Bet the Frogs: TCU Football at Kansas Jayhawks

Game Odds

NOTE: All lines are pulled from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change.

Moneyline: TCU +105; Kansas -125
Spread: Kansas -2
Total Points: 60

A matchup between teams that are winless against the spread this season (a combined 0-8) in a neutral site NFL stadium is about as much of a toss up as you can get. The Horned Frogs got demolished as a one-point favorite vs. SMU last week while the Jayhawks are coming off a four-point loss as one-point underdogs at West Virginia. This game opened with KU as a one-point favorite, but after receiving a reported 93% of money wagered the Jayhawks have ticked up slightly to this -2 position. It’s the same case for the over-under point total, with money pouring in on the over given these teams prolific offenses and struggling defenses, pushing the number up to an even 60. This would be the first time TCU would enter the game vs. Kansas as an underdog as a member of the Big 12, with the Frogs last covering in 2020 in Lawrence as 23-point favorites. For Saturday’s contest in Kansas City, both teams offensive strengths match perfectly against the other’s defensive weakness, which could lead to a high scoring affair.

Player Projections

Note: Player projections are pulled from PrizePicks and are subject to change

TCU

Josh Hoover, Pass Yards: 303.5
Savion Williams, Receiving Yards: 56.5
JP Richardson, Receiving Yards: 36.5
Jack Bech, Receiving Yards: 75.5
Cam Cook, Rush Yards: 52.5

Hoover has cleared this number by a wide margin in each game vs. FBS opponents this season and it appears to be the only way TCU can gain any positive yards this season. Jack Bech has been the breakout and top target on the season, but Richardson and Williams have also had major games this season, making it possible all three could hit the over if TCU again has to play catch up to stay in the game on Saturday. The Jayhawks sport the best cornerback duo the Frogs have faced yet this season, with Cobee Bryant & Mello Dotson set to lock things down on the outside, potentially preventing another smash spot from Hoover. As for Cook, it’s hard to believe this number is still over 50 and it’s harder to believe he gets there on Saturday after having just 59 total yards over the last two games combined, however it feels like he is due for a breakout eventually, right?

Kansas

Jalon Daniels, Pass Yards: 186.5
Jalon Daniels, Rush Yards: 29.5
Lawrence Arnold, Receiving Yards: 44.5
Luke Grimm, Receiving Yards: 60.5
Quentin Skinner, Receiving Yards: 31.5
Devin Neal, Rush Yards: 109.5

There is no number high enough for rushing yards against the TCU defense in 2024. Devin Neal is one of the best RBs in the nation and Jalon Daniels remains one of the most dynamic playmaking QBs. Neal is a -200 favorite at DraftKings to rush for 110+ yards, so hop on that number at PrizePicks while you can because Neal is sure to find ample open grass in Arrowhead Stadium on Saturday. The passing game is a different story in this one, and while the Horned Frogs have surrendered big days to big time wideouts, this game will be about an excellent rushing team up against a very bad rush defense. Daniels is averaging 156.5 pass yards per game and has not yet surpassed this number this season. Daniels is plenty talented and capable of pushing all these receivers over the number on Saturday, but there may just be little reason to air it out if Neal continues to rush over six yards per carry.