How predictable is the Iowa offense? Studying the Hawkeyes’ tendencies

IOWA CITY, Iowa — When an offense has issues, there’s a natural tendency to evaluate every aspect of play calling and, in most cases, overanalyze what is going wrong.

For Iowa (4-1, 1-1 Big Ten), which has struggled in most offensive facets the past two-plus seasons, every aspect is fair game, from personnel groupings to situational runs and passes. That’s especially true for a team ranked 130th in total offense, 113th in rushing and 128th in passing.

With the Hawkeyes approaching the midpoint this week against Purdue, let’s examine a few of their offensive tendencies, groupings and crutches as they move to new quarterback Deacon Hill.

Groupings: WRs vs. TEs

As “Tight End U,” Iowa’s offensive staff has leaned into that stereotype in how it stacks its formations. Through five games, the Hawkeyes have lined up with two-plus tight ends on 72.7 percent of their snaps. That number has dipped since Luke Lachey’s season-ending injury in Week 3, but only from 76 percent.

It’s not unusual for the Hawkeyes to use multiple tight ends as their primary grouping, but the numbers are extreme this year. Even with a depleted receiving corps in 2022, Iowa used two or more tight ends on just 61.7 percent of its offensive snaps. That includes current Detroit Lions tight end Sam LaPorta lining up as an X-receiver or Monte Pottebaum playing a hybrid fullback tight end.

What’s striking is in 2018, when the Hawkeyes had first-rounders T.J. Hockenson and Noah Fant, they used two tight ends on 61.8 percent of their snaps.

“In my mind, 12 can play a lot of ways,” offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz said about a one-back, two-tight-end set. “The question you have to ask with however you line up is why? Why are we doing this and are we getting our best players on the field? And, more importantly, are we targeting our best players with the football?”

This year, Iowa quarterbacks have targeted tight ends and wide receivers 53 times each. Running backs (15) and throwaways (four) comprise the rest. Last week against Michigan State was only the second game this season that receivers had at least double-digit targets. But those targets came with only 16 snaps of a three-receiver set.

“If it were me — me being a receivers guy — I’m gonna say, ‘Hey, we can be in 10 personnel,’” receivers coach Kelton Copeland said about a four-receiver package. “But we know that’s not how we operate here at Iowa. So it doesn’t matter what I think; it’s a matter of what’s going to help us be the most successful.”

In 2019, Iowa used 11 personnel (three receivers, one tight end, one back) on 51.3 percent of its offensive snaps, the only year that grouping was a sizable majority. But 11 personnel also had the most snaps in 2017, 2019, 2020 and 2021.

“If your best grouping — which for us in ’19 was 11 — then you’re playing 11,” Brian Ferentz said. “The difference between 11 and 12 is you can’t line up in 12 formations out of 11. If you have a receiver that can line up in a three-point stance and block guys, then you’re in 12. He’s a tight end. He’s Noah (Fant). It doesn’t swing both ways.”

Iowa does incorporate empty backfield formations, of which most teams use three or four receivers, but the Hawkeyes employ two receivers, two tight ends and a running back — lately true freshman Terrell Washington — out wide. So the formation has elements of 11 or 10 personnel but actually is 12.

“I have input on personnel,” Copeland said. “I think Nico (Ragaini, a receiver) can do this, or Erick (All, a tight end) may be able to do this better. So that in itself may dictate, OK, we need to be in 11 personnel versus 12 personnel or a variation of either one.”

Shotgun passing vs. running

Iowa has a balanced offense when it comes to plays under center (52 percent) against those in shotgun (48 percent), but it’s not at all balanced when it comes to running and passing out of those looks.

By percentage, it’s fascinating. Iowa is under center for 76 percent of its run plays and in shotgun for 76 percent of its pass plays. Based on personnel grouping, only one grouping lacks hardcore tendencies, however.

Iowa is under center every time it lines up in 22 personnel (two backs, two tight ends), 21 personnel (two backs, one tight end) or any formation with three or more tight ends. Every snap Iowa has taken with three receivers on the field has come in shotgun (73).

The only grouping that has used shotgun and under center is 12 personnel, with 53 percent of plays coming in shotgun.

Perhaps the most significant tell comes with 11 personnel. All 71 plays thus far have taken place in shotgun. They include 45 passes and 26 running attempts. However, 11 of those runs were quarterback runs, scrambles or sacks. That means that 79 percent of 11 personnel snaps are called pass plays. That’s not quite as predictable as in 2016, when 74 of Iowa’s final 75 third-down plays in 11 personnel were called passes under former offensive coordinator Greg Davis. But it’s not far off, either.

“A part of that is what you do best,” coach Kirk Ferentz said. “There’s certain things that you’re going to have tendencies of doing, like we tend to play a pretty similar front down in and down out. But you have to have some adjustments off of the tweaks, that type of thing.

“You don’t want to just be entirely predictable, so you need to have a counterpunch to whatever it is you’re doing and whatever you hang your hat on, if you will.”

First down to second down

A team’s most obvious offensive tendencies often come after unsuccessful plays on first down. In two specific areas, Iowa is too predictable.

The first is calling a running play on second down after a first-down incompletion. The ratio was in favor of run to pass, seven to five. On the surface, that’s a solid number. However, two of those passes took place in two-minute drills. So in traditional situations, around 70 percent of its second-down plays are runs after a first-down incompletion.

The other area — and worse statistically — is a called passing play on a first-down run of 3 yards or less. Of the 40 plays that fit that category, 29 were passes, 10 were runs and the other was in victory formation. However, four rushes were in late-game situations in which Iowa was attempting to run out the clock. So when removing those plays and the victory formation kneeldown, 83 percent of its offensive snaps following a short first-down run are passing plays.

“That’s always part of your consideration,” Kirk Ferentz said about tendencies. “But the other part is games can skew. Like, you take the Penn State game (a 31-0 loss). You’re playing situationally in the second half; it’s pretty predictable what you need to do if you’re going to get back in the game. So certain things you pull out, certain things you include. It’s not just pure numbers.”

Down and quarter

Finally, there’s execution based on down and quarter. When the Hawkeyes work off a script sheet in the first quarter or on first down, they produce quality results.

In the opening frame, Iowa quarterbacks have completed 17 of 28 passes (60.7 percent) for 183 yards and two touchdowns, with only one interception coming on a diving, one-handed effort. Likewise, the Hawkeyes have run for 208 yards on 33 attempts (6.3 yards per carry). From there, however, the offense falls apart.

In the second quarter, the Hawkeyes have completed just 11 of 30 passes (36.7 percent) for 91 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. The passing numbers on second down mirror the second-quarter numbers at 13-of-29 (44.8 percent) for 129 yards and one score.

As with most teams, the stats get worse on third down at 13-of-33 passing (35.4 percent) for 196 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. The third-quarter passing features an uptick from the second quarter in competition percentage (63.2), but the attempts (19) and yards (105) are on the low side.

Along with non-script passing, Iowa’s largest concerns come in the running game after halftime. In the third and fourth quarters, the Hawkeyes have totaled 164 yards on 67 carries (2.4 yards per carry). Iowa did rush for 36 yards in the fourth quarter against Michigan State, though, which was a positive development.

So what’s the issue?

“It’s a complex equation,” Kirk Ferentz said. “The offense is more complex other than just saying this, this, and this. The fourth quarter the other day, at least we looked like we were back kind of going the way we need to go.”

(Top photo of Brian Ferentz: Matthew Holst / Getty Images)