Election 2024: How Iowa’s abortion law could affect state legislature races

DES MOINES, Iowa (Gray Television Iowa Capitol Bureau) – With Iowa’s abortion law now in effect, it could become an issue that drives voter turnout in November.

The law bans abortion once cardiac activity is detected, which is usually around six weeks of pregnancy. Doctors say that’s before most patients know they’re pregnant. The law does have limited exceptions for rape, incest, fetal abnormality, and when the life of the mother is in danger.

Abortion itself won’t be on the ballot in November because Iowa doesn’t allow citizen-led ballot initiatives. Any changes would have to come from the legislature.

Democrats are already making this election about abortion.

At the Iowa Democratic Party’s Liberty & Justice Celebration Saturday, House Minority Leader Jennifer Konfrst said, “Iowans are fed up. They’re furious about this abortion ban, and we’re going to make ‘em pay. That’s exactly what we’re going to do.”

Konfrst says they’re starting an awareness campaign to tell voters that the law is in effect and which Republicans voted for it. “We’ve had times when we’ve been saved by the courts before. That didn’t happen this time. Iowans need to know and Iowans need to know if they feel helpless, if they feel like they want to do something about this, their best opportunity to do so is at the ballot box in 99 days,” Konfrst said.

Iowa State University Political Science Professor Dave Peterson says framing elections around abortion rights generally helps Democrats. “The record post-Dobbs has been that when an election gets framed to be about abortion – either abortion is specifically on the ballot or that’s what the candidates have chosen to focus on and what voters are thinking about. That’s good for Democrats,” Peterson said.

Though, Peterson says Iowa Democrats will have a harder time since abortion itself isn’t on the ballot.

In a social media post Monday, presumptive Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris blamed Iowa’s law on former President Donald Trump. “What we need to do is vote ‘cause I’m going to tell you something, when I’m President of the United States, I will sign in to law the protections for reproductive freedom,” Harris said.

Peterson says Harris making abortion a central part of her campaign will keep the issue top of mind for voters, which can trickle down to state legislature races. ”So by Harris campaigning on abortion, again, when people are going in to the voting booth, that’s likely to be, or more likely to be one of the preeminent issues they’re thinking about. Again, we are several, or 100 days or so out, and so lots of things can change,” Peterson said.

Peterson says Republicans don’t perform as well when elections are framed around abortion and likely won’t talk about it much. He says their best strategy is to talk about immigration, inflation or “basically anything else.”

We reached out to Republican lawmakers for interviews to see how they’re planning to talk about abortion on their campaigns.

In a statement, Iowa House Speaker Pat Grassley says Republicans will build on work they’ve done to expand access to affordable childcare, expanding postpartum Medicaid coverage, and improving the foster care and adoption system.

“The Legislature is elected by the people, and for too long, the courts have stood in the way of Iowans having their voices heard on this matter. We are a pro-life and pro-family state. In Iowa, we respect both the life of the unborn child and the life of the mother. While the out-of-touch Iowa Democrats fight for abortion up until the day of birth, we will continue to fight for common sense policies that promote and protect life. We will continue to promote strong families in all that we do in the Iowa House. We must build on the work we’ve already done to expand access to affordable child care, extend postpartum coverage on Medicaid, and improve our foster care and adoption systems,” Grassley said.

Iowa Senate President Amy Sinclair said many Iowans have waited for this day to come.

“The Iowa Senate, House of Representatives, and Governor Reynolds have consistently supported the protection of life at the sound of a heartbeat. This commonsense law recognizes important exceptions for rape, incest, and the life of the mother. Today, the support for protection of life becomes a reality. Lives will be saved starting today. Many Iowans have voted, volunteered, and prayed to see this day finally happen,” Sinclair said.

A constitutional amendment protecting abortion rights could be placed on the ballot at some point in the future. A constitutional amendment would have to pass two General Assemblies first. This is unlikely to happen in the near future given the Republican supermajorities in both chambers.

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Conner Hendricks covers state government and politics for Gray Television-owned stations in Iowa. Email him at conner.hendricks@gray.tv; and follow him on Facebook at Conner Hendricks TV or on X/Twitter @ConnerReports.

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