Joel Klatt has seen Michigan football in person this season, but he hasn’t seen Iowa live just yet. Even still, the premier Fox Sports college football analyst has some pretty good insight into what to expect from both the Wolverines and Hawkeyes in the Big Ten opener on Saturday.
While there is a lot of confidence coming out of Iowa City thanks to the play of quarterback Hank Brown and receiver Tony Diaz, Klatt said on his podcast that he doesn’t believe it’s going to be easy for the Hawkeyes to move the ball through the air against the Wolverine defense.
“It’s hard for me to see how Iowa is going to be able to throw the ball in this game,” Klatt said. “We saw how good Michigan’s defense can be really in every game, but, but namely that game against Oklahoma, which was not a great offense. And I know Mateer struggled, and then they’ve since struggled against New Mexico, but they just had no ability to create an explosive play or gain separation. They have Isaiah Sategna. So can Iowa throw the football?
“I want you to pay attention to the tight end for Iowa, not just because it’s Iowa, but because that’s the best matchup. If you’re looking at the Michigan defense, you’re seeing a lot of man coverage. I think it’s going to be almost impossible to throw it against their corners. They play with three of them: Smith Snowden, Jyaire Hill, and Zeke Berry. These guys are excellent cover men.”
Klatt did note that he’s curious to see how Iowa tight end DJ Vonnahme will fare in the middle of the field — after all, Oklahoma tight end Rocky Beers had some success on crossing routes vs. Michigan. Vonnahme was listed as questionable on the Wednesday evening injury report.
While Klatt thinks that Michigan is a bad matchup for Iowa, likewise, he believes that Iowa is a bad matchup for Michigan.
With the zone (quarters) coverage that Phil Parker has employed for decades, Klatt believes that attacking the middle of the field is actually a bad idea for Bryce Underwood and company. Likewise, he’s curious about Michigan’s misdirection style in the run game and how usable that will be against the Hawkeyes.
“Now for Michigan’s offense in this game, I think this is actually a really bad matchup for Michigan’s offense because of the style of defense that Iowa utilizes, which is heavy zone,” Klatt said. “They’re not going to get upfield. They’re not going to necessarily attack unless it’s third down, and then they’ll get creative with the blitz structure. But you’re going to see a lot of quarters coverage, low safeties. Again, go and check out these Understanding Football videos.
“Quarters coverage, low safeties, eyes in the backfield, zone coverage. That’s difficult for a quarterback because the style of run game that Michigan likes to use — which was what Utah liked to use — likes to use misdirection. A lot of RPOs, a lot of the heavy jet run fake, and then quarterback power. So you’re trying to get some lateral movement and stretch in the defense and then attack the seams. Much more doable, I would say, if you’re facing a team that likes to run man coverage or brackets. When the linebackers are constantly looking different directions, you can get movement. But Iowa kind of sits there and they let you do what you do, and then they rally up, make the tackle. When that happens, it puts a lot of stress on the offense because all the eyes are in the backfield. It puts a lot of stress on the quarterback.
“I think Bryce Underwood is going to be under some stress in this one. They create tight windows with that zone coverage. They thrive on tips and overthrows. So if I’m Michigan, I do not have a heavy middle-of-field passing game against this Iowa defense. I just wouldn’t do it. I know a lot of their RPOs like to go over the middle of the field. Those safeties are going to be sitting there, eyes on the backfield. They know their run fit, but they also know the passing structure behind them. I think that would be a dangerous area to be throwing the football if you were Michigan.”
Regardless of both teams being a bad matchup for the other, Klatt does believe that the Wolverines end up pulling out a narrow win.
“I think field position and turnovers are going to be the key in this game,” Klatt said. “Michigan is favored by five and a half. I think Michigan wins a low-scoring affair. I could see this being a field goal fest, 13-10. Think field position. I’m going to take the five and a half for Iowa. I’m going to say Michigan wins 13-10, but Iowa, I’ll take the five and a half.”