Buccaneers vs Colts Odds, Prediction: NFL Week 12 Preview

The latest Buccaneers vs Colts odds for NFL Week 12 have Indianapolis installed as 2.5-point favorites on the spread with a game total of 44.5.

Indianapolis and Tampa Bay didn’t come into the season with high expectations after the Colts picked in the top five in the NFL Draft and the Buccaneers lost Tom Brady to retirement. Through 11 weeks of NFL football, though, both teams are right in the middle of their respective playoff races. Tampa Bay is 4-6 but just one game out of first in the middling NFC South, while Indianapolis is down to backup quarterback Gardner Minshew but just one game out of the AFC wild card race.

Both of these defenses have major holes in their secondaries right now, and now indoors on the fast surface in Indianapolis, the total is a bit deflated under the key number of 45. Let’s get to my Tampa Bay-Indianapolis betting preview for NFL Week 12, which includes a Buccaneers vs Colts prediction.

Buccaneers vs. Colts Odds

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Buccaneers vs Colts Prediction

The Colts offense has been a complete dud over the last two weeks against the Panthers and Patriots. The offense produced 13 points against a porous Carolina defense and then just 10 against New England. Gardner Minshew’s efficiency numbers have been steadily dwindling, but you could see a rejuvenated squad coming off the bye week.

Teams have had success against the Colts by not blitzing Minshew and dropping into coverage with a lot of defenders. They’ve basically sat there and waited for him to make mistakes.

That’s not really how the Buccaneers want to play defense. They’re going to bring pressure and blitz — Minshew has also made a ton of turnover-worthy plays when blitzed. He has one big-time throw and seven turnover-worthy plays in these situations.

The injury report for the Tampa secondary could leave the Bucs more exposed than usual, though. Jamel Dean has been ruled out, Carlton Davis III is questionable, linebacker Lavonte David is out and two defensive lineman are listed as questionable as well.

The Buccaneers defense has run well in high-leverage situations this year. I wrote last week about this defense being fortunate with fumble luck and in the red zone. Tampa Bay has the third-highest defensive fumble recovery rate and has also allowed by far the lowest red-zone touchdown percentage in the league.

The Colts aren’t a great offense overall, but Shane Steichen’s play calling and creativity have made them a solid red-zone offense. Indianapolis is seventh in red-zone touchdown percentage offensively.

The defense has had back-to-back elite games against Carolina and New England, but that’s more of a commentary on the quality of the opposing offenses faced.

The Colts are without their best run stopper in Grover Stewart. Top pass-rusher Kwity Paye is not 100%, the secondary is ravaged by injuries and there’s very little havoc happening for Gus Bradley’s defense overall.

Indianapolis cut Shaquille Leonard this week, which may actually be addition by subtraction because he had been relegated to a part-time role due to his lack of effectiveness and overall game speed.

If you compare the total for this game to the recent contests the Colts have played, you can see why it is a bit deflated.

Indianapolis-Carolina closed at 43.5 despite Carolina’s offense being far worse than the Buccaneers’. Patriots-Colts closed at 42.5 in Germany despite New England being a fellow bottom-five offense along with Carolina.

The Colts still play at the quickest pace in the NFL, the Buccaneers offense is relatively healthy and this total should be 45. I’d bet over at anything 44.5 or better.

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