Indianapolis, IN
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Indianapolis Colts Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 12-31-2023
The Las Vegas Raiders (7-8, 8-5-2 ATS, 4-11 O/U) clash with the Indianapolis Colts (8-7, 9-6 ATS, 10-5 O/U) in an AFC bout on Sunday afternoon. The Raiders posted a big road win against the Chiefs. The Colts were pelted with a road loss by the Falcons in their previous bout. These squads met last year in a game the Colts won by a 25-20 score.
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Raiders Stun Chiefs
The Las Vegas Raiders are targeting a third consecutive victory. Las Vegas is having a streaky year. They struggled in the opening few months and dismissed the head coach and GM. The squad has been competitive since. They recently lost three straight and have rebounded by defeating the Chargers and were marked 10.5-point dogs in a 20-14 road win against the Chiefs last week. They are just one game out of the wildcard. The Raiders have covered the spread in three of their last five games.
The squad decided to give Aidan O’Connell a chance due to the struggles of veteran Jimmy Garopolo. O’Connell has been solid, reaching 240 passing yards in three of his last five games. The 25-year-old QB has recorded 1675 passing yards and an 8:7 TD to INT ratio on the season.
Josh Jacobs did not play last week due to a quad injury and is questionable. The 25-year-old RB has posted 805 rushing yards on the season. Zamir White was stellar last week, rushing for 145 yards, and now has 268 yards on the year. Davante Adams has brought in at least 50 receiving yards in four of his last five games. The 30-year-old WR has issued 973 receiving yards on the year. The Las Vegas offense has scored 20 or fewer points in four of their last five games.
RUNNING WITH A PURPOSE 😤#LVvsKC | 📺 CBS pic.twitter.com/593gDwhIDx
— Las Vegas Raiders (@Raiders) December 25, 2023
The Raiders defense has been outstanding recently. The group has conceded 21 or fewer points in three straight games including just three points allowed to the Vikings. Last week, they only gave up 308 total yards to the potent Chiefs. Maxx Crosby was limited in practice on Thursday and is questionable. The pass defense is a strength, marking 10th, while the rush defense is not as strong, coming in at 22nd.
Las Vegas is scoring an average of only 19 points, ranking them 25th. They are conceding an average of only 19.6 points, good for eighth in the NFL.
Colts Lose to Falcons, Eye Wildcard
The Indianapolis Colts are aiming for a wildcard spot in the AFC. The squad is currently in the last spot but has several teams with the same record. The Colts have cooled down a bit, dropping two of their last three bouts. They lost to the Bengals, beat the Steelers by a 30-13 score two weeks ago, and were marked as 2.5-point dogs in an ugly 29-10 road loss to the Falcons last week. The Colts have covered the spread in three of their last five bouts.
Gardner Minshew has been solid in place of Anthony Richardson for the most part. The 27-year-old QB has reached 240 passing yards in three of his last five games. He only managed to record 201 passing yards last week and has 2940 passing yards and a 14:9 TD to INT ratio on the season.
Zack Moss did not play last week due to an arm injury. The veteran RB has 765 rushing yards. He was limited in practice on Thursday and is questionable. Jonathan Taylor made his return after missing a month and rushed for 43 yards. The 24-year-old RB has 457 rushing yards. Michael Pittman Jr. also did not play last week due to a shoulder injury but practiced on Thursday. The star receiver leads the squad with 1062 receiving yards. The Indianapolis offense has scored an average of only 25 points in their last three games.
JT once again doing JT things.
📺 FOX pic.twitter.com/CTQjymMJyE
— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) December 24, 2023
The Colts’ defense was outstanding against the Steelers, conceding just 13 points but struggled in the defeat last week, squandering 405 total yards and 29 points. They have allowed at least 28 points in three of their last four games. The Colts have a strong pass rush. Samson Ebukam has 9.5 sacks. The pass defense is 14th while the rush defense is marked 28th.
Indianapolis is averaging 23.6 points on the season, ranking them ninth. They are conceding an average of 24.8 points, placing them 28th.
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The Las Vegas Raiders are an inconsistent team that is hard to get a read on. They are only 2-3 in their last five games even after beating the Chiefs last week. The Indianapolis Colts are battling for a wildcard spot in the AFC and this is a huge game. The Colts have won two straight home games.
Furthermore, the Raiders have a weak rush defense that ranks 22nd in the NFL. This is key when considering Indianapolis has a stellar rushing offense that ranks 13th. While Moss is questionable, the Colts have Jonathan Taylor who is more than capable of propelling the offense on the ground. I am not sold on Raiders QB Aidan O’Connell. The rookie has only connected on 58% and 42% of his passes in his last two performances. The Colts have a solid pass defense that ranks above average at 14th.
Prediction: Indianapolis Colts -3.5
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I expect plenty of scoring. The Raiders’ offense is capable of producing big numbers. The Colts defense has been subpar. They were exploited by Atlanta last week and have conceded an average of 24.8 points in their last five games.
In addition, Indianapolis has been solid under Gardner Minshew. They are especially tough to contain at home where they have averaged 30.5 points in their last four bouts including 38 points against a strong Browns defense and 30 points against the Steelers. The over is 4-1 in the Colts’ last five games.
Prediction: Over 43