Does Saturday’s showdown with Iowa State mark BYU’s best and last opportunity to get bowl eligible?

The intangibles seem to favor BYU in Saturday night’s frosty showdown with Iowa State.

Everything else, the really important things such as offense, defense, special teams and talent, favor the Cyclones.

Predicting how this matchup of a mid-level Big 12 team playing at the home of a lower-level Big 12 team, a newcomer to the league, will go doesn’t appear to be that difficult. On paper, the numbers say Iowa State (4-2, 5-4) should roll to an easy win over reeling BYU (2-4, 5-4) at 8:15 p.m. at LaVell Edwards Stadium.

That’s why the Cyclones are eight-point favorites; if this game was being played in Ames, ISU would be a double-digit favorite over a team that has been outscored 72-13 in its last two outings and scored just one touchdown in its last 10 quarters.

Call it the bowl game to go to a bowl game. The victor gets to six wins and bowl eligible. The loser most likely stays home for the holidays, seeing as how up next for BYU is No. 17 Oklahoma (7-2) in Provo and No. 15 Oklahoma State (7-2) in Stillwater.

Iowa State hosts No. 7 Texas (8-1) next week, then finishes out at Kansas State, which almost knocked off the Longhorns in Austin last week and is receiving votes in one poll and is ranked No. 25 in another.

“It is huge. It is the biggest game of the year for us, because it is the game this week. And it is a chance to get bowl eligible, which is obviously a team goal that we have. So it is absolutely huge,” said BYU center Connor Pay.

You get the picture. 

The Cyclones, who lost 28-21 to No. 21 Kansas last week in Ames in their first opportunity to get bowl eligible, had won three straight before that and are clearly playing better football than the Cougars. Coach Matt Campbell’s program has seemingly recovered nicely from a sports betting scandal that cost them starting QB Hunter Dekkers and running back Jirehl Brock.

“There is a ton of urgency,” said BYU linebacker AJ Vongphachanh. “To get that sixth win is huge, especially coming back home against a good opponent. We are super eager to get that (win) and build off that.”

Injuries have riddled the Cougars on both sides of the ball, but BYU head coach Kalani Sitake said the Cougars won’t use excuses and will have to rely on other strengths — such as ballhawking ability, a boisterous home crowd, and the penchant for rising to the occasion when all seems lost — to get them through, utilizing the so-called intangibles that have helped BYU down Power Five schools Arkansas, Cincinnati and Texas Tech.

This will be Sitake’s 100th game as BYU’s head coach.

“We are one win away (from bowl eligibility),” he said. “I wanted to do it last week. I wanted to do it (the week before). I want us to be at our best every week. I am not really worried about the record, except for we are so close now that it can provide us more time to get together (in pre-bowl practices). But you just don’t talk about it. You gotta go out and get it.”

Receiver Keelan Marion, who has taken on a bigger role the past few weeks because starters Darius Lassiter, Keanu Hill and Kody Epps have been out, said the recent blowout losses haven’t dampened spirits, or nicked their collective confidence.

“Just one more step and we are there for a bowl game,” he said. “We are always aiming to win every game, not just aiming to get to a bowl game. We want to win out.”

Defensively, BYU will be without starting defensive tackles John Nelson and Caden Haws and rush end John Henry Daley. Defensive coordinator Jay Hill said Tuesday that safety Talan Alfrey might finally be available.

That deficiency up the middle doesn’t bode well for the Cougars considering that Iowa State has a solid rushing attack. The Cyclones aren’t as proficient on the ground as West Virginia, which put up 336 rushing yards vs. BYU last week, but they aren’t too far behind the Mountaineers.

“We are excited for another opportunity to go play and for another challenge to show what we can do on defense,” BYU defensive end Tyler Batty said. “We have had some highs and lows, so defensively we just gotta be excited to go out and prove that we can shut down the run game.”

Linebacker Max Tooley said the Cougars have changed some things in practice this week in an effort to improve their physicality and tackling. Whether it works remains to be seen.

“This hasn’t been the way we wanted our season to go,” Tooley said. “Anytime you can extend that season, to play that extra game, that is a big bonding moment as a whole for the team. … So in that aspect, yeah, it is something you want to work for.”

Offensively, BYU will start Jake Retzlaff at quarterback for the second-straight week. It’s a big ask of the junior college transfer, considering that BYU’s offensive line has regressed as the season has worn on and weapons such as Epps, Lassiter and Hill are questionable to play.

The Cougars should have a healthy stable of running backs for the first time since Week 2; Offensive coordinator Aaron Roderick said freshman LJ Martin and Aidan Robbins are good to go.

But Iowa State has the 32nd best rushing defense in the country, giving up just 117 yards per game on the ground.

“They have the conference’s best defense for a reason,” Sitake said. “We gotta find a way to put points on the board and have our guys execute at a high level in all three phases so we can have a chance to win this game. Excited that we are home in front of our crowd. Looking forward to that being an advantage.”