After one week of football, ESPN’s matchup predictor has a full slate of data to add to its projections.
Using its Football Power Index, ESPN aims to create the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.
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The FPI offers projections on a team’s projected win-loss total and its win out percentage. It also shares percentages on a team’s chance to reach six wins, win its conference, advance to the College Football Playoff, reach the national championship game and to win the national championship game.
In its first 2023 FPI rankings in April, the Iowa Hawkeyes checked in at No. 37 nationally and were being given a 20.1% chance to win the Big Ten West. Then, in the FPI’s July update, the Hawkeyes were projected to finish 9-3 overall.
Now that the opening week is behind us, it’s time to turn our attention to the annual Iowa Corn Cy-Hawk Series. What does ESPN’s FPI think about the Hawkeyes following Week 1 and how is it projecting the rivalry date at Iowa State?
Iowa’s post-Week 1 profile
Zach Boyden-Holmes/The Register / USA TODAY NETWORK
ESPN FPI: 5.5
National ranking: No. 44
Change in ranking: Down six spots
Projected win-loss total: 7.0 wins-5.1 losses
Six wins %: 79.3%
Win division %: 16.7%
Win Big Ten %: 1.8%
Iowa State’s post-Week 1 profile
Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK
ESPN FPI: 6.3
National ranking: No. 41
Change in ranking: No change
Projected win-loss total: 7.3 wins-4.8 losses
Six wins %: 70.3%
Win Big 12 %: 1.0%
ESPN’s matchup predictor
Bryon Houlgrave/The Register / USA TODAY NETWORK
Projected Winner: Iowa State
Cyclones’ Win Probability: 57.4%
Hawkeyes’ Win Probability: 42.6%
Change since July: -4.8%
Analysis
Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports
ESPN’s matchup predictor was already favoring Iowa State before the season started, but the Week 1 results skewed things slightly more in the Cyclones’ direction.
Even after some pronounced grumbling from Hawkeye fans about Iowa’s offense failing to build upon its initial two drives versus Utah State, there were signs early about what Iowa’s offense could look like with new starting quarterback Cade McNamara and his array of weapons. If they can figure the running game out, then it looks like the Hawkeyes have made legitimate strides in pass protection and in the pass game in general.
If not for several untimely drops by Hawkeye receivers, would the FPI metrics actually favor Iowa in this contest? At any rate, the model likes the Cyclones to hold serve at home.
Iowa State enters after toppling Northern Iowa 30-9 in its opener. Rocco Becht passed for just 113 yards and the Cyclones finished with just 250 yards of total offense. So, the ‘Clones have their own offensive issues.
In fact, Northern Iowa actually finished with more first downs, more total yards and more passing yards than Iowa State in the Cyclones’ season opener.
Projected mark the rest of the way
(Photo by Matthew Holst/Getty Images)
Beyond Iowa State, here’s the win probabilities ESPN’s FPI is currently giving the Hawkeyes the rest of the way versus its schedule after Week 1:
- versus Western Michigan: 88.7%
- at Penn State: 13.5%
- versus Michigan State: 48.9%
- versus Purdue: 69.5%
- at Wisconsin: 30.2%
- versus Minnesota: 51.5%
- versus Northwestern: 73.9%
- versus Rutgers: 71.9%
- versus Illinois: 57.9%
- at Nebraska: 51.5%
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