Thursday evening, the NCAA Event Choice Committee revealed its up to date High 16 groups if the NCAA Event had been chosen at present (however not together with at present’s outcomes). The primary reveal occurred on February 10 and noticed Iowa land as a 2 seed and #7 general.
Since that launch Iowa has misplaced at #2 Indiana (Iowa really misplaced earlier than the reveal, however the Committee didn’t have it factored in), demolished Rutgers and Wisconsin at house, gained by 20 at Nebraska, and misplaced by 28 at #7 Maryland.
Once you have a look at these outcomes with out additional context, it actually doesn’t seem like Iowa did a lot to enhance its resume. Nebraska is a bubble NCAA Event staff and that’s clearly Iowa’s greatest win within the final two weeks. The loss at Indiana in all probability didn’t harm a lot. A loss at Maryland actually shouldn’t have both, however the margin may’ve raised some eyebrows.
Earlier than the large Maryland loss, ESPN had Iowa at fifth general in its Bracketology, simply forward of LSU, Maryland, and Utah. Attributable to losses from LSU and Utah earlier than the Maryland recreation, ESPN a minimum of thought Iowa had gained floor on the sector even with out one other notable win. Was ESPN proper about that and the way a lot would the Maryland loss harm Iowa?
1 Seeds
1—South Carolina—SEC—no change
2—Indiana—Large Ten—no change
3—Stanford—PAC 12—no change
4—Utah—PAC 12—up 2
2 Seeds
5—LSU—SEC—no change
6—Maryland—Large Ten—up 3
7—UConn—Large Ten—down 3
8—Virginia Tech—ACC—up 5
3 Seeds
9—Iowa—Large Ten—down 2
10—Notre Dame—ACC—no change
11—Duke—ACC—down 3
12—Ohio State—Large Ten—up 4
4 Seeds
13—Texas—Large 12—down 1
14—Villanova—Large East—up 1
15—Arizona—Pac 12—beforehand unranked
16—Michigan—Large Ten—down 5
I used to be somewhat surprised to see Iowa all the best way down at a 3 seed. Sure the Maryland loss was unhealthy, however ESPN had Iowa at fifth general a pair days in the past. Even a foul loss on the #6 staff shouldn’t harm a staff an excessive amount of (a minimum of in principle).
I feel this reveal reveals that the Committee locations extra worth on current outcomes as in comparison with general resume. Final 12 months, nobody thought Iowa would get the final 2 seed heading into the choice present. However the Committee gave Iowa the nod over groups with arguably higher resumes particularly due to Iowa’s late season run.
That’s each good and unhealthy for Iowa. If the Hawks shut the season with a pair huge wins, they may dramatically enhance their place. In the event that they lose to Indiana then lose within the quarterfinal of the Large Ten Event, although, Iowa may fall additional extra on account of dropping three straight to finish the season than due to the hit that may give to Iowa’s general resume.
If Iowa loses to Indiana, wins the quarterfinal match recreation, then loses to Maryland once more within the semifinal, Iowa in all probability gained’t fall decrease than a 3 seed, barring unusual outcomes.
South Carolina and Indiana needs to be digital locks to be the #1 and #2 general groups within the NCAA Event come Choice Sunday. Indiana is properly forward of #3 Stanford, but in addition has a loss to Michigan State on its resume that may negate any potential South Carolina loss.
Iowa gained’t find yourself in Indiana’s bracket. Through the first reveal, Iowa (seventh general) and Indiana (2nd general) ought to’ve been in the identical bracket. The Committee made some extent to modify Iowa and Utah throughout its divulge to keep away from the 2 groups enjoying once more. Due to that, Iowa gained’t should face the Hoosiers once more earlier than the Ultimate 4.
Iowa also needs to hope to keep away from being in South Carolina’s bracket for a possible Elite Eight recreation. The Gamecocks and Hoosiers have separated themselves as the 2 high groups within the nation heading to March. One among them may falter, however it’s more likely that different groups do.
There are some unusual outcomes on this reveal. Within the first one, Ohio State was at sixteenth general. Since then, the Buckeyes had been blown out by Indiana, beat Penn State by 12, and beat #16 Michigan by 13. The Michigan win was huge clearly, however sufficiently big to maneuver Ohio State up 4 locations? That Michigan win is Ohio State’s solely actual optimistic consequence because it misplaced to Iowa a couple of weeks in the past. In any other case the Buckeyes have been in a tailspin.
Utah at #4 general appears virtually baffling. Utah was sixth within the first reveal; since then the Utes have crushed Washington (a bubble staff) and Washington State (a staff just like Purdue) at house, misplaced to #15 Arizona on the highway, and narrowly beat an Arizona State staff that’s 7-18 general and 0-16 in convention.
Utah’s placement at #4 general reveals two issues in my thoughts: 1) there is no such thing as a clear 4th greatest staff within the nation, and a couple of) the hole between Utah at 4 and Iowa at 9 isn’t very huge. If Iowa beats Indiana on Sunday, then wins the Large Ten Event, I feel there’s a excellent probability Iowa may nonetheless seize that 4th general spot.
