College basketball predictions: Ride with favorites Kansas, Houston

This is the best Saturday of college basketball this season by a country mile. Three top-10 matchups litter the card and a handful of mid-major battles stand out, as well.

Here are two that have my attention:

No. 4 Houston at No. 8 Kansas

If Kansas being installed as a home underdog made you do a double-take, you’re not alone.

Over the last 34 years, Kansas has closed as an underdog on its home court just twice — in February 1989 as a short ’dog to top-ranked Oklahoma, and in February 2021 as a 4.5-point underdog to second-ranked Baylor.

They split those two games, losing in overtime to OU’s dynamic duo of Mookie Blaylock and Stacey King while upsetting Baylor by 13 at Phog Allen.

So why are the Jayhawks an underdog in this spot? Injuries and defense.

The Jayhawks have become a three-man team in the past month, relying heavily on Hunter Dickinson, Kevin McCullar Jr. and freshman Johnny Furphy. But now McCullar has a bone bruise on his knee.

The Jayhawks’ wing is averaging nearly 20/6/5 this season on 47 percent shooting from the field. Indications from coach Bill Self are that McCullar will play Saturday, but he won’t be 100 percent returning from that painful injury.

Kansas has fallen off defensively since the start of the new year. According to Bart Torvik’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric, KU is ranked 65th nationally since Jan. 1. In the first two months of the season, KU resided in the top 20. That’s good news for a Houston offense that is susceptible to scoring lulls.

When Kansas is trying to crack Houston’s defense, all I can say is “good luck.” The Cougars have the highest-rated defense in the country by a big margin. They lead the nation in effective field goal percentage defense, turn opponents over on 22 percent of their possessions (third) and rank third in three-point shooting defense (28.3 percent).

If you want to find a decent comp, you need to look at 2019 Texas Tech, which nearly won the national championship, or the 38-1 Kentucky Wildcats from 2015. That’s the rarefied air of this Houston defense.

Evan Miya’s rating of the top 25 most impactful defenders in the nation features four Cougars, including the top two in the nation (Jamal Shead, Ja’Vier Francis).

And finally, if you’re going to hand KU a loss on its home floor, you’re going to need to quiet the crowd, and Houston has a special weapon in that department.

The Cougars lead the nation in kill shots, which are runs of 10-0 or better. So far they’ve produced 27 of them this season while only conceding four. That’s the best margin of any team in the country and helps Kelvin Sampson’s teams destroy opponents’ will to win.

Recommendation: Houston -2.

Binghamton at Vermont

The Catamounts have long been the class of the America East, and as the conference bully, they’ve constantly picked on Binghamton. In their last 10 wins over this rival, Vermont has won by an average of 24 points per game.

Betting on College Basketball?

This season, after a sleepy start, the Cats have come alive with six straight wins, including three in a row on the road. Coach John Becker has credited his team’s depth for its turnaround.

This season, the conference pivoted to a Thursday/Saturday conference schedule, so depth has mattered more than usual. Nine Catamounts play 14-plus minutes per game for Becker and eight players have led UVM in scoring in the past nine games.

I would play this up to UVM -16.5.

Recommendation: Vermont -14.