Iowa
Iowa men’s basketball: Four bold predictions for Hawkeyes’ 2024-25 season
Video: Fran McCaffery reacts to exhibition win over Minnesota Duluth
Fran McCaffery discusses a variety of topics after Iowa’s 102-81 exhibition win over Minnesota Duluth.
IOWA CITY — The Iowa men’s basketball regular season is on the verge of getting underway.
After beating Minnesota Duluth, 102-81, in an exhibition, the Hawkeyes’ next contest is more than just a dress rehearsal. That comes Monday with the regular season opener against Texas A&M-Commerce.
There are not exactly high expectations surrounding this Iowa team. The Hawkeyes were picked to finish 11th out of 18 teams in the Big Ten by a preseason media poll. Internally, though, there is optimism.
“People are confident,” Payton Sandfort said at Big Ten Media Days. “Anyone that has been around practice this year thinks this team is special. The energy is different. The intensity is different. The attention to detail is different. I think it’s going to be a great year.”
To skeptics, Sandfort’s claim could be viewed as a bold prediction.
In that spirit, here are some bold takes ahead of the Hawkeyes’ 2024-25 season.
Iowa basketball’s Josh Dix will make an All-Big Ten team
This wouldn’t be that bold of a prediction if the conference hadn’t just added four new programs. But now with 18 teams, earning a spot on the All-Big Ten first, second, or third teams (more than 15 players can make them in total) becomes even more difficult.
That said, Dix should be considered a dark horse.
The flashes that Dix showed as a freshman became even more prominent as a sophomore. Last season, there was a phenomenal three-game stretch during Big Ten play in which he averaged 21.3 points on 68.4% from the field and 61.5% from deep.
It’s unrealistic to expect Dix to sustain those numbers across an entire season, but it’s one of the many signs pointing to him being capable of becoming a premier player in the league. Dix, a highly efficient scorer on all three levels, also adds value on the defensive end. Now as a junior, Dix is stepping into an even larger role, meaning the opportunity is there for him to put up big numbers.
He scored 22 points against Minnesota Duluth on 9-of-12 from the field, including 2-of-4 from deep.
“I think the biggest thing he’s done, he’s gotten really aggressive,” Sandfort said of Dix after the contest. “He always had that. He was always showing it in practice but would be just kinda passive when we got into games… Now he has the confidence that he can dominate these teams. I’m excited to see the year he has.”
Video: Payton Sandfort leads Iowa with 23 points in exhibition win
Payton Sandfort discusses a variety of topics after Iowa’s exhibition win over Minnesota Duluth.
Hawkeyes’ Brock Harding will finish top-5 in the Big Ten in assists per game
Harding’s sensational passing ability, coupled with Iowa’s offensive firepower makes this seem like a real possibility.
His ability to share the rock was on display as a freshman. Harding’s 2.6 assists per game in limited playing time equates to 9.7 when extrapolated to a per 40-minute average.
It’s unreasonable to expect him to average 40 minutes per game as a sophomore, but he is primed to get substantially more playing time, meaning last season’s assist numbers are likely to go up. With Dix, Owen Freeman and Sandfort all having the potential to be high-volume scorers, Harding shouldn’t have a shortage of opportunities.
Even in a Minnesota Duluth exhibition that wasn’t his best performance — Harding scored two points on 1-of-7 from the field — he still recorded six assists.
Northwestern’s Boo Buie finished last season fifth in the Big Ten in assists per game with five. Getting in that neighborhood doesn’t seem like a long shot for Harding.
Pryce Sandfort will be Iowa men’s basketball’s top bench scorer
There are probably four realistic options to be Iowa’s leading bench scorer. It could be either of the transfers, Seydou Traore or Drew Thelwell. Freshman Cooper Koch deserves to be in the conversation, as well.
But Pryce Sandfort might be the one to earn that title.
After an inconsistent freshman season, word from inside the program has been pointedly positive about Pryce Sandfort. At Iowa men’s basketball media day, coach Fran McCaffery remarked that Pryce Sandfort was “shooting the ball at an incredibly high clip on a consistent basis.”
The exhibition against Minnesota Duluth showed how quickly Sandfort can score in bunches. He finished the first half without a point but scored 11 in the second half. He also played the most minutes out of Iowa’s reserves.
At 6-foot-7, Pryce Sandfort can be a lethal 3-point shooter, but his offensive repertoire isn’t limited to that. With Iowa needing some scoring outside of Payton Sandfort, Freeman and Dix, Pryce Sandfort has the skill set to deliver.
Iowa Hawkeyes will have its best 3-point percentage since the 2020-21 season
The Hawkeyes shot 38.6% as a team in 2020-21. Four players shot 39% or better from deep, including three that shot at least 44%.
Since then, Iowa’s team 3-point percentages are as follows:
- 2021-22: 36.3%
- 2022-23: 34%
- 2023-24: 35.1%
Iowa has a chance to shoot better in 2024-25 than it has in each of the last three seasons.
The Hawkeyes saw the departures of some lower percentage shooters, including Tony Perkins (29.9%) and Patrick McCaffery (31.2%).
Two of the players expected to be among the highest-volume shooters for Iowa this season are more than capable 3-point shooters in Dix and Payton Sandfort. Pryce Sandfort and Cooper Koch are known to be good shooters, as well.
There are a handful of other X-factors.
Harding shot 37.5% as a freshman even before adjusting his shooting form this offseason. Thelwell is a career 34.8% 3-point shooter. Freeman didn’t attempt many 3-pointers last season but has worked on expanding his game this offseason and could take more as a sophomore. Ladji Dembele and Traore can contribute from beyond the arc, though they haven’t proven to shoot a high percentage yet.
Follow Tyler Tachman on X @Tyler_T15, contact via email at ttachman@gannett.com