Democrats are banking on a high-stakes, long-shot win in Iowa.

The Hawkeye State voted for President Donald Trump by 13 points in 2024 and hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 2008. Still, Democrats are optimistic that a perfect storm of soaring gas and healthcare costs, tariffs and an unpopular president could help them flip the Senate seat blue.

But Democrats first must get through a contentious June 2 primary between state Sen. Zach Wahls and state Rep. Josh Turek before they can even turn their attention to the presumptive GOP nominee, Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa).

The clash is a microcosm of the establishment moderate-versus-progressive insurgent battle raging within the Democratic Party, an ideological tussle that could cost them in November.

Wahls, a more left-wing candidate backed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), has made opposition to Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer a major part of his message.

“When I’m doing my stump speech and tell people that on the first day of this campaign, I made a promise not to support Chuck Schumer for leader, the room — without any explanation — just spontaneously bursts into applause,” Wahls said in an interview.

Turek, who flipped a GOP-held Iowa Senate seat blue in 2022 and is the favored pick of Schumer’s allies, says Wahls is focused on the wrong issues.

“Wahls is out here running against Schumer. I’m out here running against Donald Trump and Ashley Hinson,” Turek declared. “In the thousands of doors that I’ve knocked, I’ve never heard a single Iowan talk to me about minority leadership.”

Wahls and Turek face off in the first head-to-head primary debate tonight. Warren is stumping for Wahls in Des Moines on May 10.

Some ad news. Outside groups are taking notice — and spending big. VoteVets is dropping another $800,000 on a pro-Turek ad buy starting Tuesday. The group, dedicated to electing Democrats with military service, has spent $6.7 million boosting Turek to date. In the new spot, a retired Army National Guard colonel says Turek will root out corruption and oppose Trump.

We’ll note Turek isn’t a veteran. But Turek’s father served in Vietnam, and his exposure to Agent Orange while serving contributed to Turek’s being born with spina bifida.

VoteVets first started spending for Turek on March 24.

Electability squabbles. In conversations with the Iowa Democratic hopefuls, both candidates insist they’re the only person who can beat Hinson in the fall.

“Zach comes from the bluest district in the state, a [Kamala] Harris +38 district. He’s never even run against a Republican,” Turek said. “This isn’t the time to be experimenting.”

Wahls countered that his record of opposing Democratic leadership will resonate with disaffected voters of all stripes.

“It is easier to draw that contrast [with Hinson] if you can tell people that you don’t owe Chuck Schumer a damn thing and that you don’t care about party bosses in either party,” Wahls said. “We can draw that contrast much, much more effectively than Josh can.”

Turek said he didn’t know if he would vote for Schumer as leader if elected.

“I need to get up there. I’m not measuring the drapes first,” Turek said.

State of play. Despite Iowa’s recent red tilt, Turek and Wahls argue that because the state’s farm industry has been hit hard by Trump’s tariffs and higher gas prices, the president is no longer popular among Iowans.

Democrats are also optimistic that gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand will provide a lift to the rest of the ticket. Sand, the state auditor, is running a well-received campaign and is polling competitively with the GOP frontrunner, Rep. Randy Feenstra.

Iowa is a reach state for Democrats and exists outside of the core Senate map for the party. But in a blue wave environment where control of the chamber is in play, Democratic wins in states like Iowa could help push the party to the 51 seats needed to win a majority.

GOP view. Hinson has boosted Wahls by labeling him the “soon-to-be Democrat nominee” in social media posts. It’s a sign that some Iowa Republicans view Wahls as the more preferable general election candidate.

“With momentum building behind Wahls, time will tell if Schumer can carry his candidate across the finish line,” NRSC spokesperson Samantha Cantrell said in a statement.

Republicans are gleeful at the spate of competitive primaries dividing Democrats in key states. After the Maine primary where progressives came out on top, there are also Schumer-skeptical liberals running in Minnesota and Michigan.

Opposing Schumer may appeal to some Democratic primary voters, but the sentiment doesn’t directly impact his standing as leader. As long as Senate Democrats win the races they need to win in November, the New York Democrat is unlikely to be challenged for his job.

Happening today. Voters in Ohio and Indiana head to the ballot box for primary day.

Republicans will decide their candidate to face Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur. Derek Merrin is the favorite against state Rep. Josh Williams and former ICE official Madison Sheahan. This is a rightward-shifting district.

Air Force veteran Eric Conroy is favored to take on Democratic Rep. Greg Landsman.

