Poll: Trump’s Record Lead in Iowa Is Growing

The shrinking of the field of Republican candidates has benefited Donald Trump more than any of his rivals in Iowa, where he holds a “commanding” lead five weeks before the caucuses, pollsters say. According to a Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom poll, the former president is now the first pick of 51% of likely caucusgoers, up from 43% in October. Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley were both at 16% in October. Haley is stuck on 16% and DeSantis has gone up to 19%, according to the poll. Vivek Ramaswamy, who has visited almost all of Iowa’s 99% counties, is at 5%, a percentage point ahead of Chris Christie, who has focused on New Hampshire and hasn’t campaigned in Iowa.

“The field may have shrunk, but it may have made Donald Trump even stronger than he was,” pollster J. Ann Selzer says. “I would call his lead commanding at this point. There’s not much benefit of fewer candidates for either Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley.” Selzer notes, however, that the caucuses can be unpredictable and that Rick Santorum had a surprise victory in 2012. NBC reports that Trump’s lead is the biggest ever recorded in a competitive GOP race this close to the caucuses. In 2016, Ted Cruz won with 27.6% to Trump’s 24.3%, with Marco Rubio a close third. Trump claimed Cruz “stole” the victory through fraud and called for the vote to be held again.

The poll found that 49% of respondents had made their minds up, while 46% said they could be persuaded to choose another candidate. Some 30% had DeSantis as their second choice, compared to 17% for Haley and 14% for Ramaswamy. Trump leads in every age group, and among independents as well as Republicans. The poll also found that Trump, more than any other candidate, was seen as a “Goldilocks” choice on ideology, the Register reports. Some 71% said his views were “about right,” while 18% considered him too conservative and 7% considered him too moderate. (Read more Election 2024 stories.)