Preview, Prediction: Iowa-Kentucky Football

IOWA CITY, Iowa – Iowa and Kentucky are working it again within the New Yr’s Eve Music Metropolis Bowl in Nashville. It is a rematch of final yr’s Citrus Bowl in Orlando. 

It isn’t usually we see Energy 5 colleges assembly up in back-to-back bowl video games. And this one is being frowned upon by faculty soccer followers outdoors of the fan bases, particularly by the parents at SB Nation. 

The Music Metropolis might check the idea that there are not any unhealthy bowl video games. With oddsmakers placing the over/underneath whole for the sport at 31.5 factors, it is being considered as a defensive battle/offensive wrestle. 

The Wildcats prevailed, 20-17, in final season’s Citrus as a 3.0-point favourite with a complete of 44.0. They possessed the ball for 37 minutes, 54 seconds regardless of averaging simply 2.6 yards on 47 speeding makes an attempt. 

Saturday’s matchup is as a lot about who will not be enjoying as who is anticipated to line up. Neither staff may have its beginning quarterback. 

Iowa’s high two gamers on the place – Spencer Petras (damage) and Alex Padilla (portal) – aren’t obtainable, leaving the beginning gig for redshirt freshman Joe Labas, who will likely be enjoying in his first faculty recreation. His backup, true freshman Carson Might, additionally can be seeing his first Hawkeye motion if he had been to get into the sport. 

Kentucky starter Will Levis is sitting out getting ready for the NFL Draft, the place he could possibly be a first-round decide. Harmful Wildcat working again Christopher Rodriguez Jr. (5.2 yards per carry) is also passing on the sport as is beginning Hawkeye robust security Kaevon Merriweather. 

Whereas Labas appears just like the man for Iowa, the image is not as clear for Kentucky. Hypothesis factors to true freshman Destin Wade starting the sport behind heart, Kaiya Sheron and former Hawkeye Deuce Hogan are also being talked about as prospects. 

Past the absence of skilled quarterbacks, the sport options two of the nation’s stingiest defenses. Iowa ranks sixth nationally in scoring protection (14.42 factors per recreation). The Wildcats verify in at No. 11 (19.08). 

Kentucky (7-5 total, 3-5 SEC) has held 15 of its final 16 opponents to 24 factors or much less. The Hawkeyes restricted opponents to 13 or fewer factors in 9 of 12 video games, eight opponents at 10 or fewer factors and three at three or fewer factors in ’22. It’s the first time since 1929 that the protection has allowed 10 or fewer factors in eight video games. 

The Wildcats characteristic gifted freshmen receivers in Barion Brown and Dane Key. The staff’s high two cross catchers have a mixed for 76 receptions for 1,076 yards and 10 touchdowns. Senior receiver Tayvion Robinson, a Virginia Tech switch, has 35 catches for 470 yards and three scores. 

After Rodriguez Jr., senior Kavosiey Smoke (59 carries, 277 yards, 1 landing) and junior JuTahn McClain (49-238-0) are the staff’s main rushers. McLain is coming off a 10-carry, 50-yard efficiency within the regular-season finale in opposition to Louisville and has 19 carries for 117 yards and 6 receptions in the course of the staff’s ultimate three contests. 

Kentucky’s offensive recreation plan could possibly be attention-grabbing. It is with no coordinator after Wealthy Scangarello was fired in November following one season in Lexington. Former Wildcat OC Liam Coen, who left to grow to be the Los Angeles Rams offensive coordinator this yr, is reportedly coming again to that function in ’23. 

On protection, Kentucky is led by do-it-all senior outdoors linebacker Jordan Wright. It is a committee unit with 15 totally different guys having at the least .5 of a sack and no one with greater than three. Nineteen totally different Wildcats have a sort out for loss. 

The sport probably will see conservative offensive plans with the inexperience behind heart and expertise on each defenses. Poor climate situations might cement that technique for the coaches. 

Along with being with out its high two quarterbacks, the Hawkeyes will likely be with out beginning receiver Arland Bruce IV (19-187-1), who entered the switch portal this month. Fellow receiver Keagan Johnson is also transferring however solely appeared in two video games in ’22. 

Labas was verbally dedicated to Ball State earlier than Iowa provided him a scholarship later within the ’21 recruiting cycle. It represented is lone Energy 5 provide. Might arrived at Iowa this previous summer time after selecting the Hawkeyes forward of affords from Western Michigan and Outdated Dominion. 

Iowa seems to have shuffled its offensive line for the reason that regular-season finale in opposition to Nebraska, in keeping with the most recent depth chart launched by the varsity. Redshirt freshman Gennings Ducker is listed because the No. 1 proper guard rather than Nick DeJong, who takes excessive spot at proper sort out from Jack Plumb. 

The Hawkeye entrance has been leaky, to say the least, this season. There is a good probability we see rotations up there on this recreation. 

Because it does in most video games, Iowa holds a bonus with its specialists. Kicker Drew Stevens and punter Tory Taylor might play necessary roles on Saturday. 

The Hawkeye system for profitable the final two seasons has centered on dominant protection, robust particular groups, and offensive soccer that limits errors and takes benefit of what the opposite two phases present. That may appear to be the strategy within the Music Metropolis. 

Iowa (7-5, 5-4) posted a 5-1 document in the course of the common season when it didn’t commit a turnover. The lone loss was the 27-14 dwelling setback to No. 4 Michigan on Oct. 1.

TV ANNOUNCERS: Matt Barrie, Louis Riddick and Harry Lyles, Jr. on ABC. 

