Go Iowa Awesome – PREVIEW: Iowa vs Western Michigan

WHO: Western Michigan Broncos (1-1)
WHEN: 2:40 PM CT (Saturday, September 16, 2023)
WHERE: Kinnick Stadium (Iowa City, IA)
TV: BTN
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Ed Podolak, Rob Brooks) | Sirius/XM 83
MOBILE: foxsports.com/mobile
ONLINE: foxsports.com/live
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @HawkeyeFootball | @IowaonBTN
WEATHER: mostly cloudy, highs in the 70s, potential for thunderstorms in the afternoon
LINE: Iowa -28.5
SP+: Iowa -31

NOTE: This game is Iowa’s annual “gold out” game, so be sure to wear gold Iowa gear on Saturday.

Western Michigan is 1-1 on the season so far, opening the year with a 35-7 win over St. Francis (PA), an FCS program, before losing 48-7 to Syracuse last week. That game was even less competitive than the 48-7 final score would suggest, too. While the Broncos scored the opening touchdown of that game — a 75-yard run by RB Jalen Buckley on the second play of the game — they trailed 17-7 after the first quarter and 45-7 at halftime after giving up 28 points in the second quarter. The Orange rolled up almost 500 yards of offense (496) and 26 first downs in their blowout victory.

There’s been a little consternation about this game, in part because of Iowa’s history against Western Michigan and in part because of concerns about Iowa’s offense and the Hawkeyes’ propensity for playing games closer than necessary. And it’s true, Western Michigan is the only MAC team with a winning record against Iowa (2-1). In fact, half of Iowa’s losses against MAC teams have come against the Broncos.

That said, there are some notable differences between this Iowa team and the Iowa teams that lost to WMU in the past. The 2000 loss came in the second game of the season and very early in Kirk Ferentz‘s Iowa tenure, when the Hawkeyes were still figuring things out. That also ended up being a pretty good WMU team — they went 9-3 and dropped a close game to Marshall in the MAC Championship Game.

The 2007 loss came in Iowa’s season finale and after the Hawkeyes had won three in a row and four of five games. That was a very middling Iowa squad, though, and when they were not locked in, they were pretty lousy that season. They were certainly not locked in that game and WMU was able to beat a very flat Iowa team.

The last Iowa-WMU game may bear the greatest resemblance to this year’s game, though. The Broncos came in at 0-3 in then-head coach P.J. Fleck‘s first season. Iowa came in at 3-0 after a close win over Iowa State in Ames (the first of the Hawkeyes’ current six-game winning streak in Ames, in fact). That was a solid-not-great Iowa team and a pretty bad Western Michigan team… and the Hawkeyes drilled them, 59-3.

Time will tell on the quality of this year’s Iowa and Western Michigan teams, but the early returns suggest that Iowa has a good team with the potential for bigger things if the offense can find more consistency — and that Western Michigan is not very good. Like they were in 2013, the Broncos are breaking in a new head coach (Lance Taylor), and, like they were in 2013, the Broncos seem to be struggling in multiple phases of the game.

WMU ranks 111th in scoring defense, allowing 32.5 ppg. They rank 97th in total defense, allowing an average of 388.5 yards per game. They rank 116th in yards per play allowed (6.4). They’re not any better under advanced stats, either — SP+ ranks the Broncos 120th overall, 113th on offense, 114th on defense, and 115th on special teams. If this is a really good Iowa team — and several of the pieces are in place to suggest that they might be — then they should take care of business in this game.

Western Michigan is 112th in the country in scoring offense, averaging 21.0 ppg. In their only other game against an FBS opponent (Syracuse last week), the Broncos managed just seven points. The Broncos finished that game with 318 yards of offense and they ran only a handful of plays on the Syracuse side of the field — with most coming late in the fourth quarter, when the Orange already had a 48-7 lead.

The Broncos did take a brief 7-0 lead early in the game, courtesy of their best offensive weapon — RB Jalen Buckley, who broke off a 75-yard touchdown run. Buckley also had a 68-yard run in WMU’s season opener against St. Francis (PA). He’s clearly got some pop and some legitimate big play ability.

That said, those two runs also account for over half of his 281 rushing yards on the season; he’s averaging 3.8 yards per carry on his other 36 rushes this season. Outside of the 75-yard run, Buckley had 12 yards on his other seven carries against the Orange.

