Kansas State women vs Portland in March Madness: Prediction for 2024 NCAA Tournament opener

MANHATTAN — The Kansas State women’s basketball team got its wish, and so did its fans.

By claiming the No. 4 seed in the second Albany, New York, regional, the Wildcats (25-7) open the 2024 NCAA Tournament on their home court at Bramlage Coliseum on Friday against No. 13 seed Portland (21-12).

The top 16 overall seeds — four in each region — were designated as hosts for the first two rounds. Joining the Wildcats in Manhattan are No. 5 seed Colorado (22-9) and No. 12 Drake (29-5).

Tipoff times Friday’s first-round games will be announced Monday, along with TV information. If the Wildcats get past Portland, they will face the Colorado-Drake on Sunday.

Here are three things to know about the Wildcats’ first-round matchup with Portland.

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Did Portland give Wildcats a helping hand?

Heading into this week’s conference tournaments, Gonzaga had been slotted in at a No. 4 seed with K-State on the 5 line. Presumably, the final No. 4 spot would come down to those two.

But Portland beat Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference Tournament championship game, which could have sent the Bulldogs to a No. 5. As it turned out, it was Colorado, K-State’s potential second round opponent, that dropped to No. 5.

There were other factors no doubt, particularly a good showing at the Big 12 Tournament by K-State, which took eventual champion Texas to the wire in the semifinals.

It could be a battle of the bigs

On paper, Kansas State All-America center Ayoka Lee clearly has an advantage in the post, averaging 20.1 points and 8.4 rebounds per game, but she won’t be towering over her Portland counterpart.

Pilots center Lucy Cochrane matches Lee’s height at 6-foot-6 and averages 7.5 points and a team-best 6.3 rebounds.

Who are the top players to watch?

Lee, a four-time All-Big 12 first team pick, clearly is No. 1 on the list of players to watch. But the Wildcats have another all-conference selection in junior point guard Serena Sundell, who averages 12 points and 5.4 assists.

An X-factor for K-State could be senior guard Gabby Gregory, an all-conference pick last year, who has come on of late and averages 8.9 points and 3.5 assists.

Portland’s leading scorer is junior guard Emme Shearer at 12.2 points per game, followed by junior guard Maisie Burnham at 11.6 and graduate forward Kennedy Dickie with 10.5 points and 5.5 rebounds.

Prediction: Kansas State 70, Portland 58

Kansas State should have too much firepower for Portland, and the Wildcats’ defense is even better, allowing just 57.6 points per game. Portland averages 68 points and allows 61.9 but shoots just 30.6% from 3-point range and turns the ball over an average of 17.8 times a game. The Wildcats should roll at home.

Arne Green is based in Salina and covers Kansas State University sports for the Gannett network. He can be reached at agreen@gannett.com or on Twitter at @arnegreen.