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2026 NCAA Tournament Bracket Strategy: Tips & Trends to Win Your Pool

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2026 NCAA Tournament Bracket Strategy: Tips & Trends to Win Your Pool


One of the best traditions in sports is back at last. The 68-team 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket is set, and tens of millions will fill out their own brackets in the coming days, chasing bragging rights and the near-impossible perfect bracket across 67 games.

With upsets on tap, Cinderellas emerging, and blue-blood programs chasing another national title, everyone is searching for an edge with their bracket strategy.

There’s no guaranteed formula, but NCAA Tournament history offers clues.

Here are our NCAA Tournament bracket tips and trends that can improve your college basketball bracket predictions and help you win your bracket pool this year.

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2026 NCAA Tournament Bracket Strategy: 8 Tips to Win Your Pool

Many people know the one co-worker with minimal “ball knowledge” who has won the bracket pool by win coin flips for every game. Or the friend who nailed the national semifinal teams by picking based on mascots.

You can put in hours of research on advanced metrics, matchup breakdowns — and somehow, your bracket is busted before the first weekend ends.

If there’s one bad habit we have for brackets, it’s overthinking the wrong things. After hours spent diving into the data, it’s easy to get lost in the sauce.

Let’s narrow this bracket strategy to eight NCAA Tournament tips and trends to focus on when filling out brackets, melding together historical trends with this year’s tournament teams.

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Tip #1: Don’t Sweat the Upsets

Upsets are what separate the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament from any other tournament, constantly providing results that no one could have expected.

Of course, upsets will happen, but how much do they really impact your bracket pool ranking? Most pools double your points by round for each correct pick. For example, you may earn 10 points for a first-round pick, followed by 20 points for the second round, and up to 320 points for nailing the National Champion.

With that said, maybe people place too much emphasis on the upsets. 

Someone may be seen as a genius for predicting a 14-seed to upset a No. 3. But in the Round of 32, that 14-seed loses. In the end, that bracket only has a small advantage — usually 10 points — over the competition.

That’s dust in the wind compared to 80 points for a correct national semifinal pick.

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Your time could be best served focusing on the later rounds — the teams that have real tournament longevity. High accuracy in hitting your final eight teams can easily erase any first- and second-round woes.

Tip #2: Make Your National Champion Pick With Data

Over the last 23 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournaments, 22 champions entered the bracket ranked in the top 25 of adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency on KenPom — an advanced analytic resource for college basketball.

Eight teams currently fit that metric: Duke, Arizona, Michigan, Florida, Houston, Iowa State, Michigan State, and Louisville. To no surprise, PrizePicks Team Picks — a sports prediction market — has the first six teams above listed as the favorites to win the NCAA Tournament, while Michigan State and Louisville are longer shot picks.

Oddly enough, Week 6 of the AP Top 25 Poll also holds some magic, with 21 consecutive and 35 of the last 36 champions ranking in the top 12 of the Week 6 poll. Out of the eight squads above, Florida is the only team that doesn’t fit the trend, ranked No. 18 in December’s poll.

Tip #3: 5 Seeds Have Never Won a National Title

When selecting a champ, team seeds should be kept in mind. Every seedline one through eight has won a national title — except for No. 5 seeds. In 2023, No. 5 San Diego State appeared in the national championship game, but it fell short against No. 4 UConn.

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In the last 40 tournaments, 26 No. 1 seeds, five No. 2 seeds, four No. 3 seeds, two No. 4 seeds, one No. 6 seed, one No. 7 seed, and one No. 8 seed have won it all. As expected, the consistent pick is with No. 1 seeds, taking home 65 percent (26) of the past 40 titles.

No. 1 seeds are even more dominant in recent history; over the past 10 NCAA Tournaments, eight No. 1 seeds cut down the nets (or 80 percent). Perhaps the top seed isn’t the most exciting pick, but it yields results more often than not.

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Tip #4: Recent Tournaments Have Been Chalky

The 2025 NCAA Tournament featured all four No. 1 seeds in the national semifinals for the first time since 2008. An average of 1.6 No. 1 seeds per tournament appeared in the national semifinals from 2014 to 2024. 

From 2013 to 2023, an average of 0.9 No. 1 seeds per tournament lost in the first weekend of play — the first or second round. Recent history busted that trend, with all four No. 1 seeds advancing to the Round of 16 in the last two tournaments.

