Indianapolis, IN
Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 9-17-2023
Two 0-1 teams will do battle in Texas on Sunday afternoon as the Indianapolis Colts travel to Houston to take on the Texans. This should be an interesting matchup of two teams with new head coaches and rookie quarterbacks leading the charge in this AFC South Divisional battle. The opening kick is slated for 1:00 PM EST on Sunday.
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Rookie Learning Curve
The Indianapolis Colts played admirably in week one and nearly pulled off an upset win against AFC South favorite Jacksonville before falling 31-12. The Colts have a new head coach, a new quarterback, and a new offensive scheme so things will take time. Rookie quarterback did a lot of good things, including one rushing and one passing touchdown, and some not-so-good things, a fourth-quarter interception with five minutes to play. Overall though, his coach was pleased with his efforts.
“I thought he played solid,” coach Shane Steichen said. “I’ll take fault for that interception right there. Second-and-10 and it was a Cover 2 deal and we didn’t have a great route called. [I have] to be better there. But I thought he managed the game well. He did some really good things. I’m really encouraged with his progress and what he did.”
Richardson’s final stats were solid. He was 24-of-37 for 223 yards and a touchdown while also rushing 10 times for 40 yards and an additional score. Richardson did this without any semblance of support from the Colts’ running game. The team’s top two backs, Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss, were both out with injuries and third-string back Deon Jackson fumbled twice in the game. Overall, the Colts’ running backs rushed 16 times for 25 yards. Richardson was able to find top wideout Michael Pittman Jr. eight times for 97 yards on the afternoon. Indianapolis was just 2-of-12 on third-down conversions in the game.
Defensively, the Colts were able to force two turnovers, one on a fumble and the other an interception by Samson Ebukam. Linebacker Zaire Franklin led the way with a game-high 17 tackles for the Colts’ defense. The Colts allowed 342 yards of total offense to the Jags but did hold their potent attack to just 3-of-12 on third-down conversions. All-in-all, it was a solid effort by a defense forced to deal with three turnovers from its offense.
The Colts are certainly in full rebuild mode after a 4-12-1 season a year ago and committing to Richardson as the full-time quarterback. In 2022, the team was ranked just 27th in the NFL in total offense including 23rd on the ground and through the air. The uncertain future of Taylor will weigh heavily on this year’s potential output on the ground although the addition of Richardson will certainly help. Steichen will certainly employ many aspects of the gameplan he used as the Eagles offensive coordinator last season with Jaylen Hurts as his quarterback given Richardson’s similar skill sets.
Defensively, the Colts were a respectable 15th in total defense last season. They were 20th against the run and a solid 11th against the pass. The team’s secondary has undergone some changes, most noticably the loss of Stephon Gilmore at cornerback. They still possess solid linebackers and a decent front four led by DeForest Buckner, who had a sack on Sunday.
Injury Report: Evan Hull – RB – IR (Knee), Zack Moss – RB – Questionable, Drew Ogletree – TE – Questionable (Concussion), JuJu Brents – CB – Questionable (Personal), Jonathan Taylor – RB – Out (ankle).
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Looking in a Mirror
The Houston Texans, like the Colts, are in the midst of a major rebuild and, also like the Colts, are doing so with a first-time head coach and a rookie quarterback. Unlike the Colts, the Texans had to hit the road to start the season as they traveled to Baltimore to take on the Ravens. Houston battled hard through the first half and trailed just 7-6 at the break. The veteran Ravens’ team wore down the Texans in the second half for a 25-9 win. Rookie head coach DeMarco Ryans and rookie quarterback CJ Stroud will be looking for their first win this week when the Colts come to town.
“First time out, C.J. was in a tough place to play, a tough opponent, a lot of things were stacked up against him,” Ryans said. “But I thought he handled himself well.”
Overall, Stroud was 28-of-43 for 242 yards without a touchdown or interception in the game against the veteran Ravens’ defense. Stroud did so behind an offensive line that is currently decimated by injury. Stroud (shoulder) is already banged up and has a tough time making it through the season if he doesn’t get better protection. As with most rookie quarterbacks, he also has to get rid of the ball quicker.
The Texans lost left guard Kenyon Green for the season after the last preseason game while center Juice Scruggs and right tackle Tytus Howard, both projected starters, will be out the first four weeks on injured reserve. Not surprisingly, Stroud was on the run much of the game and was sacked five times and lost a fumble. Stroud performed well despite much of a running game against the stout Ravens’ front seven. Damien Pierce led the way with just 38 yards rushing on 11 carries. Overall, the Texans ran for just 73 yards while averaging a dismal 3.1 yards per carry. Wide receivers Nico Collins and Robert Woods led the way with six catches each but neither broke 100 yards as the Texans were forced to settle for underneath passes with Stroud frequently under pressure. Stroud was a respectable 7-of-18 on third-down conversions in the game.
Defensively, the Texans hung tough and even held the dangerous Ravens’ offense to just seven points at halftime. The Texans sacked the ever-elusive Lamar Jackson four times in the game and had five tackles for loss overall. In fact, Jackson rushed for just 38 yards in the game and fumbled twice, losing one. The vaunted Ravens’ rushing attack averaged just 3.1 yards per carry in the game. Linebacker Denzel Perryman led the Texans with 11 tackles in the contest. Rookie edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. had six tackles in the game including a sack.
The Texans finished last season at just 3-13-1 and a game behind the Colts in the AFC South standings. Offensively, the Texans were a mess ranking 31st in total offense. The team was also 31st rushing the football and just 25th through the air. Stroud’s poise in the pocket on Sunday was a good sign, particularly against an above-average defense like the Ravens.
On the defensive end last season, the Texans were 30th in total defense. They were dead last against the run and 10th against the pass. Ryans’ influence was evident on Sunday as the Texans kept the Ravens’ rushing attack in check, holding them to 3.1 yards per carry.
Injury Report: Hassan Ridgeway – DT – IR, Noah Brown – WR – Questionable, Jimmie Ward – S – Questionable, John Metchie III – WR – Questionable, Dare Ogunbowale – RB – Questionable, Blake Cashman – LB – Questionable, Jalen Pitre – S – Questionable (chest), George Fant – OT – Questionable (shoulder)
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Last season, the teams met twice with the Texans winning once and the other game ended in a tie. Following their loss on Sunday, the Colts are now 1-6 ATS in their last seven games. They are also 1-7 ATS in their last eight games against teams from the AFC South.
Richardson’s lack of a running game will likely continue against a Houston defense that completely shut down a Ravens team that specializes in running the football. Without Taylor, the Colts will not be able to move the ball on the ground against Houston. Texans head coach Ryans also has experience facing quarterbacks that can run after his battles with the Eagles’ Hurts in the NFC over the last few seasons and against Jackson just last week. I expect the Texans to contain Richardson and force him to throw in the pocket.
Texans QB Stroud should be a bit more comfortable in the pocket facing the Colts than he was against the Ravens. Stroud showed an excellent ability to check down in week one against the Ravens and a willingness to take what the defense gives him. He will do that often on Sunday and help the Texans pull out their first win in the DeMarco Ryans Era.
Take the Texans -1.5
Prediction: Houston -1.5
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These two teams played to the under in both contests last season and in five straight in Houston. The Texans have also played to the under in seven of their last ten games and that trend should still be relevant with a rookie quarterback at the helm and the team employing a new offensive system. The Colts should also heav difficulty producing points on Sunday, particularly with the team’s struggles to convert on third down in week one. I expect a tightly played game that stays under what is already a modest total.
Take the under.
Prediction: Under 39