Iowa State at Kansas State: 3 keys and a score prediction

Cyclones are heavier underdogs than they’ve been against any team all season

Kansas State remains alive in its quest for a second straight Big 12 Conference football title, but it must beat Iowa State on Saturday night and get a little help elsewhere to ensure it attains a spot in the title game.

The Cyclones are heavier underdogs than they’ve been against any team all season and a win over the Wildcats would certainly improve their standing in the Big 12’s bowl pecking order.

Pride also plays a significant role in the power dynamics of this game. It’s senior night in Manhattan and 24 players will be honored at Bill Snyder Family Stadium.

The Wildcats have won 10 of their past 13 senior day/night matchups, including a 27-17 triumph over ISU in 2019. The Cyclones’ seniors could help their program beat Kansas State for the fourth time in the past six meetings after enduring a 10-game losing streak before that partial reversal of fortune.

Here are threek yeys to victory for the Cyclones.

1. Find a ground game

Whether it’s passing to set up the run, or involving quarterback Rocco Becht more in the rushing attack, Iowa State needs to find at least a modest measure of success on the ground on Saturday.

But how? If the aforementioned methods don’t work, the Cyclones may be forced to be one-dimensional on offense, which helped No. 7 Texas win 26-16 last week at Jack Trice Stadium.

ISU’s paltry 9-yard rushing output against the Longhorns was its lowest in a game since the 2010 season, but there could be a smidge more daylight available against a Wildcats defense that’s very good, but not great against the run. They rank third in the Big 12 in that regard, allowing 129.5 yards per game.

The Cyclones’ running game has been mercurial, to say the least, and ranks 12th in the Big 12 (118.3 yards per game).

2. Rise up in the red zone

Both teams have been elite offensively when driving inside the opponent’s 20-yard line.

Iowa State has scored points on every trip into the red zone during conference play, going 25-for-25, but settling for a field goal on 10 of those opportunities. Kansas State leads all FBS schools in red zone touchdown percentage, scoring six points in a staggering 81.5 percent of such situations.

The Cyclones’ main task, then, is to match the Wildcats in that area, which means they can’t allow good drives to bog down as the field shrinks. ISU’s already improved dramatically in red zone offense — and is tied for 10th nationally with top-ranked Georgia in terms of red zone scoring. The Cyclones ranked a lowly 128th in that key stat last season.

3. Hinder Howard

Kansas State’s all-time leader in touchdown passes with 47 has been on a tear lately.

Will Howard’s thrown 14 touchdown passes to just two interceptions in the past five weeks and that head-turning touchdown-to-interception ratio during that span ranks 11th-best nationally and leads the Big 12.

The 6-foot-5, 242-pound senior poses significant challenges to opposing defenses via his arm and his legs, as he’s accounted for 65 total touchdowns in his career (47 passing, 18 rushing).

The Cyclones’ defense, meanwhile, has complied mixed results against dual-threat quarterbacks this season and must find a way to disrupt Howard’s rhythm to have a chance to upset the Wildcats on what’s expected to be a very cold senior day.

Iowa State vs. Kansas State prediction

The Wildcats have yet to score a touchdown on either kick return or punt return this season, which is rare. Stellar special teams play is a hallmark of Kansas State’s program, but it hasn’t been required in 2023 as the Wildcats seek to get to nine wins on Saturday against the Cyclones.

Expect two very good defenses to dictate how this game will go and whichever team can hit on a few big plays offensively while not turning the ball over likely will win.

The Cyclones have been excellent in the latter category, but so has Kansas State — as both teams are tied for 11th nationally in turnover margin at plus-nine. Home field tips the scales here.

Kansas State 28, Iowa State 23