WHEN: Sunday, March twelfth at 5 PM CT
TV: CBS
It wasn’t fairly the end to the common season that the Hawkeyes or their followers wished, however for the fifth-straight season, Iowa is projected to make the NCAA Match. Iowa, sitting at 19-13 (11-9) after its first-game exit from what has became a chaotic Huge Ten Match, is extensively considered a candidate for the 8/9 recreation within the first spherical.
Iowa’s schedule may be damaged neatly into two halves: 16 video games in opposition to groups projected to make the NCAA event, 16 video games in opposition to groups anticipated to overlook it.
Improbably, Iowa has a higher report in these 16 video games in opposition to tourney foes — 10-6 — than in opposition to its also-rans, the place the Hawkeyes completed simply 9-7, anchored by the loss to Japanese Illinois (a recreation Iowa led 18-4!). The opposite six losses all got here by the hands of Wisconsin, Ohio State and Nebraska: three of the 4 worst groups within the Huge Ten.
Solely a kind of 16 video games in opposition to tourney foes can be categorized as a “cupcake”; Iowa simply dispatched Southeast Missouri State, 106-75, months earlier than the Redhawks overcame a pedestrian 10-8 report in OVC play to run the desk within the convention tourney and earn an computerized bid.
This dichotomy poses a particular problem to the NCAA committee, who should stability resume property like sweeping Rutgers, drubbing Iowa State, and the surprising blowout win at Indiana in opposition to the sample of taking part in all the way down to the remainder of the Huge Ten’s stage of competitors.
Finally, that inconsistency seems to be like a ticket to the center of the tourney bracket — a spot with a life expectancy of 0-48 hours.
Throughout the spectrum of reputed bracketologists — and ill-reputed bracketeers — Iowa is a near-universal candidate for the 8/9 recreation.
Bracket Matrix Composite (Mar. 11): 8-seed, avg. seed of 8.58
Lunardi (ESPN) (Mar. 11): 8-seed vs. Auburn (Des Moines, reverse Kansas-Grambling St.)
DeCourcy (TSN/FOX/BTN) (Mar. 11): 8-seed vs. Florida Atlantic (no web site projected, reverse UCLA-Texas A&M-CC)
Stevens (Washington Submit) (Mar. 11): 9-seed vs. Memphis (Birmingham, reverse Alabama-SEMO/TAMU-CC)
Dobbertean (SBN) (Mar. 11): 8-seed vs. Arkansas (Birmingham, reverse Houston-Grambling St.)
Palm (CBS) (Mar. 11): 8-seed vs. Auburn (Birmingham, reverse Houston-Northern Kentucky)
Bennett (Athletic) (Mar. 11): 9-seed vs. Arkansas (Birmingham, reverse Houston-TAMU-CC)
The overall consensus on Birmingham as a web site is smart. Alabama, Houston and Kansas are basically locks as 1-seeds on this 12 months’s tourney, and barring an upset in opposition to Penn State, Purdue ought to take the Huge Ten and stave off UCLA for the final prime seed; the Bruins’ loss to Arizona within the Pac-12 tourney last late Saturday evening all however closed their door to the penthouse.
It will be unusual to ship Bama and Houston wherever however Birmingham. Kansas is likewise slated for Des Moines. There’s Purdue in Columbus too, however the committee will gladly keep away from sending Iowa there and engineering that pairing of Huge Ten foes (in a third, unrelated Huge Ten metropolis) except direly needed.
Iowa’s most fascinating vacation spot is clearly the KU setup in Des Moines. However as enjoyable as it will be: the committee’s below zero obligation to stack the deck in opposition to KU with a semi-hostile internet hosting surroundings, so we’ll imagine it after we see it.
Finally, even in opposition to a bevy of proficient 8/9 foes — each projected first-round opponent listed above is within the prime 30 of KenPom’s rankings — the “reward” for making it previous any of them is a 1-seed.
With Tenth-seeded Penn State’s upset of 3-seed Indiana on Saturday, the two, 3, 4 and 5 seeds within the Huge Ten Match completed with precisely one win in tourney play; that is the identical quantity that last-place Minnesota gained.
Plently of griping exists in regards to the NCAA Match choice committee undervaluing event outcomes — and Huge Ten Match leads to explicit, as Iowa could not transfer off the 5-line final season even after a 4-day, 4-game BTT championship run.
In fact, Penn State is relying on that sizable bump from the convention tourney, coming into the weekend firmly on the bubble and now anticipating to be secure from the play-in spherical. A victory over Purdue would make the argument educational, sealing an computerized bid for the Nittany Lions, however consecutive neutral-site wins over Illinois, Northwestern and Indiana ought to jar PSU’s standing up significantly.
However these three monster wins may transfer Penn State all the way in which from the 11 line to… 9. And perhaps not even that.
So for the angst that Iowa’s loss to OSU on Friday might have brought about for Iowa followers, finally it is unlikely to trigger a lot of a ripple when the Hawkeye resume has 31 knowledge factors that have been already into consideration. It is a missed alternative, completely, but it surely’s not a trigger for alarm.
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