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Indianapolis Colts vs. Atlanta Falcons Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 12-24-2023
The Indianapolis Colts (8-6; 9-5-0 ATS) and Atlanta Falcons (6-8; 4-10-0 ATS) are fighting for their playoff lives on Sunday afternoon. A 1:00 p.m. EDT kickoff in Mercedes-Benz Stadium could be the difference between a postseason appearance or an early offseason for either side. Stakes will be sky-high for this interconference clash. Does that bode well for the home team, or are the Colts going to keep trending up?
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Colts are Coming Through
Holding onto the final AFC wild-card spot is nice, but Indianapolis is also tied for the AFC South lead with three games left. Their last game is against one of those teams, so the Colts just need a chance to make it count in Week 18. Winning tends to provide those opportunities, and last Saturday’s game brought the Colts to 5-1 in their past six. Four of those came on the road, and this will be Indy’s final time traveling during the regular season. Using an offense that’s eighth in scoring (24.6 ppg), the Colts can finish 6-2 as a visiting team. Backup QB Gardner Minshew has kept the team competitive, using Michael Pittman Jr. (probable) often. Colts QBs have been sacked a total of 33 times this season (10th). They’re 13th in rushing and 18th in passing as the final stretch of the season kicks off. Indianapolis knows how to move the ball in many ways.
The Colts’ defense gave up 34 points two weeks ago but responded by holding the Steelers to 13 points last week. Pittsburgh didn’t score for the final 44 minutes of the game. Indianapolis may allow 24.5 points per game (27th), but their defense also has 24 takeaways, a number that’s tied for the third-most in the NFL. The Colts also have 46 sacks, which is third in the league. When the defense isn’t making impact plays, they’re allowing 7.3 yards per pass attempt (24th) and 4.1 yards per carry (13th). Indianapolis is 20th in total yards allowed but 14th in yards per play. The defense can get into trouble, but turnovers often negate the damage, while helping the offense.
Falcons Falling
After December 3’s games, the Atlanta Falcons were in sole possession of first place in the NFC South, as the only team without a losing record. They’ve lost a pair of division games late since then, both on last-minute scores and suddenly find themselves alone in third place. A wild-card spot is alive (but unlikely), so Atlanta has that option too. Regardless, the Falcons need to win again, which requires more from the offense. Atlanta mustered seven points against the Carolina Panthers last week, opening themselves up to a two-point loss. They turned the ball over twice, adding to their -6 turnover differential. This group averages 18.4 points per game (26th) and 5.0 yards per play (22nd), despite plenty of first-round talent. The QB situation hasn’t helped, and the team is turning to Taylor Heinicke for this one. Will it lead to double-digit points in their final home game?
Meanwhile, the defense has only allowed one team to exceed 15 points against them in the past four weeks. They’ll try to keep the Colts in check too, with a group giving up only 19.9 points per game (8th). That’s despite only 15 takeaways and 30 sacks. Instead, the Falcons are just great at keeping opposing players in front of them. They allow 6.6 yards per pass (8th), 3.9 yards per rush (9th), and 4.9 yards per play (7th) overall. The results have been encouraging lately, and this should be their toughest remaining test in the regular season. Can they put a bow on their current 4-3 home record?
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Best Bets for this Game
Full-Game Side Bet
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This is their home finale, which should provide the Falcons a boost. They’re already better at home, and have a defense that can limit Indianapolis’ offensive production. It’ll be on the offense’s shoulders to take advantage of a Colts team allowing 24.5 points per game.
At home, the Falcons average 23.3 points per game, so their scoring issues shouldn’t hold them back this week. Desmond Ridder is the Atlanta quarterback responsible for most of the team’s giveaways, but he’s not starting in this one. Ball security leads to points, and Atlanta’s 20+ points lead to a win by at least a field goal. Take them to cover the spread.
Prediction: Atlanta Falcons -2.5
Full-Game Total Pick
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At home this season, the Falcons average 23.3 points per game. They’re going up against a defense that allows 24.5 points per game, highlighted by 62 total points in their previous two road outings. Atlanta shouldn’t have any issue scoring at least 24.
Then, there’s a Colts team that is putting up 24.6 points per game this season. That number isn’t affected by travel (dips to 24.2), while Atlanta allows more points at home (21.7). The Colts put up at least 20 almost every week, and this one shouldn’t be any different. Take the over in Atlanta.
Prediction: Over 44.5