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Shock poll shows Harris leading Trump in Iowa

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Shock poll shows Harris leading Trump in Iowa


  • Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in Iowa by 47% to 44%, a shocking new poll showed just three days before Election Day.
  • The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll’s results came as a complete surprise to political observers, as no serious analyst has predicted that the Democratic nominee will defeat Trump in the state.
  • “It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming,” said J. Ann Selzer, whose company Selzer & Co. conducted the poll.

Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in Iowa by 47% to 44% among likely voters, according to a shocking new poll released Saturday night, just three days before Election Day.

Harris’ advantage is within the poll’s 3.4 percentage point margin of error, but her lead reflects a 7-point swing by voters in her favor since September.

The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll’s results came as a complete surprise to political observers, as no serious analyst has predicted that the Democratic nominee will defeat Trump in the state.

Neither candidate had campaigned in the state, which Trump has easily won in the past two presidential elections, since the presidential primaries concluded.

“It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming,” pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co told the Des Moines Register.

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“She has clearly leaped into a leading position.”

Selzer & Co. conducted the survey of 808 likely voters in Iowa from Monday to Thursday. Selzer’s company is highly respected by pollsters and her findings typically carry significant weight with political strategists.

Harris’ lead in the poll was powered by strong support from female voters, particularly older and politically independent ones.

“Age and gender are the two most dynamic factors that are explaining these numbers,” Selzer told the Register.   

The poll found that 3% of respondents supported independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who ended his campaign to back Trump. Kennedy remains on Iowa’s ballot.

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The same poll in September showed Trump leading Harris, the current vice president, by 4 percentage points. Trump led President Joe Biden, the then-presumptive Democratic nominee, by 18 percentage points in June.

Trump won the state by 8 percentage points in 2020 and 9 points in 2016.

The Republican’s campaign issued a memo Saturday night that called the poll an “outlier.”

The memo noted that the new Emerson College poll of likely Iowa voters, released earlier Saturday, showed Trump leading Harris by 53% to 43%.

“Both female and male voters in Iowa support Trump, women by a five-point margin, 51% to 46%, and men by a significant 17-point margin, 56% to 39%,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, in a post about the results. “Trump also leads among independents, 53% to 36%.”

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The Trump campaign memo said, “Des Moines Register is a clear outlier poll. Emerson College, released today, far more closely reflects the state of the actual Iowa electorate and does so with far more transparency in their methodology.”

This is a developing story, please check back for updates.



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After two decades, Iowa Events Center could get a new operator

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After two decades, Iowa Events Center could get a new operator


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The Iowa Events Center could soon get a new operator as Polk County leaders consider putting the complex’s management contract up for bid for the first time since its opening. 

Polk County officials are poised to bid out a management contract for the Iowa Events Center complex in downtown Des Moines as its current agreement with the Oak View Group expires this year.

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Polk County supervisors in mid-June voted 3-2 to hire the event center’s representative, JLL Consulting, to help select and oversee its next operator during the first year. That agreement will cost $197,500, county documents show. Outgoing supervisors Angela Connolly and Tom Hockensmith voted against the move.

Connolly said the county could use a consultant to better understand the complex’s operations and budget. Still, she and Hockensmith agreed it would be difficult for a new firm to outdo Oak View Group’s success.

“And it just seems to me that we are trying to fix something here that is not broken,” Hockensmith said.

The county-owned Iowa Events Center complex is Des Moines’ primary convention center and arena. The complex includes the EMC Expo Center — previously Hy-Vee Hall — Community Choice Convention Center and the Casey’s Center. Formerly the Wells Fargo Arena, the nearly 17,000-seat arena was renamed the Casey’s Center in July 2025.

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The events center has hosted acts such as Paul McCartney, Taylor Swift and The Eagles.

Oak View Group has managed the events center since acquiring in 2021 its original contractor, Global Spectrum/Spectra, which had held the contract since 2004. The firm describes itself as a full-service venue management company that helps clients host sports, live entertainment and conventions, according to the complex’s website.

The Iowa Events Center brought in about $1.8 million to the county in fiscal year 2025, which began July 1, 2024, general manager Chris Connolly told the Des Moines Register. As they close out the 2026 fiscal year, they’re projecting about $2 million in revenue. In the 2024 fiscal year, the events center had its best operating year, raking in more than $3 million, Connolly said.

He points to the firm’s role in selling the naming rights of the arena to Casey’s and the expo center to EMC Insurance. Before the arena opened in 2005, Wells Fargo paid $11.5 million for the naming rights for 20 years. Casey’s paid $18.3 million to have the rights for 10 years.

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Beyond the numbers, “we’ve forged relationships with these people for years and think that that is huge,” he said of partnerships with corporations like Casey’s and EMC.

Connolly said the Oak View Group was told last fall that the county would likely hire a consultant and the management contract could be out for bid. That’s standard practice, he said.

“None of it was a surprise. We get it,” Connolly said. “Like I said, I think our performance speaks for itself, so I’m not worried about that. If a consultant wants to come in and take a look at it, maybe there’s some efficiencies that can be improved.”

He said Oak View Group would bid on the contract should the county issue a request for proposals.

“I almost see this as going through a process … and whatever direction that goes, we’ll be ready for it,” Connolly said.

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Outgoing supervisor chair Matt McCoy told colleagues that bringing in JLL Consulting to help oversee a competitive bid process affirms the county’s responsibility to be transparent with taxpayers about its contracts.

“You do RFPs with long-term partners to keep each other honest and to make sure that you’re getting a rigorous review of investment of Polk County taxpayer dollars,” he said.

