to start at 4:10 p.m. ET.
We emphasize that all of the MLB best bets and MLB predictions on this page are derived from 10,000 data-driven simulations of the Mets vs. Royals matchup, and they are accurate at the time of publication. They are intended to assist you make better decisions when placing bets at online sportsbooks.
If you or a loved one has questions or needs to talk to a professional about gambling, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit 1800gambler.net for more information.
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Kansas
Ottawa, Kansas, offers $6,000 cash to attract new residents to the small town
KSHB 41 reporter Olivia Acree covers portions of Johnson County, Kansas. Share your story idea with Olivia.
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Would $6,000 entice you to move? If it does, consider Ottawa, Kansas.
The small town is rolling out the red carpet for potential new residents with a $6,000 cash incentive as part of the state’s first-ever relocation program.
Rural Kansas county will give you $6K to move to small town
Basically, the program is using $3 million in state funding to help local communities create “please move here” packages.
“Our community is really ready and primed to be able to grow. And hopefully this program allows the degree to kind of jump start that,” said Ryland Miller, Ottawa Chamber of Commerce president.
KSHB
There are just a few requirements to apply. Applicants must be from outside the state, have a job secured before moving and maintain a household income of at least $55,000.
Here’s the link to learn more.
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Kansas
Patrick Mahomes undergoes surgery to repair ACL day after injury
What is next for Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs?
Joe Rivera and and Chris Bumbaca break down Patrick Mahomes’ ACL tear and where they see the KC organization going moving forward.
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes underwent surgery to repair his torn left ACL on Dec. 15 in Dallas, Texas, the team said.
Dr. Dan Cooper, an orthopedic surgeon based in Dallas, performed the surgery. Cooper specializes in knee and shoulder injuries for the Carrell Clinic, based in Texas.
Chiefs head coach Andy Reid said earlier Dec. 15 that Mahomes was seeking a second opinion in the Dallas area. The Chiefs said Mahomes will begin his rehab immediately. The three-time Super Bowl winner will have roughly nine months to prepare for Week 1 of the 2026 season.
ESPN reported that Cooper also repaired Mahomes’ torn lateral collateral ligament (LCL).
Mahomes suffered the injury on Dec. 14 as the Chiefs lost to the Los Angeles Chargers at home, which knocked them out of playoff contention. The two-time MVP was tackled from behind by Chargers defensive end Da’Shawn Hand. Mahomes immediately reached for his left knee after being rolled up from behind as Kansas City’s medical staff immediately tended to him.
He eventually walked off under his own power but Chiefs head coach Andy Reid told reporters that the initial prognosis did not “look good.”
Gardner Minshew replaced Mahomes and purports to be Kansas City’s starter for the final three games of the season.
Contributing: Jacob Camenker
All the NFL news on and off the field. Sign up for USA TODAY’s 4th and Monday newsletter. Check out the latest edition: Recapping the carnage of Week 15.
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Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City Chiefs facing rebuild after missing NFL playoffs for first time since 2014
The NFL playoffs and the road to the Super Bowl will not feature the Kansas City Chiefs for the first time since 2014 this season. Does it mark the end of an era for one of the league’s great modern dynasty teams?
Andy Reid’s side were officially eliminated from playoff contention on Sunday following a 16-13 defeat to the Los Angeles Chargers, coupled with deciding victories for the Buffalo Bills, Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans.
A miserable season was punctuated by a late injury to star quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who was later ruled out for the remainder of the campaign with a torn ACL that will now disrupt preparations heading into next season.
Having reached five of the last six Super Bowls, the Chiefs face uncharted territory in the offseason.
“You look over the years, there’s a multitude of things (contributing to their downfall),” says Sky Sports NFL’s Phoebe Schecter. “They’ve had longer seasons than any other team and X amount of games every single year, emotionally, mentally, physically it’s taxing on a player.
“The Chiefs have never fully invested back into who they are drafting, free agency, they don’t have a ton of star receivers, you’re relying on people like Travis Kelce.
“There’s a lot of rebuilding that has to happen.
“It’s hard when you compare to a team like the Eagles, who are constantly staying ahead of it and building depth – I don’t think they’ve had a star receiver since Tyreek Hill.”
The Chiefs had entered the campaign on the back of reaching three straight Super Bowls, winning two in a row before being dismantled by the Philadelphia Eagles in New Orleans last February.
A shortage of star quality or reinvestment in as much was evident that day at the Superdome, and has emerged as a prevalent talking point in the decline of a team and, in particular, an offense that once looked untouchable.
“This is maybe the end of the first iteration of the Chiefs that we’ve seen,” said Sky Sports NFL’s Neil Reynolds. “This happened to Brady and the Patriots. They had a 10-year gap. Brady won three, ironically, his knee ligaments went, 10 years later they then won another three with New England.
“So this feels like the end of something with Kelce. Have the Chiefs in recent years failed Patrick Mahomes? Because I don’t know if they’ve got a number one wide receiver. They don’t have a star running back.
“I don’t want to play fantasy football, but that offense with George Pickens or Breece Hall in the backfield, I just wonder whether they have assumed Patrick Mahomes will bail them out, as he has done many times, and continue to do so, and it feels like they’ve run out of it this year.”
Mahomes endured, statistically, one of the worst seasons of his career on the way to the Super Bowl last year as the Chiefs largely leaned on Steve Spagnuolo’s defense to carry them through a series of one-score games.
The production has been marginally improved in 2025 but no less erratic or inconsistent, Mahomes constantly relied upon to create magic in the face of limited options.
“I think that’s true,” said Sky Sports NFL’s Jeff Reinebold. “I think that they have confidence in his ability to elevate everybody at the critical moments.
“I have such an appreciation for excellence. And sustained excellence is even held in a higher esteem to me because you know think about this, 2014 is a long time ago and it’s been that long that they’ve been in the playoffs every year and have been the team that you had to beat, so to have sustained excellence in a league that makes it just about as difficult as you can make it, maybe more difficult than any pro sports league, that is a credit to the Chiefs organisation, to Andy Reid, to Brett Veach.
“However, the reality is eventually it just runs out, you just run out of steam. You look at Kelce, he’s not the player that he once was, I thought he was really good today and competed his tail off but you know there are now guys that can match and make it really difficult.
“I agree about the receivers they’ve got, some guys with unique skill sets but I don’t know if they’ve got a true number one receiver.”
As defensive lineman Chris Jones took to the podium post-game, he had to ask reporters if the Chiefs were out of the playoffs. He didn’t know. Until it hit him.
The silence was deafening and a reflection of the unknown. This was a day that was always coming, and the reality of a major offseason shake-up hit.
“It’s hard to rebuild when you’ve been winning, it’s ‘what are we going to change?’,” said Sky Sports NFL’s Jason Bell.
“You have to get to the point where it falls apart and doesn’t work, but you never want to see Mahomes get hurt like that, it’s the worst-case scenario.”
After 10 straight playoff appearances, nine straight division titles and seven consecutive trips to the AFC Championship Game, the Chiefs’ dominance is no more.
Watch the 2025 NFL season live on Sky Sports, including every minute of the playoffs and Super Bowl LX; Get Sky Sports or stream with no contract on NOW.
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