The Broncos’ starting quarterback is sophomore Jack Salopek (6’3″, 186), who’s 33/48 (68.8%) for 280 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. He was 15/22 for 110 yards and interception against Syracuse last week.

Three WMU players have caught 8 or more passes this season, led by sophomore WR Kenneth Womack (5’11”, 180), who has 8 receptions for 121 yards. Senior TE Austin Hence (6’4″, 241) has 9 receptions for 68 yards (8 catches and 59 yards came against Syracuse) and WMU’s lone receiving touchdown. Senior WR Jehlani Galloway (5’11”, 185) also has 10 receptions for 55 yards this season.

Don’t miss out on any of our exclusive football, basketball, and recruiting coverage. Sign up with Go Iowa Awesome here.

The defensive stats for WMU have been grim so far this season, as noted above — 97th in total defense, 116th in yards per play allowed, and 111th in scoring defense. Syracuse largely did whatever they wanted on offense against WMU last week, exploding for 45 points in the first half (including 28 in the second quarter, with the final score coming on a pick-six as time expired in the half).

Syracuse finished with 496 yards of offense and averaged 6.5 yards per play. The Orange punted four times in the game, all in the second half after opening up a 45-7 lead. WMU has shown a particular vulnerability to big pass plays — St. Francis (PA) hit them for a 77-yard touchdown pass in Week 1, and Syracuse had an 86-yard touchdown reception in Week 2. Syracuse threw for 343 yards overall and the Orange receivers made a few other splash plays as well.

Senior safety Tate Hallock (6’4″, 210) leads the team in tackles this season with 17 so far. Sophomore CB Aaron Wofford (5’11”, 170) also has 12 tackles this season. The Broncos have zero interceptions on the season, but have forced six pass break-ups, led by senior CB Keni-H Lovely‘s (5’10”, 176) two so far. Lovely also leads the team in tackles for loss (2.0), while junior LB Boone Bonnema (6’3″, 235) leads the team with 1.5 sacks.

WMU has had some success slowing the run this year — the Broncos rank a respectable 43rd nationally in run defense, allowing 102 yards per game. Their average of 3.5 yards allowed per rush ranks 59th. Syracuse didn’t have huge success against the Broncos on the ground last week — the Orange had 153 yards on 37 credited carries, 4.1 yards per rush.

Given the softness of the Bronco pass defense — 113th nationally at 286.5 yards allowed per game and 120th in yards per attempt (9.1) — it’s clear that teams haven’t had to push too hard to establish the run in order to beat WMU. Opponents have had plenty of success just passing over, around, and through the Bronco secondary.

WMU doesn’t appear to possess any notable special teams advantages against Iowa, either. The Broncos have zero punt return yards on the season and kick returner Keshawn King (5’11”, 185) is averaging 19.5. yards per kick return so far. Placekicker Palmer Domschke has not attempted a field goal this season, although he is 6/6 on extra point tries. The Broncos also have their own Aussie import at punter, sophomore Cameron Peasley; he’s averaging 42 yards per punt through five attempts so far this season.

You never know how a team will perform when the opening kickoff hits, but this doesn’t appear to be an Iowa team that’s likely to try and sleepwalk through this game. During the media availability earlier this week, Iowa came across as a team in good spirits — but also a team focused on stacking wins and continuing to make improvements. Especially on offense, this feels like a team that’s eager to make a bit of a statement and show what it’s capable of doing this season.

One caveat: poor weather conditions could impact this game tomorrow afternoon. Severe thunderstorms are in the forecast for the Iowa City area in the afternoon, which could make the ball (and players’ footing) more slippery than expected. If it results in lightning strikes near Kinnick Stadium, it could also result in delays to the game

Assuming that the weather doesn’t play too much of a factor in tomorrow’s game, this feels like a game where Iowa could dominate. While WMU has a big play threat at RB, Iowa’s defense has long specialized in preventing big plays and keeping opposing running games under wraps.

This is a game where Iowa could score in all three phases; I won’t go that far, but I do think the defense or special teams will record a touchdown in this game. On offense, Cade McNamara should have his best day throwing the ball this season — and he’ll be able to connect with the receivers for a few big plays (25+ yards). I think the running backs combine for at least 150 yards on the ground and that this will be a game that Iowa fans won’t need to sweat in the fourth quarter. .

Iowa 37, Western Michigan 3