Iowa vs. Iowa State score prediction by expert college football model

Three of the last four wins the Iowa State Cyclones have picked up in the Cy-Hawk Trophy series have come on the road, and they’ll look for a fourth in five tries against the No. 21 Iowa Hawkeyes in college football’s Week 2 action on Saturday.

The rivalry is split the last two seasons, and the Hawkeyes are coming off a 20-13 victory over the Cyclones in last year’s game, while Iowa State won a 10-7 decision the year before. Otherwise, Iowa has dominated in the last decade, winning 8 of the last 10 meetings.

Iowa’s infamously unproductive offense took what appeared to be an important step forward in this season’s opener, posting a 40-0 victory over Illinois State in which quarterback Cade McNamara passed for 251 yards and threw three touchdown passes, and the Hawkeye ground game amassed 241 yards and averaged 6 yards per carry while Kaleb Johnson scored twice.

Iowa State handled North Dakota in a 21-3 win last week, as quarterback Rocco Becht threw two touchdown passes and ran for a third, but the Cyclones’ rushing attack finished with just 86 yards while back Abu Sama ran 5 times for 36 yards.

What can we expect in the matchup? For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of what to watch as Iowa and Iowa State re-new the Cy-Hawk Trophy series on Saturday.

The simulations favor the Hawkeyes to pull out a close win over the Cyclones this week.

SP+ predicts that Iowa will defeat Iowa State by a projected score of 21 to 14 and to win the game by an expected 7.8 points.

The model gives the Hawkeyes a 69 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

Iowa is a 3 point favorite against Iowa State, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 35.5 points for the game.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Iowa at -162 and for Iowa State +134.

If you’re using this projection to bet on the game, you should take…

Other analytic tools suggest the Hawkeyes will take down the Cyclones this week.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Iowa is projected to win the game in 71.8 percent of the computer’s calculations, while Iowa State comes out the expected winner in the remaining 28.2 percent of sims.

The model projects Iowa will be 6.5 points better than Iowa State on the same field in both teams’ current composition, enough to cover the spread.

Iowa will win 7.7 games this season, according to the index, which projects the team has a 2.4 percent chance to win the Big Ten championship.

The model projects Iowa State will win 6.2 games this year and has a 1.5 percent shot to win the Big 12 championship.

When: Sat., Sept. 7
Time: 2:30 p.m. Central
TV: CBS network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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