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While upsets are still bound to happen, the top dogs are creating separation from the pack. Perhaps this is a recent trend that could continue, with Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) introduced in the 2021-22 season, allowing the teams with the most financial backing to recruit and pay the best talent — even more so than before.

With that in mind, don’t be afraid to lean on more chalk by selecting the lowest seed in matchups, especially when it comes to the top teams.

Tip #5: And Then There Were Four

The national semifinals also win some serious points in your bracket pool. Let’s go over a few trends for selecting the four teams that will play for all the marbles in Indianapolis this year.

Before the 2025 NCAA Tournament, a No. 4 seed or higher had advanced in the national semifinals in 14 consecutive brackets. Last year bucked that trend, but there’s still plenty of history there.

On average, one ACC per tournament has appeared in the national semifinals since 2015. This included some improbable runs, such as No. 11 NC State in 2024 and No. 5 Miami (FL) in 2023. 

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Perhaps that’s support for circling Duke in 2026, which is tied as the favorite to earn a national semifinal berth on PrizePicks Team Picks, with a 1.75x payout to make it to the round of four.

Predicting the correct national championship game produces a truckload of points in bracket pools, too, and six of the last 10 title games featured two No. 1 seeds duking it out.

Tip #6: Expect Some Double-Digit Seed Upsets

These tips have focused plenty on the later rounds with juicy bracket pool points. But is it any fun without upsets? Don’t worry, there will be plenty of them.

Since the 2015 NCAA Tournament, an average of 8.9 upsets — or the lower-seeded team defeating the higher seed — occurred in the first round of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. 

This pertains to any lower seed grabbing a dub, including No. 9 seeds over the No. 9 seedline. Last season featured only seven first-round upsets, emphasizing the chalk discussed above.

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However, over the last 10 tournaments, No. 10, 11, and 12 each average at least one first-round win per tournament.

  • No. 10 seeds – 1.5 average first-round wins since 2015
  • No. 11 seeds – 2.0
  • No. 12 seeds – 1.3
  • No. 13 and No. 14 seeds (combined) – 1.3

A No. 15 or 16 seed has not won a game over the last two tournaments. That’s the first time since 2014 and 2015 that back-to-back tournaments featured all one and two seeds advancing to the second round.

With that said, even last season’s chalky bracket still had seven first-round upsets — and five were double-digit seeds snagging Ws.

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Tip #7: Prepare for First Weekend Chaos

Upsets are still frequent in the first weekend — consisting of the first and second rounds, meaning surprise teams continue to earn Round of 16 bids. 

Over the last 10 tournaments, 1.6 double-digit seeds per tournament advanced to the second weekend of the tournament.

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Nine of the past 10 tournaments had a double-digit seed in the Round of 16. Even the chalky 2025 NCAA Tournament featured No. 10 Arkansas knocking off No. 2 St. John’s in the Round of 32. 

Eight of the last 10 tournaments had at least one No. 2 seed losing in the first weekend of play. Furthermore, an average of 1.7 No. 3 seeds lost in the first weekend per year over the last 10 tournaments. 

Maybe fans haven’t enjoyed the usual Cinderella runs or No. 1 or 2 seeds falling in the first round, but upsets still occur, even in the chalkiest brackets.

Tip #8: A Perfect Bracket is Nearly Impossible

Above all else, have fun with your bracket. Don’t let the multitude of trends and data drive you to insanity. Roll with your favorite data and go with your gut. Bumps in the road are inevitable.

You think winning the Powerball is impossible? Try hitting a perfect bracket. In fact, your chance at a perfect bracket — with zero ball knowledge — is a one in 9.2 quintillion chance.

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There has never been a verified perfect bracket. A man from Ohio holds the best verifiable win streak with 49 consecutive correct picks to begin his 2019 NCAA Tournament bracket.

In short, try to be easy on yourself as you fill out your 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket, as no one has ever pulled off the nearly impossible feat of a perfect bracket.

Make NCAA Tournament Picks on PrizePicks

From upset predictions to national championship picks for the NCAA Tournament, PrizePicks has it all in one spot, giving you the chance to earn real money with sports picks. 

Your NCAA Tournament bracket picks can translate to college basketball predictions on PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can make predictions on winners, spread, and over/unders — now available in 35 states. Team Picks also offers futures, including payouts for the national championship and teams to advance to each round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

Keep tabs on the Playbook for continued college basketball predictions, picks, and news all the way through the NCAA Tournament.

