The Pants Predicts: Iowa at Minnesota

The Hawkeyes got back in the win column a week ago in their non-conference finale, but now things ratchet up a notch with the first road trip of the year and the first Big Ten matchup of 2024. Iowa looks for revenge after losing Floyd of Rosedale in heartbreaking fashion a year ago and start their conference slate in the win column.

Our friends over at DraftKings Sportsbook think that’s exactly what happens. DK has the Hawks favored by 2.5 points with an over/under at 35 total points. That’s moved down just slightly as the week has progressed and implies a final score of Iowa 18.75-16.25. Call in 19-16.

Here at The Pants, we’re not far off the folks in the desert. Our consensus is calling for Iowa to emerge on the right side of things in a 19-17. That would put us just barely on the over and just slightly on the Gophers with the points, despite calling for an outright Iowa win.

In terms of the individual predictions, the majority of us are calling for Iowa to win and even cover. There are a couple pessimists in the house, but perhaps the most concerning thing of all is the perma-bear mattcabel not being one of them.

Here’s a look at our individual predictions for Saturday’s matchup.

SirNicholas33

At Tuesday’s press conference, Kirk Ferentz seemed…salty. Last year’s Greatest Return Ever That Wasn’t, Floyd stuck in Siberia and then sleeping with PJ Fleck…Kirk’s gonna have the guys up for this one. You know it, I know it, they know it, everyone knows it. This is going to be a “use all of your timeouts just to piss everyone off on the other sideline” kind of game. Salty Kirk, Petty Kirk…in this game? Yes please. Yes yes yes.

Iowa stays clean in the turnover category and the defense straightens out the secondary breakdowns. Hawks win, and cover.

Prediction: Iowa 27, Minnesota 14

Bartt Pierce

After last year’s Cooper DeJean TD that wasn’t, I thought the Hawks would travel to Kinnick North and kick the stuffing out of the Rowers. After the debacle against Iowa State and losing to some dude named Troy at halftime, I’m not optimistic. Our punt coverage is suspect, our secondary looks gross, and quarterback play is inconsistent. Sigh. Go Hawks?

Prediction: Minnesota 23 – Iowa 10

GingerHawk

This is a critical game for the Hawks if they are to maintain hopes for a special season. They can’t afford another loss ahead of their trip to Columbus on October 5. Last week’s underwhelming victory over Troy left a mixed bag of reactions. The offense wasn’t terrible, I’ll take 462 yards and 38 points any day, and Cade had a solid, while not flashy, day. But the defense giving up big plays for the second straight week and special teams breakdowns are sounding alarm bells.

Last year’s game left a bad taste. This team wants revenge, and gets it. I think Iowa gets back on track and looks better on defense while the offense leans on Kaleb Johnson for another 100+ yard game with a few key plays by McNamara. A late Gopher touchdown makes us sweat a bit, but Iowa recovers an onside kick to bring Floyd home again.

Prediction: Iowa 21, Minnesota 17

Glendale Hawk

When we were reviewing the season in August, I don’t think any of us thought that this game would be make or break for the Hawkeyes, but here we are. Win at Minny and you get the pig and you keep some remnant of a playoff hope alive (an incredibly small one, but it’s non-zero). Lose and you’ll be staring down the barrell of an 8-4/7-5 type season and an empty trophy case (the Bull might hand around, but the trophy’s that matter will be gone).

Hopefully this team will show up with blood in their mouths looking for revenge after last year’s refball debacle and not play the kind of lackadaisical first half they had last week. I think it’s going to be close no matter what, but Iowa’s offense is just a little more developed and starting to gel pretty well (if only Cade would look down the field). It’ll be close, but Floyd is coming home.

Prediction: Iowa 24, Minnesota 20

mattcabel

for the first time this year, I’m legitimately stumped here. I don’t know how good either of these teams are. I’d like to say we go in and trounce them because everyone expects it to be close, but who knows. This team has some areas of major concern and the playbook is out there on how to score points against us. I’m going to give the Hawks the benefit of the doubt for this one because I want Floyd to come home, but if the Hawks lose, I’m not sure what will happen the rest of the season. I think it will be tight, but ultimately the Hawks pull out the dub.

Prediction: Iowa 19, Minnesota 14

MattReisener

Looking at the Xs and Os, there are plenty of reasons to be worried about this game, from Minnesota’s excellent run defense, to Iowa’s surprisingly shaky secondary, to the fact that this is the Hawks’ first road game of the year. However, this pick ultimately came down to five simple words:

It. Wasn’t. A. Fair. Catch.

Call it vengeance or call it karma, but I can’t see a world where Minnesota gets anything less than Iowa’s best shot in this contest. Expect a physical, low-scoring battle in which Iowa’s offense does just enough to book Floyd a one-way trip back to Iowa City.

Prediction: Iowa 17, Minnesota 14

JPinIC

I want to believe that this team is figuring things out. I want to believe the offense is on the verge of really clicking and that the defense is exactly what we thought it would be and that the deep shots early in the year would mean that absolutely does not happen the rest of the way. I want it.

But I just am not there yet. Phil is great but I think there’s a massive hole in the secondary and another one at QB in terms of downfield passing. I expect Fleck and the Gophers to sell out to stop Kaleb Johnson and the run and force Cade McNamara to take those deep shots.

On the other side of the ball, we know Fleck wants to run it over and over, but I would guess we see multiple shots down the field, particularly targeting Hall on double moves. I suspect they land at least one but Parker dials up a turnover on one as well. If Cade McNamara can avoid turning the ball over, I think Iowa emerges on top, but I’ll stick my neck out and say he ultimately underthrows a deep shot that ends up costing Iowa.

Prediction: Minnesota 20, Iowa 17

That’s how we see things playing out on Saturday night in Minneapolis. Let’s see your predictions in the comments below!