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Cleveland Browns vs. Indianapolis Colts Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 10-22-2023
The Indianapolis Colts will host the Cleveland Browns on Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium. Kickoff is at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Cleveland (3-2 SU and 3-2 ATS) beat San Francisco 19-17 last weekend and Indianapolis (3-3 SU and 3-3 ATS) lost 37-20 to Jacksonville.
The Browns are three-point spread favorites and the game total is 40.5 points.
Injury Report
Browns: G Michael Dunn is out. QB Deshaun Watson, RB Kareem Hunt, G Joel Bitonio, C Ethan Pocic, TE Harrison Bryant, CB Greg Newsome II, and LB Anthony Walker Jr. are questionable. WR Cedric Tillman is probable.
Colts: QB Anthony Richardson and RB Evan Hull are sidelined. TE Kylen Granson, WR Alec Pierce, C Ryan Kelly, OT Braden Smith, and CB Tony Brown are questionable to suit up.
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What will the Browns do for an encore?
Cleveland earned a triumphant victory over San Francisco last week, as the Dawg Pound was in full force. The Niners managed only 215 total yards, including 3.6 yards per passing completion. They were 3-for-12 on third down and lost the time of possession battle, giving Cleveland the extra opportunities it needed to win.
While far from perfect (18-for-34 passing), QB PJ Walker held down the fort in place of Deshaun Watson. The Temple product got the most out of his receiving corps, hitting WR Amari Cooper four times for 108 yards. It was the Browns’ rushing attack that did the heavy lifting, though (34 carries for 160 yards). Bettors should anticipate more of the same on Sunday versus the Colts.
Cleveland scores 19.0 points per game (21st) and averages 319.8 total yards (19th), including 172.8 passing yards (30th) and 147.0 rushing yards (4th). It converts 30.5 percent of its third downs (31st) and finds the end zone on 58.3 percent of its trips to the red zone (9th).
The Cleveland defense surrenders 15.4 points (5th) and 200.4 total yards (1st) per game, including 121.4 passing yards (1st) and 79.0 rushing yards (4th). The Browns have 15 sacks and two interceptions this season. Their opponents have converted only 23.0 percent of their third down attempts (1st) and have found the end zone on 66.6 percent of their visits to the red zone (26th).
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Can Indy regain its footing at home?
Indy was outmatched in Jacksonville last week, losing by 17 points despite outgaining the Jaguars by 121 total yards. QB Gardner Minshew, filling in for Anthony Richardson, threw three interceptions and the Colts’ ground game couldn’t get in gear, rushing for 44 yards.
Is Indianapolis going to crash without Richardson? The rookie injected new life into the franchise but has been ruled out for the rest of the season following shoulder surgery. Minshew was incapable of inspiring confidence vs. Jacksonville, averaging just 6.0 yards per passing completion with one score despite attempting 55 passes.
Running back Zack Moss, who gashed Tennessee for 165 yards the previous week, was held to just 21 yards on seven carries, and backfield mate Jonathan Taylor cruised for 19 yards on eight carries. Down 21-6 at halftime and 31-6 after three quarters, Indy was forced to abandon the ground game, but the performance was concerning nonetheless.
The Colts score 23.3 points per game (11th) and average 345.3 total yards (10th), including 228.7 passing yards (10th) and 116.7 rushing yards (14th). They convert 38.3 percent of their third downs (18th) and find the end zone on 55.0 percent of their visits to the red zone (16th).
Indianapolis gives up 25.3 points (25th) and 357.2 total yards (26th) per game on defense, including 243.7 passing yards (23rd) and 113.5 rushing yards (19th). Indy has 18 sacks and four interceptions this season. Its opponents convert 37.5 percent of their third-down attempts (11th) and find the end zone on 57.8 percent of their trips to the red zone (21st).
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There isn’t a good chance Watson plays Sunday, and with Walker under center, I’m bullish on Indy’s chances at an outright win.
Last week’s performance versus Jacksonville was miserable, as Minshew’s return to his former stomping grounds didn’t go as he hoped. Instead, he was picked off three times and led Indianapolis’ offense right into the dirt. He’ll respond this week, though, giving the Colts a chance against a dominant Cleveland defense. “Minshew Mania” may be in the rearview, but he can still play ball. His QBR, 54.2, is solid, and he completed 70.3 percent of his passes in his first three games this season. Granted that he gets the ball out quickly, he can provide offensive balance, allowing Indy to run the football more effectively than it did against the Jaguars.
The Browns’ offense did enough to beat the Niners, but Walker will have to be much more comfortable in the pocket if he’s going to deliver more catchable balls this week. The Colts have 18 sacks, tied for fifth-most in the NFL, and will not hesitate to bring the pressure on Sunday. With Hunt questionable to play, Walker could be on an island if the Browns can’t run the football effectively on early downs. That doesn’t sound too promising for a road favorite.
I’ll bet on the Colts to cover at +3!
Prediction: Colts +3
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There isn’t a chance this total goes under 40.5! The Colts aren’t getting enough love because of last week’s stinker of a showing at Jacksonville, and the Browns are also being overlooked.
Indianapolis ran the football down Tennessee’s throats two weeks ago. I figure between Moss and Taylor, at least one of Indy’s backs will get going at home, giving Minshew a much better chance in the passing game. The Browns are an elite defensive unit, but will they have a letdown performance after upsetting the 49ers? Overlooking the Colts would be foolish, as Minshew only needs to be efficient enough to keep the chains moving. With Taylor back for his third game, the run game should be capable, especially in the red zone, where the Browns are giving up touchdowns 66.6 percent of the time (26th in the NFL).
Cleveland’s offense had its moments against San Francisco, and it shouldn’t struggle too much against Indianapolis. The Colts are not stout against the run or the pass, so Walker shouldn’t have too much trouble moving the football if the line holds up in pass protection. Hunt may be questionable, but Jerome Ford (17 carries for 84 yards) was solid against the 49ers.
At 40.5, I feel that the total is too low and will be targeting the over for a five-unit wager.
Prediction: Over 40.5