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Indianapolis, IN

See inside Indianapolis Public Library’s upgraded, accessible bookmobiles

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See inside Indianapolis Public Library’s upgraded, accessible bookmobiles


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The Indianapolis Public Library’s bookmobiles have been a crucial part of the library’s public outreach for nearly 75 years, but they recently got a much-needed upgrade to improve patron experiences and overall accessibility.

Bookmobiles are essentially a library branch on wheels. Almost all library services are available on board, from checking out books, movies, magazines, CDs and more as well as signing up for a library card, placing holds and more. They play a huge part in the library’s public outreach by bringing library services to people who can’t get to the library themselves or those who simply don’t have a branch nearby.

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The Frog and Toad bookmobiles, aptly named for the beloved children’s book characters of the same names, were recently replaced with upgraded vehicles that are smaller in size, but ultimately more accessible to patrons.

“The main goal of our department is to bring the library to those who can’t get to the library,” Maggie Ward, manager of outreach services and volunteer resources at the Indianapolis Public Library said. “So we wanted to make sure our new bookmobiles were fitting into that of being more accessible.”

The new vehicles will allow bookmobiles to attend more events and be a part of parades, since they are more compact and easier to maneuver on the road.

New bookmobiles are more accessible

The manual wheelchair ramps make them accessible for patrons who previously were unable to get on board due to the steep, and sometimes unreliable, electric wheelchair ramps on the last ones.

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“All of our wheelchair/walker-using patrons, anybody you know with mobility issues, have a lot easier time getting off the bookmobile,” Ward said.

“Even though they’re shorter and people have talked about ‘oh, it’s smaller’ and nuances aside, it’s so much better,” Amber Scott, driver and circulation clerk for Bookmobile Toad, said. “Like scouting new places, the first thing would be ‘can the vehicle fit’ and a lot of time it would be like there’s no place for us to park.”

These vehicles should also be a lot easier to maintain, meaning the bookmobiles will spend less time in the shop and more out in the community.

Frog and Toad bookmobiles cater to different age groups

Frog is the blue bookmobile and most often the selection on board caters to children and stops at daycares and preschools, while Toad, the green bookmobile, has books more geared toward adult readers and makes stops at senior living communities or neighborhoods without a library branch nearby.

Despite weather constraints, the bookmobiles can still bring the library experience to patrons in a way they couldn’t before.

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On days too hot for patrons of senior communities or schools to come outside to the bookmobiles, the new ones are equipped with shelving units that can be removed and rolled inside.

“Last time we were scheduled for a visit, it was so hot, but we had missed a couple visits because we have our own weather policy that we won’t go if it’s too cold or hot because we don’t want people coming outside,” Scott said. “Since we have this now, we took three carts into their lobby and just set up with our laptop and the hot spot and everybody was there that we would usually see.”

“We only cancel if it’s extreme weather, but even then we’ll try to just do deliveries if we can,” Ward said.

The library has a small fleet of Ford Escapes to deliver holds and materials to patrons that they requested.

“We call them Itty Bitties,” Scott said.

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Each bookmobile comes with a librarian

The Frog and Toad bookmobiles each have their own librarian on board to assist patrons and help provide a full library experience.

“We have a lot of patrons who tell us they schedule their day around us,” the librarian for bookmobile Toad Katie Watson-Juarez said. “We have residents who don’t really leave their rooms except to come out to the bookmobile because they love coming. That probably is one of the best parts is knowing people are so excited that we’re coming.”

Residents from one of bookmobile Toad’s stops at Rittenhouse Village Northside shared their favorite things about the visits.

“I think it’s a great system for the ease it makes for us,” resident Mark, who likes to read Western books, said. “I don’t have to go out and go to a library or something, even though it’s nice to do that. This is just an exception to that rule.”

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“I like living here, but when you read you get to go somewhere else,” resident Tony — who likes to read detective novels and listen to jazz CDs — said.

That is one of the main reasons Brittney Spencer, celebrations director at Rittenhouse Village Northside put in the request for the bookmobile.

“It has opened the world up for them to be able to escape,” Spencer said. “My whole job is to try and get them to escape out of worries of like their health or anything like that, so it is great that they’re here and able to provide that for us.”

