Randy Peterson’s Big 12 predictions, Iowa State football vs. Kansas game preview

AMES – Jaylin Noel stood in a corner of Iowa State’s football interview room Tuesday, talking about everything from how the Cyclones’ passing game has progressed to what’s allowed him to return kicks so well.

Then someone asked the question of the moment:

Are the underclassmen ready for the program’s first prime-time month of November in a while?

“Oh yeah, for sure,” the junior said. “Everybody’s a little excited, but everybody knows what needs to be done. Nobody’s overwhelmed. Guys are excited, but it’s a good excitement. Guys will be ready to roll.”

This is the third time under coach Matt Campbell that the Cyclones enter November at least tied for first. He’s a look at the previous seven seasons:

2016: Tied with Kansas for last at 0-5.

2017: Tied with Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and TCU for first at 4-1.

2018: Tied for fourth at 3-2.

2019: Tied for third at 3-2.

More: Iowa State football’s defense key to its first-place resurgence

2020: Tied for first with Kansas State at 4-1, while Oklahoma State was 3-1.

2021: Fourth at 3-2.

2022: Last at 0-5.

2023: Tied for first at 4-1 with Oklahoma, Texas, Oklahoma State and Kansas State.

“The nice thing about being a freshman is, you don’t know it’s November,” Campbell said Tuesday. “You’re trying to get through the next day, and still learning what it takes to be successful.”

Safety Beau Freyler was on another side of the room, circled by reporters shortly after wrapping up Tuesday morning’s practice.

He was being quizzed about the Cyclones’ 13 interceptions in eight games, and their plan for Kansas’ versatile quarterback, Jason Bean.

“He’s got track speed,” Freyler said.

Then someone asked about playing in a sold-out stadium, and on a fall homecoming Saturday night in a game with first place on the line.

“It’s crazy,” Freyler said. “I really give it to all the fans. They make it really special.”

Night games are crazy most places throughout major college football. At Iowa State, Saturday night’s experience is expected to include fireworks and players breaking out the black uniforms.

“My favorite,” Freyler said. “They look the best. They’re the best.”

To win, Iowa State must continue its takeaway streak. What are the chances of that happening?

The Cyclones have an interception in five consecutive Big 12 games for the first time since 2005. The eye-popping 2023 season total of 13, includes five by Jeremiah Cooper. Injury-wise, Campbell said Cooper is 50-50 for Saturday, by the way. Kansas quarterback Jason Bean has been intercepted four times this season, including twice last Saturday against Oklahoma. Extending the turnover streak will be tough, although the Jayhawks have lost five of 11 fumbles.

We need a good start in the game that will keep the crowd into it.

I liked the Baylor game plan that included turning Rocco loose on the first possession. Six-yard scripted rush on the first play, 26-yard completion to Noel on the third play, and an 18-yard touchdown completion to Jayden Higgins on the fourth play. That’s called making an impressive early-game statement – a four-play, 55-yard, 90-second drive and gut punch to the home team. The Cyclones scored the first 17 points against Cincinnati with an open offensive plan. I’m expecting much of the same Saturday against a defense that’s allowed an average of 400 yards a game.

To what do we owe offensive line improvement?

New line coach Ryan Clanton’s mantra from the beginning has been he wants his guys to play with a nasty attitude. He wants them to be the meanest position group on the field. I’m not sure new center Jim Bonifas, a sophomore from Dubuque Senior, is getting enough credit. He’s started all eight games after playing in just two last season. James Neal has started all games at left tackle, Jarrod Hufford has started them all at either left or right guard, and Tyler Miller is an eight-game starter at right tackle. Grant Treiber, Brendan Black and Jake Remsburg are in the rotation at right guard. There’s good depth, and maybe most important, there’s been zero major injuries.

No. 21 Kansas (3-2, 6-2) at Iowa State (4-1, 5-3)

Time, TV, line: 6 p.m., ESPN, Iowa State by 2

Why Iowa State has the edge: Running backs Eli Sanders and Cartevious Norton are coming off a Baylor game in which they combined for 148 yards and two touchdowns on 24 carries. The Cyclones, averaging 166.7 rushing yards the past three games, will be facing a Kansas team against whom opponents have averaged 174.6 yards each games.

Why Kansas has the edge: Kansas quarterback Jason Bean doesn’t have eye-opening passing statistics. He’s a solid threat to run. He’s great, however, at making plays. That means Freyler and Malik Verdon must be on A-games more than usual; Bean is dangerous outside the pocket.

Prediction: Two questions loom above all others – Is Iowa State ready for what is shaping up to be a prime-time month of November, and is Kansas back to earth after last Saturday’s huge win against Oklahoma? My hunch is yes and yes. If the Cyclones can make a point early – either on offense, defense or special teams – energy from the homecoming crowd could be suffocating. And Iowa State has been known to open the playbook as quickly as the first possession. Stay in your seat, because this has the makings of a close game. IOWA STATE 27, KANSAS 24.

No. 23 Kansas State (4-1, 6-2) at No. 7 Texas (4-1, 7-1)

Time, TV, line: 11 a.m., FOX, Texas by 4

Prediction: Chris Kleiman has beaten each Big 12 team except Texas. It’d be a shame if the Longhorns fled before the Waterloo native accomplished that. If Kansas State can force new Texas quarterback Maalik Murphy from his comfort zone, then there’s a great opportunity to for a major outcome in the Longhorns’ stadium. KANSAS STATE 20, TEXAS 17.

No. 9 Oklahoma (4-1, 7-1) at No. 22 Oklahoma State (4-1, 6-2)

Time, TV, line: 2:30 p.m., ABC, Oklahoma by 6.

Prediction: The nation’s third-longest continuous rivalry will end at 114 years, considering Oklahoma is moving to the SEC. The Sooners will concentrate on trying to stop national rushing leader Ollie Gordon. The question then becomes can Cowboys quarterback Alan Bowman be good enough to win the game? OKLAHOMA 34, OKLAHOMA STATE 27

Houston (1-4, 3-5) at Baylor (2-3, 3-5)

Time, TV, line: 2:30 p.m., ESPN+, Baylor by 5

Prediction: Which coach gets canned first, Houston’s Dana Holgorsen or Baylor’s Dave Aranda? The Bears, I believe, are the best of the two not very good teams that will show up at their McLane Stadium.  BAYLOR 24, HOUSTON 21.

UCF (0-5, 3-5) at Cincinnati (0-5, 2-6)

Time, TV, line: 2:30 p.m., FS1, UCF by 4 ½

Prediction: Who really cares outside of Orlando and Cincinnati? UCF 24, CINCINNATI 10.

BYU (2-3, 5-3) at West Virginia (3-2, 5-3)

Time, TV, line: 6 p.m., FS1, West Virginia by 9

Prediction: BYU is chartering 4,000 miles roundtrip – only to lose a game in which both teams need one victory to be bowl-eligible.  WEST VIRGINIA 28, BYU 24.

TCU (2-3, 4-4) at Texas Tech (2-3, 3-5)

Time, TV, line: 6 p.m., FS1, Texas Tech by 3

Prediction: Can a team really go from playing in college football’s national championship, to staying home during the following bowl season? TCU needs two wins among remaining games against Texas Tech, Texas, Baylor and Oklahoma to prevent that happening  TCU 30, TEXAS TECH 27.

Iowa State columnist Randy Peterson is in his 51st year writing sports for the Des Moines Register. Reach him at rpeterson@dmreg.com, on X @RandyPete, and at DesMoinesRegister.com/CyclonesTexts