Go Iowa Awesome – Preview: Iowa MBB vs No. 8 Creighton

WHO: #8 Creighton Bluejays (2-0)
WHEN: 9:00 PM CT (Tuesday, November 14, 2023)
WHERE: CHI Health Center (Omaha, NE)
TV: FS1 (Kevin Kugler, Nick Bahe)
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Bob Hansen)
MOBILE: foxsports.com/live
ONLINE: foxsports.com/mobile
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @IowaHoops | @IowaonBTN
LINE: Creighton -11.5
KENPOM SPREAD: Creighton -9 (Creighton 84, Iowa 75)

Now the training wheels come off. Iowa basketball eased into the 2023-24 season with a pair of lopsided home wins over overmatched opponents, 110-68 over North Dakota and 98-67 over Alabama State. Tonight the Hawkeyes take a break from the cupcake portion of the schedule to take on their most formidable non-conference opponent: the 8th-ranked Creighton Bluejays.

The Bluejays went 24-13 last season, which included a 14-5 finish to the regular season after a 6-6 start. But Creighton really found its footing in the NCAA Tournament, advancing to the Elite 8 before suffering a narrow 57-56 loss on the cusp of the program’s first-ever Final Four appearance. That strong finish to the season — plus the return of several key players from that team — has Creighton positioned within the Top 10 to start this season.

Big things are expected of Creighton this year, so seeing how a young and rebuilding Iowa team fares against a veteran-laden Big East title contender should give us a much better sense of where Iowa stands this season — or at least where they stand in mid-November.

G Steven Ashworth (6’1″, 170, 12.0 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 4.0 apg, 54.3% FG, 60% 3FG)
G Trey Alexander (6’4″, 190, 20.5 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 4.5 apg, 3.0 spg, 71% FG, 33% 3FG)
F Baylor Scheierman (6’7″, 205, 16.0 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 4.0 apg, 55% FG, 46.2% 3FG)
F Mason Miller (6’9″, 190, 8.0 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 0.5 apg, 50% FG, 50% 3FG)
C Ryan Kalkbrenner (7’1″, 270, 11.0 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 2.0 apg, 1.5 bpg, 77% FG, 33% 3FG)

Creighton looks especially formidable because they return three starters from last season, including their top three scorers and top two rebounders from 2022-23. The 7’1″ Kalkbrenner was a dominant force in the post last season, averaging 15.9 ppg, 6.1 rpg, and 2.1 bpg while shooting 69.5% from the floor and 31.6% from 3-point range. Kalkbrenner has had a quiet start to the season so far, but his size and skill will be a difficult match-up for this Iowa team.

Trey Alexander was the Robin to Kalkbrenner’s Batman at times last season, averaging 13.6 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 2.6 apg, 1.1 spg while shooting 44.7% from the floor and 41% from 3-point range. He’s taken on more of a starring role this season, scoring over 20 points in each of Creighton’s first two games this season and ranking 9th in KenPom’s Player of the Year race so far. He’s likely to draw’s Iowa best perimeter defenders, but slowing him down may be easier said than done.

The third big returnee for Creighton is forward Baylor Scheierman, who averaged 12.8 ppg while leading the team in rebounding (8.3 rpg) and ranking second on the team in assists (3.3 apg). Scheierman also shot 42% from the field and was the Bluejays’ most prolific three-point shooter, draining 87 triples on 36% shooting from beyond the arc. His length and ability to play inside and out will make him a very challenging figure to defend.

Steven Ashworth has stepped in to replace departed guard Ryan Nembhard in the backcourt and he’s done an impressive job so far, averaging 12.0 ppg on 54% shooting, including 60% (6/10) from deep. He gives Creighton another weapon around the perimeter to further stress defenses.

This game will feature a major clash of styles in terms of preferred pace; Iowa ranks 11th nationally in tempo (75.7 possessions per game), while Creighton is among the slower teams in the nation, ranking 290th in tempo (68.5 possessions per game).

The Bluejays have been able to average 97 ppg at that slower tempo by having a hyper-efficient offense. Creighton ranks 6th nationally in offensive efficiency and their primary strength has been incredibly accurate shooting — the Bluejays rank 2nd nationally in eFG% (71.1%), lead the nation in 2-point field goal percentage (74.5%), and rank 12th in 3-point field goal percentage (45.5%). Turns out it’s very easy to win basketball games when you simply don’t miss shots.

Creighton has also been strong at recovering their (rare) misses on the offensive glass; they’re 17th nationally in offensive rebounding rate (43.6%). So essentially the Creighton offense: a) doesn’t miss shots, inside or outside, and b) gets second-chance opportunities off offensive rebounds when they occasionally do miss. Iowa’s ability to disrupt that formula — forcing more missed shots and keeping Creighton off the offensive glass — will be key to any potential upset bid in this game.

The Bluejays aren’t just an all-offense team, though — they also rank 19th in defensive efficiency. The defensive side of the ball is where Creighton’s slower tempo really comes into play — the Bluejays have been excellent at dragging opponents into a slow, sludgy muck. Opponent possessions have been averaging 19.5 seconds this season, one of the slowest rates in the nation.

Those opponent possessions have tended to end in missed shots and defensive rebounds for the Bluejays. Creighton is holding opponents to a 41.5% effective field goal percentage (43rd nationally) and allowing foes to recover only 15.6% of their offensive rebound opportunities (12th nationally). Opponents are making just 33.3% of their 3-point attempts Creighton (192nd) and a dismal 39.8% of their 2-point attempts (28th). Creighton also hasn’t allowed opponents to do much damage at the free throw line — opponents have been getting to the foul line on just 10.5% of their possessions against Creighton.

The one thing the Creighton defense doesn’t do is force turnovers — the Bluejays rank 334th nationally in turnover creation on defense (12.0% of opponent possessions). Creighton ranks just 301st in steal rate (6.7%) and 311th in non-steal turnover rate (5.2%).

The first two games were a chance for Iowa’s very young roster to get adjusted to the speed and intensity of college basketball. This game is a chance for those same young guys to get their first taste of a hostile road environment and to see how they measure up against a Top-10 opponent.

On Monday, Fran said that he anticipated the young guys — Brock Harding, Ladji Dembele, Owen Freeman, and Pryce Sandfort — all being a part of Iowa’s rotation in this game and playing them “a lot,” despite the challenging opponent and difficult environment. They’re going to make mistakes, but seeing how they respond to those mistakes and adjust to the intensity and competition tonight will be one of the most interesting things to watch.

Iowa’s ability to win this game seems to rely on its ability to get into transition and get easy buckets before Creighton can get its defense set. In a half-court game, many of Creighton’s advantages — and Iowa’s disadvantages — are maximized. But win or lose, this game should be an invaluable measuring stick for this new-look Iowa roster and provide a much clearer sense of just how good this Hawkeye team is at present.

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