Getting people excited about reading is something both bookmobiles provide to the community.

“For some of these kids, this is their first ever experience with the library, because we visit a lot of preschools and stuff, so I mean just kind of showing them what a library is all about, getting them excited about it is kind of fun,” Kathleen Stewart said.

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The bookmobiles are in high demand as there is currently a waitlist to be included in their routes. They operate on a biweekly schedule, visiting the same spots every two weeks.

And it doesn’t take a library card to enjoy the bookmobiles. They have books not in circulation available to readers without library cards to read and return.

The new bookmobile Toad started being used on June 1, while Bookmobile Frog has only been up-and-running since June 29, so the excitement of the new vehicles is still very fresh for the library staff as well as their patrons.

“I just love the versatility of these as opposed to our other ones,” Stewart said. “There’s so much we can do with it.”

Libraries are more than just a place to checkout books. They provide resources, services and often act as a community space for people to connect outside of home and work, which is something even the bookmobiles are able to provide.

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“We’re bringing that third space to them, that connection,” Ward said. “So it’s more than just the books, it’s that community connection.”

Katie Wiseman covers trending news for IndyStar and Midwest Connect. Contact her at klwiseman@indystar.com. Follow her on Bluesky, Twitter and Instagram.





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Indianapolis, IN

Businesses await next steps after Braun ends diversity program

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Businesses await next steps after Braun ends diversity program


INDIANAPOLIS (WISH) — A business owner on Thursday said programs like Indiana’s now-discontinued Supplier Diversity Program get minority-owned businesses into the room.

Pierre Dunn owns DC One Connect, a construction contractor already certified as a minority-owned business by the city of Indianapolis.

Dunn says that certification helped him get a $3.5 million contract for the new IU Health patient care tower, among other projects. He said he was scheduled for an interview with the Indiana Department of Administration on Wednesday afternoon to get a state-level minority business certification. He learned early Wednesday morning that the interview was canceled.

“I gave him a call, and he said at this point, I was told to cancel all interviews,” Dunn said of his conversation with the person he was supposed to interview with. “And it was pretty quiet, and he said that’s all he could say at this point. It was shocking.”

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An order from Gov. Mike Braun, issued Tuesday, backed up by an opinion from Attorney General Todd Rokita released the following day, ended Indiana’s Supplier Diversity Program in favor of a new Indiana Small Business Program, which is directed “to promote and facilitate the use of qualified Indiana small businesses in state procurement.”

Under the old program, the state had a goal of awarding 8% of state contracts to minority-owned businesses, 10% to women-owned businesses, and 3% to veteran-owned businesses.

The Indiana Department of Administration told “News 8” Indiana that it had 1,136 certified minority business enterprises and 1,509 certified women business enterprises. Certified businesses held more than $12.2 billion in state contracts. The Mid-States Minority Supplier Development Council said businesses it has certified generate nearly $9.5 billion in revenue each year and support more than 32,000 jobs.

Dunn says the value of programs like the Supplier Diversity Program is that they get people like him into the conversation when it comes time to bid on projects.

“They want to walk in a room with confidence that this is where I belong, I have a shot,” Dunn said. “It speaks more to the confidence of putting your name in the hat. And that changes communities. It encourages communities.”

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Braun administration officials have said most minority-owned businesses will likely be eligible for the new small business program and, unlike the previous program, will have the opportunity to serve as prime contractors on state projects rather than subcontractors. The governor on Wednesday said his order aligns the state with recent Supreme Court rulings.

“I think this gives more freedom for anyone at the end of the scale, where you’re a small business, to be able to now be in a place to benefit from it,” he said. “It’s just getting us into a place where we won’t be handicapped by something that got confusing and no longer, probably, has currency.”

Dunn said the governor’s order reflects someone who has not had the same lived experiences as a minority business owner. He said he thinks the new small business program sounds good in theory and probably will still lead to state contracts for minority-owned businesses, but the governor will have to market the new program to minority-owned businesses.

“He could always come to my office, and we can go to those outreaches together and see how that participation, that campaign works out,” he said. “Let’s roll it out and see. It sounds great in theory, but practically, does it work? What he needs to understand is that it’s effective. When minority businesses are given the opportunities with a local, other local businesses, it changes our community.”

The governor’s order suspends all active and pending certifications but leaves state contracts in effect. Agencies are directed to continue to follow the terms of those contracts.

