Go Iowa Awesome – WBB: Selection Committee First Top 16 Reveal

Late Thursday night time, the NCAA Event Choice Committee revealed its Prime 16 groups if the event choice had been to occur right now. Reveals like this are necessary in that they take a number of the hypothesis out of bracketology work; the highest groups not should guess the place they stand. Analysts can evaluate traits and decide what elements in a staff’s resume that this specific committee likes higher than others.

One word earlier than we dig in: Thursday’s outcomes — together with Iowa’s loss at Indiana — weren’t factored into the committee’s rankings. It is uncertain that end result would have modified a lot for Iowa anyway, however it’s nonetheless price noting that the reveal wasn’t up to date to account for that consequence.

Earlier than displaying the Choice Committee’s Prime 16, let’s use ESPN’s final bracketology (launched on Tuesday) as a baseline. Nobody bracketologist is ideal clearly, however ESPN’s Charlie Creme might be greatest at it on the ladies’s aspect. ESPN’s projection can function an affordable guess on the anticipated Prime 16 after which we are able to evaluate the place the Committee differed from ESPN.

Two notes on ESPN’s bracketology. First, it was launched earlier than UConn misplaced at Marquette on Wednesday night time. Thus the Choice Committee’s Prime 16 takes that loss under consideration, however ESPN’s final projection didn’t.

Second, Creme doesn’t launch the S-curve he makes use of in his projections. What’s listed under for the Prime 16 groups is considerably of a guess, although the highest 3 appear pretty apparent, and Creme defined how he ranked groups 4-6.

1 Seeds

1—South Carolina
2–Indiana
3—UConn
4—Stanford

2 Seeds

5—Iowa
6—LSU
7—Utah
8—Maryland

3 Seeds

9—Duke
10—Notre Dame
11—Ohio State
12—North Carolina

4 Seeds

13—Michigan
14—Virginia Tech
15—Florida State
16—Texas

1 Seeds

1—South Carolina (SEC)
2—Indiana (Large Ten)
3—Stanford (PAC 12)
4—UConn (Large East)

2 Seeds

5—LSU (SEC)

6—Utah (Pac 12)

7—Iowa (Large Ten)

8—Duke (ACC)

3 Seeds

9—Maryland (Large Ten)
10—Notre Dame (ACC)
11—Michigan (Large Ten)
12—Texas (Large 12)

4 Seeds

13—Virginia Tech (ACC)
14—North Carolina (ACC)
15—Villanova (Large East)
16—Ohio State (Large Ten)

The largest distinction for Iowa followers is that ESPN had Iowa fifth total and the Committee had Iowa seventh total. That stated, ESPN thought the hole between 4 by way of 7 was pretty small, and there’s likelihood the Committee feels the identical.

ESPN and the Committee’s Prime 10 groups had been all the identical. The one distinction of word of their prime 10s was the Committee had Duke on the 2-line (eighth total) with Maryland as a 3-seed (ninth total), whereas ESPN switched the 2 with one another.

Extra considerably, ESPN was a lot increased on Ohio State (eleventh) than the Committee (sixteenth). That’s dangerous information for Iowa, as a result of Iowa’s win in Columbus is likely one of the greatest on its resume. Hopefully Ohio State will decide issues up once more and enhance its standing.

The one staff the Committee had in its prime 16 that ESPN didn’t was Villanova (ESPN had FSU as a substitute).

South Carolina seems like simply the most effective staff within the nation, and is the one staff that will be good for Iowa to keep away from within the event for so long as attainable. So long as Iowa stays at 7 total or increased, the Hawkeyes ought to handle that.

At seventh total, Iowa would have been in Indiana’s mock bracket, however the Committee flipped Utah and Iowa to keep away from the Indiana-Iowa rematch potential. As enjoyable because the Iowa-Indiana video games are, we gained’t see one within the NCAA Event until each groups make the Closing 4 or Nationwide Championship.

A completely wholesome UConn squad might be the second-best staff within the nation, however UConn hasn’t been wholesome all season. We’ll see if the Huskies can get more healthy earlier than the season ends. If they will’t, they’re as susceptible as any of the highest groups.

I’m undecided whether or not the Committee would keep away from pairing Iowa and UConn for a possible rematch within the Elite Eight. Final 12 months the Committee arrange a possible Iowa-Iowa State rematch within the Candy Sixteen, however that was additionally a rivalry match that will have been simple to promote. Iowa-UConn is a big-time matchup, however doesn’t have the identical rivalry hype. And with Paige Bueckers damage, there’s no Clark vs. Bueckers matchup to market.

Stanford has a loaded frontcourt that will be tough for Iowa to cease, however its star submit—Cameron Brink—usually finds herself in foul bother, and the Cardinal are comparatively weak at guard. Stanford wouldn’t be a horrible matchup for Iowa in a possible Elite Eight recreation.

Utah is a little more mysterious, however from glancing at their stats and metrics, they appear an terrible lot like Iowa—an offense-first staff that performs rapidly and will get into shootouts. Iowa tends to do comparatively higher in opposition to offensive groups than defensive groups, so that will probably be a enjoyable matchup within the NCAA Event if it involves move.

As I discussed in my recap earlier, LSU hasn’t performed a ranked staff all season. Due to that, they’re the largest query mark in faculty basketball proper now. They’ve blown out some good groups, however have additionally appeared notably shaky within the final two weeks. LSU’s Angel Reese would most likely put up monster numbers in opposition to Iowa, however it’s attainable that the Tigers’ true expertise degree is considerably decrease than their present seeding as a result of their resume is being propped up by the undefeated file. It could not be an enormous shock if the Tigers drop fairly a bit within the Committee’s eyes if they’ve an enormous loss to South Carolina (Sunday, February 12, 1 PM CT, ESPN).

Additional down, ACC and Large Ten groups occupy 8 of the ten slots between #7 and #16. Iowa gained’t be matched with any of the Large Ten groups in that vary for a possible Candy Sixteen recreation, so the Hawks would match up in opposition to Texas, Villanova or one of many ACC groups if issues don’t change considerably between now and Choice Sunday.