“And to just say we’re not going to do that, to me, it shorts the taxpayer. It tells the taxpayer that, you know, we have such a cozy relationship that we don’t even need to go out and check our numbers,” McCoy added.

Hockensmith pushed back, saying that Oak View Group’s revenue numbers are undisputed and calling McCoy’s comments vindictive.

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Supervisor Mark Holm said he views the action as primarily bringing JLL on board to evaluate operations and budgeting for the future.

JLL Consulting will help Polk County build a framework for the new operator contract, which includes ways to measure the complex’s success and details on monitoring the facility’s condition, according to county documents.

Virginia Barreda is the Des Moines and Polk County government reporter for the Register. She can be reached at vbarreda@dmreg.com.



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Vote: Class 1A Iowa High School Softball Midseason Player Of The Year

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Vote: Class 1A Iowa High School Softball Midseason Player Of The Year


With June rapidly finishing up, that means the Iowa high school softball season is preparing to enter the stretch run of the year.

The Iowa Girls High School Athletic Union State Softball Tournament will begin Monday, July 20, in Fort Dodge at Rogers Park, bringing together many of the top teams and players in the state. High School On SI Iowa currently provides a Top 25 state softball power rankings, so now, we need to see who the top players are.

Below are the nominees for the High School On SI Iowa Class 1A Softball Midseason Player of the Year in each classification. Stats listed with the player are from Bound and based on those numbers imputed as of June 26, 2026 at noon CT.

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Feel free to vote as many times as you like, with voting set to close on Friday, July 3, 2026 at 11:59 p.m. CT.

High School On SI Iowa Class 1A Softball Midseason Player Of The Year Nominees

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Rachel Eglseder, Edgewood-Colesburg, Senior

Eglseder owns a 16-5 record, striking out 225 batters with a 1.66 earned run average while adding 11 extra-base hits and 40 RBI at the plate.

Rylee Mudderman, Kee, Junior

Mudderman continues to be a difficult out, batting .488 this season with two homers, 11 doubles and four triples. She has driven in 38 and scored 35 times, stealing 10 bases.

Faith Shirbroun, St. Edmond, Senior

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Speaking of tough outs, Shirbroun owns a batting average of .606 this season, recording seven homers, 17 doubles and five triples. She has driven in 36 and scored 37 times, stealing 22 bases while setting several school records for hitting.

Sydney Lovrien, Clarksville, Senior

The ace for the defending state champions, Lovrien is 13-5 with 100 strikeouts in 86 innings pitched. She also has 23 hits and 21 RBI at the plate.

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Sam Kruckenberg, Mason City Newman Catholic, Senior

A veteran now, Kruckenberg owns an 18-4 record with 227 strikeouts and a 1.23 earned run average. She is batting .440 with five homers, 11 doubles and 23 RBI at the plate.

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About Our Midseason Player of the Year Voting

High School on SI voting polls are meant to be a fun, lighthearted way for fans to show support for their favorite athletes and teams. Our goal is to celebrate all of the players featured, regardless of the vote totals. Sometimes one athlete will receive a very large number of votes — even thousands — and that’s okay! The polls are open to everyone and are simply a way to build excitement and community around high school sports. Unless we specifically announce otherwise, there are no prizes or official awards for winning. The real purpose is to highlight the great performances of every athlete included in the poll.

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A new facility in Marshall County could spark more conservation on Iowa farms

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A new facility in Marshall County could spark more conservation on Iowa farms


The Iowa chapter of the Land Improvement Contractors of America (LICA) officially opened a new facility on its 80-acre demonstration farm in Marshall County Thursday.

Iowa LICA President Scott Bohle said having classroom and meeting space will make it easier to educate the next generation of professional contractors, along with government employees, lawmakers and students, to help conserve soil and water in the state.

Bohle said the building “gives people a place to gather, collaborate and continue the important work that defines our association.”

Just outside the new space are wetlands, terraces, sediment control basins, bioreactors and other features, which members have built since LICA purchased the farm near Melbourne in 2000.

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“We call it the one-stop shop, where you can see anything being put to practice by our landowners,” said Kelby Kiefer, executive director of Iowa LICA.

Together, these “edge-of-field” practices remove 50% of phosphates and almost 100% of the nitrates from the runoff of a 1,000-plus acre watershed, according to the association.

Adding more wetlands, saturated buffers and bioreactors across the state are a key part of Iowa’s Nutrient Reduction Strategy. It aims to cut nitrogen and phosphorus losses from farm fields by 41% and 29%, respectively.

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The strategy is part of a broader effort to reduce nutrient pollution in the state’s waterways and the Gulf of Mexico by 45% compared to the 1980-96 baseline period. It does not include a target date.

Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Mike Naig said the state has accelerated edge-of-field practices in recent years, in part through the Batch and Build model. The approach bundles projects in a targeted watershed to reduce costs and save time for farmers and contractors.

Nearly 150 nitrate reducing wetlands and around 500 saturated buffers, bioreactors and multi-purpose oxbows had been built in the state as of 2024. Thousands more will be needed to meet the state’s nutrient reduction targets.

“[Clean water is] something we need to be focused on, and we can be proud of the work that’s happened, but we know that we need to do more,” Naig said. “Buildings like this help.”

Naig said scaling up conservation infrastructure across the state will require more skilled contractors. He described them as the “critical link” between concepts and “getting things on the ground.”

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“It’s from that point where you say, ‘We have a design that’s ready to go, a willing landowner,’ but somebody needs to make it happen,” Naig said. “The land improvement contractor sits in that very important spot.”





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