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See ‘The Odyssey’ as Nolan intended at one Indiana IMAX theater

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See ‘The Odyssey’ as Nolan intended at one Indiana IMAX theater


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“The Odyssey” director Christopher Nolan has long been an advocate for IMAX 70mm film, advising movie buffs to get the best viewing experience possible in special IMAX theaters.

Very few locations around the world are capable of projecting the film, however, with just 25 U.S. theaters airing Nolan’s newest movie in the special format.

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Luckily, Indianapolis is among the locations where fans can see “The Odyssey” in 70mm at one IMAX location.

What is ‘The Odyssey’ about?

Based on Homer’s epic poem, the three-hour saga (in theaters July 17) follows Greek king Odysseus (Matt Damon) on his 10-year journey back to Ithaca to reunite with his wife, Penelope (Anne Hathaway), and son, Telemachus (Tom Holland). Throughout his journey Odysseus faces off against sirens, giants and sea gods.

What is a 70mm film projection?

70mm film projection is a wide high-resolution film gauge for motion picture photography, according to Indiewire. It is a process of projecting movies onto a big screen using a film print that is 70mm wide, which is about twice the size of regular 35mm film.

Nolan’s “The Odyssey” is the first major studio movie to ever be filmed completely with IMAX cameras, as they are notoriously costly, loud and bulky to operate, according to USA TODAY.

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Why does Christopher Nolan prefer 70 mm film projection?

Nolan previously told the Associated Press he is a longtime fan of the filming method, creating other films like “Dunkirk” and “Tenet” with the large format film stock as well.

He explained that viewers are getting the feeling of 3D without the glasses, adding that the sharpness and clarity of the cameras immerse them in the world of the film.

“You rarely get the chance to really talk to moviegoers directly about why you love a particular format and why if they can find an IMAX screen to see the film on that’s great,” Nolan said. “We put a lot of effort into shooting the film in a way that we can get it out on these large format screens. It really is just a great way of giving people an experience that they can’t possibly get in the home.”

Where can you see ‘The Odyssey’ on 70mm film in Indiana?

Moviegoers can see “The Odyssey” in 15 perf/70mm film in the IMAX Theatre at the Indiana State Museum. As of Wednesday, July 15, some showings for opening weekend already were sold out.

Where are all 25 IMAX 70mm theaters showing ‘The Odyssey?’

Here’s where to see it in IMAX:

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  • Harkins Arizona Mills 25 & IMAX – Tempe, Arizona
  • Regal LA Live & IMAX – Los Angeles, CA
  • AMC Metreon 16 & IMAX – San Francisco, California
  • Universal Cinema AMC at CityWalk Hollywood & IMAX – Universal City, California
  • TCL Chinese Theater IMAX – Hollywood, California
  • Regal Edwards Ontario Palace & IMAX – Ontario, Canada
  • Regal Irvine Spectrum 21 + IMAX – Irvine, California
  • Esquire IMAX – Sacramento, California
  • Regal Hacienda Crossings & IMAX – Dublin, California
  • Cinemark Carefree Circle & IMAX – Colorado Springs, Colorado
  • Regal Colorado Center 9 & IMAX – Denver, Colorado
  • AutoNation IMAX, Museum of Discovery & Science – Fort Lauderdale
  • Regal Mall of Georgia & IMAX – Buford, Georgia
  • Cinemark Seven Bridges & IMAX – Woodridge, Illinois
  • IMAX Theatre at Indiana State Museum – Indianapolis, Indiana
  • Celebration! Cinema Grand Rapids North & IMAX – Grand Rapids, Michigan
  • Brenden Palms 14 & IMAX – Las Vegas, Nevada
  • AMC Lincoln Square 13 & IMAX – New York, New York
  • Cinemark Tinseltown Rochester & IMAX – Rochester, New York
  • Regal UA King of Prussia & IMAX – King of Prussia, Pennsylvania
  • Apple Cinemas Providence Place & IMAX – Providence,  Rhode Island
  • IMAX at the Tennessee Aquarium – Chattanooga, Tennessee
  • Regal Opry Mills & IMAX – Nashville, Tennessee
  • AMC Rivercenter 11 & IMAX – San Antonio, Texas
  • Cinemark Dallas & IMAX – Dallas, Texas

CONTRIBUTING: Patrick Ryan, USA TODAY



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