Indiana. There aren’t any steeply competitive primaries in any battleground seats in Indiana. The one to watch is Indiana’s 1st District, where Republicans have an outside chance to knock off Democratic Rep. Frank Mrvan. Republicans are excited by Barb Regnitz.

DES MOINES, Iowa (KCRG) – Iowa gas prices have topped $4 per gallon for the first time since 2022, averaging $4.11 a gallon.

According to GasBuddy, prices jumped 15 cents from Sunday night to Monday, up from $3.84 on Wednesday. Prices have risen 61 cents in the past month.

Iowa gas prices are $1.18 higher than a year ago. The highest recorded average in Iowa was $4.77 per gallon in June 2022.

Nationally, Georgia has the lowest average gas price at $3.85 per gallon, while California has the highest at $6.08.

Lost in the shuffle of the 2026 midterms — the unprecedented mid-decade redistricting, President Trump’s sagging favorability numbers and Democrats’ hopes of retaking the House and potentially the Senate — is an election story that could have implications for 2028 and beyond.

In 23 states, including five presidential swing states, candidates who have denied election results are running for offices that will have a direct role in certifying future elections.

That is according to a new analysis, shared exclusively with NPR ahead of its release, by States United Action, a nonprofit that seeks to protect elections and has been tracking candidate positions on the validity of election results since 2022.

“The goal is to be able to provide voters with the most accurate information possible,” said Joanna Lydgate, States United’s CEO, “and understand exactly what these candidates stand for and whether they fundamentally believe in free and fair elections in this country.”

In total, 39 states are holding elections this year for statewide positions that interact with elections, either for secretary of state or governor, which depending on the state has a role in administering or certifying elections, or for attorney general, which interprets and enforces election laws.

States United found at least 53 election-denying candidates are vying for those jobs at this point in the midterm cycle.

To define which candidates qualify for the title, States United tracks whether candidates meet at least one of five criteria, including whether they’ve falsely claimed Trump was the rightful winner in 2020 or if they’ve supported efforts to undermine results after audits and legal challenges were completed.

In most states, the elected position with the most direct responsibility over how elections run is secretary of state. These typically bureaucratic jobs took on new meaning in 2020, when officials from both parties faced unprecedented pressure from Trump and his allies to influence the results.

In Georgia, Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger declined Trump’s request to “find” 11,780 votes. In Michigan, Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson had armed protesters descend on her home in the weeks after voting ended.

Both swing states will elect new secretaries of state and governors this year, and both states currently have people in the running who have denied election results.

In Arizona, another presidential battleground, people who deny election results are running for all three critical statewide positions, according to States United’s analysis.

In 2020, Arizona’s Republican governor at the time, Doug Ducey, faced pressure from Trump to interfere in the certification process but declined to do so.

This year, however, the front-runner for the GOP nomination for governor in Arizona, Andy Biggs, voted not to certify those election results while he was serving in the U.S. House, and even made a call to a key state lawmaker at the time to investigate other ways to interfere with the process.

“We’ve watched these state officials on both sides of the aisle stand up and push back when Trump has tried to interfere with elections and election results in the past,” Lydgate said. “We know that they will do that again. But it’s incredibly important that we elect people who believe in our system and who believe in free and fair elections.”

Compared with recent cycles, the number of election deniers running this year in statewide races is actually down. Lydgate attributes that to state-level candidates realizing it’s a “bad campaign strategy” in places that will have competitive races come November.

“Election denial is not something that American voters like, and candidates who’ve run on that platform have paid a real price in the past,” Lydgate said.

After the 2022 midterms, an NPR analysis found that Republican secretary of state candidates who denied the results of the 2020 election generally underperformed other GOP candidates in competitive states. A separate analysis of the same election by States United estimated the penalty for election denial to be roughly 3 percentage points.

Candidates running in states Trump won by double digits, or in crowded primaries where they are seeking Trump’s endorsement, clearly aren’t being dissuaded by that data however.

Brendan Fischer, who leads research into efforts to undermine elections at the Campaign Legal Center, says a powerful “election denial infrastructure” has cropped up since 2020, which has proven effective at moving candidates and lawmakers toward false theories about voting and policy responses to that misinformation.

“The election denier movement still represents a tiny, tiny minority of the country,” Fischer said. “But it is an energized and active force within Republican politics. It’s an organized interest group that [Republican candidates and lawmakers] need to be at least somewhat responsive to.”

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