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Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 1-6-2024
Essentially, Saturday night’s contest between the Houston Texans (9-7; 8-8-0 ATS) and the Indianapolis Colts (9-7; 9-7-0 ATS) is a playoff game. The winner is in the playoffs. The loser will have a longer offseason than they dreamed of. This massive Week 18 AFC South clash is in Lucas Oil Stadium at 8:15 p.m. EDT. Houston hopes to avenge a home loss in Week 2. Indianapolis needs a sweep, or their season is over. Who will come out on top?
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Texans are Win and In
If the Houston Texans win this game, they will be in the playoffs. If the Jacksonville Jaguars also lose, Houston will host their first playoff game as AFC South champions. Rookie QB C.J. Stroud, the second overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, can signal an instant turnaround for the Texans. He has the Houston offense tied for the fewest takeaways in the NFL entering Week 18. The Texans are fourth in passing, which is the main reason they put up 22.1 points per game (14th). On the ground, Houston is only picking up 3.8 yards per carry (26th). Sacks have been an issue, but Houston is a much different team than they were in Week 2. Can they pull through on the road?
Meanwhile, the defense will want to be better than the 31 points they gave up to the Colts in Week 2. They’re 13th in scoring before the game, allowing 20.9 points per game. Houston allows the second-fewest yards per rush (3.3), ranks 10th in sacks (45), and has 23 takeaways. Their greatest flaw is through the air, where the Texans allow 7.8 yards per attempt (30th). Houston only allowed three in last week’s crucial divisional win. Can they do it again?
Colts are Win and In
If the Indianapolis Colts win this game, they will be in the playoffs. If the Jacksonville Jaguars also lose, Indianapolis will host their first playoff game as AFC South champions. They’ll try to sweep the Texans this season, this time with Gardner Minshew starting the game (Anthony Richardson started in Week 2) and Jonathan Taylor active (he was on IR). It’ll be interesting to see how they impact an offense that put up 31 points that week. The Colts average 23.6 points per game (10th) this season and that number jumps to 26.5 at home. Indianapolis has 21 giveaways this season. They’re 16th in sacks allowed, 16th in rushing average, and 22nd in passing average. The Colts have scored at least 21 points in every home game and need that streak to stay intact if they want a postseason appearance.
That’s because the Colts’ defense is an issue. They’re 27th in points against (24.5), and allow 25.8 points per game at home. Five of their last six opponents have put up at least 20 points. It’s not all bad, as the Colts have 49 sacks (5th) and 24 takeaways. Their defense has faced more snaps than any other in the league, which hasn’t helped them succeed. Indianapolis allows 5.2 yards per play (18th), with mediocre numbers against the pass and run. Can the Colts finish the regular season strong defensively?
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Full-Game Side Bet
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The Houston Texans are a different team than they were in Week 2. Their defense is allowing under 20 points per game since losing to the Colts back then. The offense is averaging over 23 points per game since then after only scoring 29 total in the first two weeks of the season.
Meanwhile, Indianapolis’ defense has been concerning. They allow more points per game at home and have only held the Steelers under 20 points in their past six games. Houston’s explosive passing game should give them fits all night long. It’ll be a tight battle, but Houston should finish with the win in hand.
Prediction: Houston Texans -1
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Full-Game Total Pick
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This will be a game where the offenses dominate. The Colts allow 5.8 points per game at home and have allowed at least 20 in five of their past six. Meanwhile, Indianapolis’ offense has put up at least 20 in every home game they’ve played this season.
The Texans allow the third-most yards per pass attempt, something that the Colts can exploit again. Indianapolis allows 7.2 yards per pass attempt and is up against the NFL’s fourth-most explosive passing game. No lead will be safe in this one, as both sides will be capable of quick scoring drives through the air. Take the over on Saturday night.
Prediction: Over 47.5