SERIES: The Hawkeyes are 0-1 all-time in opposition to Kentucky, falling 20-17 to the Wildcats within the ’22 Citrus Bowl in Orlando. Iowa is 6-6 all-time in opposition to opponents from the Southeastern Convention in bowl video games.

BETTING LINES: Iowa opened as a 3.0-point underdog. As of Monday morning,  the Hawkeyes had been wager to a 2.5-point favourite at 4 of the eight books within the Vegas Inside consensus. The full opened at 31.5 and dropped to 31.0 Monday morning at the entire VI books.

TRENDS

-Kentucky is 13-3-1 In opposition to The Unfold (ATS) in its final 17 non-conference video games.

-Beneath is 13-3 in Wildcats’ final 16 video games total.

-Iowa is 3-0-1 ATS in its final 4 bowl video games.

-Beneath is 7-0 in Hawkeyes’ final 7 non-conference video games.

KENTUCKY PLAYERS TO WATCH

–Barion Brown, WR/KR – The Wildcat freshman led the staff in receptions (45) and receiving yards (604) whereas catching 4 touchdowns in ’22. He earned second-team, freshman all-American staff honors from The Athletic as a kick returner. In that function, he returned 15 kicks for 424 yards (28.3 YPR) and a rating. 

–Jordan Lovett, FS – The Faculty Soccer Information named Lovett as freshman all-American after pacing Kentucky with 59 whole tackles (34 solo). He tied for the staff lead with two interceptions, and in addition contributed 1.5 tackles for loss, two cross breakups and a quarterback hurry. 

–Jordan Wright, LB – The Fort Lauderdale, Fla. native chips in everywhere in the Kentucky protection. He ranks second on the unit with 58.0 tackles (29 solo) and leads the squad with 8.5 tackles for loss. He added a sack, an interception, three cross breakups, seven quarterback hurries, a pressured fumble and a fumble restoration. 

KEYS TO VICTORY

Kentucky: Cease Iowa’s working recreation and put stress on inexperienced quarterback. 

Iowa: Handle the soccer on offense then money in when protection and particular groups supplies alternative.

GAME NOTES

-Kentucky is 12-9 all-time in bowl video games. The Cats are showing in a school-record seventh straight bowl. The Cats have received their final 4 bowl video games.

-Kentucky is showing within the Music Metropolis Bowl for the sixth time, essentially the most of any taking part colleges. The Cats have a 2-3 document within the Music Metropolis Bowl, defeating Clemson (2006) and Florida State (2007) and shedding to Syracuse (1999), Clemson (2009) and Northwestern (2017).

-The Wildcats have had 41 totally different offensive and defensive gamers begin at the least one recreation this season, which is twelfth most within the nation. New Mexico leads the nation with 50 totally different starters in 2022.

-That is head coach Mark Stoops’ tenth yr as head coach at UK, making him the longest tenured coach in program historical past. With Kentucky’s win at then-No. 12/19 Florida on Sept. 10, the Iowa alumnus surpassed Paul “Bear” Bryant because the winningest head coach in program historical past and now has a 66-58 total document.

-The Wildcats have 40 wins within the final four-plus seasons, which is the fifth most within the SEC and tied for sixteenth amongst Energy 5 packages. They’re tied for second within the SEC East with Florida (54) in wins from 2016 – current (54) and solely behind Georgia (78).

-The Hawkeyes held eight opponents at 10 or fewer factors in the course of the common season – a primary for this system since 1929. Iowa is limiting opponents to 277.9 yards and 14.4 factors per recreation. 9 Hawkeye defenders earned All-Massive Ten recognition.

-Iowa linebackers Jack Campbell and Seth Benson have mixed for 206 tackles this season. The 2 All-Massive Ten linebackers have mixed for 546 tackles of their Hawkeye careers; Campbell is nineteenth all-time with 295 and Benson is thirty fourth with 251.

-Campbell is the twenty ninth Hawkeye to earn consensus All-America honors and the thirteenth to be a unanimous consensus first-team All-American. It’s the fourth straight yr Iowa has had a consensus All-American. Beneath Kirk Ferentz, 26 gamers have earned first-team All-America standing.

-Hawkeye tight finish Sam LaPorta is the second Hawkeye to earn the Kwalick-Clark Massive Ten Tight Finish of the Yr Award and he was one in all three finalists for the John Mackey Award, which is given to the nation’s high tight finish.

-Iowa working again Kaleb Johnson, an honorable point out Freshman All-American and honorable point out All-Massive Ten choice, has three 100-yard video games this season – essentially the most by a Hawkeye freshman working again in program historical past. Johnson has a freshman document 762 yards on 142 makes an attempt this season with a team-high six touchdowns to go together with a team-best 1,114 all-purpose yards.

NOTABLE ALUMNI

Kentucky – Wes Cowan

Iowa – Kirsten Ulve

HOWE I SEE IT: The prolonged forecast is asking for rain in the course of the recreation. That appears applicable for this one.

It is exhausting figuring out what to anticipate from these groups. They’re with out their high quarterbacks on offenses that proved woefully inconsistent for a lot of ’22. 

I believe each packages are constructed on stable foundations with powerful student-athletes and a mindset of profitable every time competing. I do not anticipate both aspect being content material with simply displaying up. 

It’s going to come right down to a play or two within the fourth quarter. Whichever staff delivers in crunch time will hoist the trophy. 

I am going to go along with the outfit possessing essentially the most dominant unit. That is Iowa’s protection. 

PREDICTION: Iowa 13, Kentucky 10