Kansas City Chiefs 2024 futures odds: Chiefs seeking historic three-peat

Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs have made plenty of history since his first season as a starter back in 2018. This year, though, they have a chance to do something that would easily trump all their accomplishments over the past six years.

No team has ever won three consecutive Super Bowls, and only three — the Dolphins in the ’70s, the Bills in the ’90s and the Patriots (2016-18) — have ever even reached three.

So even for a squad as talented as this one, what the Chiefs are aiming for this season seems nearly impossible.

That being said, if there’s any team thaat can pull off a three-peat, it’s the one led by Mahomes, tight end Travis Kelce and coach Andy Reid. And it’s not just because of the precocious postseason legend who wears No. 15 for the Chiefs.

Let’s break down the Kansas City Chiefs’ 2024 NFL futures odds, including the Chiefs’ Super Bowl 59 odds, betting analysis and best bets.

Kansas City Chiefs 2024 Futures Odds

Below are the Chiefs’ futures odds in six of the most popular markets available at the top sportsbooks.

It’s an understatement to call the Chiefs locks to win the AFC West and reach the postseason.

The question is whether KC can reach the AFC Championship Game for a record seventh consecutive season and/or make the Super Bowl for the third straight year (and fifth time in the last six).

Kansas City Chiefs 2024 Betting Outlook

Anyone who only watched Mahomes late in Super Bowl 58 might find it ridiculous for us to suggest that this offense has room to improve this season, but hear me out.

Can Mahomes and the Chiefs offense return to their usual level?

Yes, Mahomes and Kelce made whatever plays they had to in the playoffs last year. That was especially true in Kansas City’s 25-22 overtime win over the 49ers in Super Bowl 58.

Kelce led the way with 93 yards receiving on nine catches, and Mahomes completed 34-of-46 passes for 333 yards, two touchdowns and one interception (while adding 66 crucial yards on nine rushing attempts) in that game.

But if it seemed like this offense was a shell of itself last season — particularly in the first half of the Super Bowl and throughout the AFC Championship Game in Baltimore — that’s because this unit was indeed underwhelming for most of the year.

With a mediocre-at-best WR unit (second-round rookie Rashee Rice was the only Chiefs WR with more than 27 catches during the 2023 regular season) and an average running game, Kansas City averaged just 21.8 points per game last year (15th-best in the NFL). The Chiefs ranked No. 8 in offensive DVOA last year and finished the regular season 11-6 and seeded third in the AFC playoff field.

Those numbers would probably be celebrated by every other organization in the league, but 11 regular-season wins marked the fewest of the Mahomes era. Kansas City’s status as 2.5-point road underdogs in Buffalo in the divisional round and 4-point road dogs in Baltimore in the AFC title game is absurd in hindsight, but those lines reflect how beatable this team looked for most of last season.

Below is a look at how much better the 2023 defense was than usual, per opponent-adjusted DVOA, as well as the offense’s “precipitious”* drop from recent seasons … all the way down to No. 8 in the NFL.

*a precipitous drop relative to the lofty Kansas City standard

Chiefs enter 2024 with upgraded cast around Mahomes, Kelce

• PFF OL Unit Ranking: No. 7
• PFF Receiving Unit (WRs, TEs) Ranking: No. 16
• PFF RB Unit Ranking: No. 18

Travis Kelce is entering his age-35 season, but based on his performance the last two years, no one should count on him slowing down any time soon.

With RB Isiah Pacheco coming into his own entering his third season (he has averaged an impressive 4.7 yards per attempt on 375 attempts in his first two seasons) and Rice expected to take a step forward*, two of the youngest players on the Chiefs offense have bright futures.

A recent shoulder injury will force free agent signing Marquise “Hollywood” Brown to miss time early this season. Nevertheless, the addition of Brown and fellow speedster Xavier Worthy (the No. 28 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft) will make this a more dangerous receiving corps than the one that did just enough to win Super Bowl 58.

*assuming, of course, that he avoids a suspension for his role in a six-car traffic accident in Dallas last spring

The Kansas City O-line lost starting left tackle Donovan Smith this offseason. But given that the 31-year-old remains a free agent in late August, it’s possible second-rookie Kingsley Suamataia will be an upgrade at LT.

The rest of last year’s starting O-line is back. The health of left guard Joe Thuney, right tackle Jawaan Taylor and backup tackle Wanya Morris is worth monitoring, though, as all three have missed time this preseason. If Thuney and/or Taylor miss extended time, that could hurt Kansas City early, especially against Baltimore in Week 1 and Cincinnati in Week 2.

Still, this offense is significantly better on paper than it was last year, which the rest of the NFL should find terrifying.

Will KC defense remain a strong suit despite key losses?

• PFF DL Unit Ranking: No. 14
• PFF Linebacker Unit Ranking: No. 12
• PFF Secondary Unit Ranking: No. 9

Chris Jones might be the only household name on the Kansas City defense, but it’s hard to imagine this young group taking a step back in 2024.

Each of the top three pass-rushers — Jones, George Karlaftis III and Charles Omenihu — from a front seven that helped the Chiefs pile up 57 sacks last year (second only to Baltimore) returns.

Linebackers Drue Tranquill, Nick Bolton and Leo Chenal form an underrated trio that should remain a strength following 2023 starter Willie Gay’s offseason move to New Orleans after three solid years in Kansas City.

And even without standout CB L’Jarius Sneed, the KC secondary remains imposing. Last year, it was then-second-year corner Trent McDuffie — not Sneed — who represented the KC defensive backfield on the All-Pro ballot.

KC will miss Sneed — who recorded an impressive 14 passes defensed last year — but the return of McDuffie, as well as nearly every other DB who played significant snaps in 2023, means this will remain a position of strength.

Kansas City Chiefs 2024 Best Bets

• Chiefs to win Super Bowl (best odds: +600 at FanDuel)
• Chiefs to win AFC (best odds: +350 at FanDuel)
• Chiefs win total: over 11.5 (best odds: -110 at Caesars)

Kansas City appears uniquely well-equipped to avoid the issues that typically trip up the reigning Super Bowl champ during the following season. This team has handled success incredibly well since 2018, and it’s coming off a year when it won it all in spite of some glaring weaknesses at key positions.

Thanks in large part to the AFC West drawing the NFC South, the Chiefs also have a manageable slate in 2024, especially for a reigning Super Bowl champ. Per SharpFootballAnalysis, the Chiefs have the 12th-easiest schedule in the NFL this season.

The upgrades at WR, assuming Rice, Brown and Worthy can stay on the field, should improve the passing game as long as Kelce’s production doesn’t suddenly drop off dramatically. At this point, only an injury to Mahomes and/or Kelce would justify skepticism of the Chiefs.

With that in mind, there’s almost no such thing as a bad bet on Kansas City — though their prices in the AFC West and “make the playoffs” markets offer little value.

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