What to Expect: Indiana at Nebraska

Indiana’s first road game tips off Friday night in Lincoln against Nebraska at Pinnacle Bank Arena. The Huskers are 6-2 and are coming off an 89-52 loss at Michigan State.

Friday’s game is an 8 p.m. ET tip on FOX:

Indiana’s struggles against last season are well documented. The Hoosiers lost three times to the Huskers and none of the games were competitive. Nebraska won 86-70 in Lincoln on January 3, 85-70 in Bloomington on February 21 and 93-66 at the Big Ten tournament on March 16. That’s an average margin of 18.

Both teams underwent roster makeovers in the offseason. Still, Fred Hoiberg’s ability to spread Indiana out and score an average of 88 points in three easy wins was a major reason the Hoosiers didn’t sniff the NCAA tournament a season ago.

The Hoosiers have won four straight games (all by 15 or more points), but a win Friday would be a surefire signal the Hoosiers are trending in the right direction after a shaky performance last month in the Bahamas.

MEET THE HUSKERS

After reaching the NCAA tournament for the first time under Hoiberg last March, the Huskers are in a transition period in his sixth season. Keisei Tominaga graduated, Rienk Mast is out for the season with a knee injury and the offense has taken a significant step back statistically.

According to KenPom.com, Nebraska had the nation’s 32nd-best offense last season but is currently ranked 99th this season after eight games.

Three Huskers are averaging double figures – seniors Brice Williams, Juwan Gary and junior Connor Essegian.

This wing-heavy offensive attack presents problems for an Indiana rotation featuring a frontcourt that doesn’t guard well away from the paint (Oumar Ballo and Malik Reneau) and struggles to guard movement and execute switches (Mackenzie Mgbako).

Williams is a 6-foot-7 fifth-year wing who is excellent at getting to the line and converts at an elite rate. He leads the Huskers with 17.5 points per game and shoots 92.5 percent (53 attempts) from the line. He’s also a capable 3-point shooter and has connected on 11 of his 29 attempts from deep.

The 6-foot-6 Gary, another fifth-year player, is an undersized four averaging 10.6 points and 4.4 rebounds in 25 minutes per game. Gary is just 7-for-27 on 3s (25.9 percent).

Essegian, an Indiana native, was one of the Big Ten’s best freshmen two seasons ago at Wisconsin. After falling out of the regular rotation in Madison last season, Essegian entered the transfer portal and landed in Lincoln where he’s returned to form in his third season. Essegian is Nebraska’s second-leading scorer at 13 points per game. He’s made a team-high 20 3-pointers and is shooting 42.6 percent from the perimeter.

Utah transfer Rollie Worster has taken over the starting point guard spot for the Huskers. Another fifth-year player, the 6-foot-5 Worster is averaging a team-high 2.6 assists and is second on the team with 1.5 steals per game.

Ahron Ulis, who sat out last season following a gambling probe and Sam Hoiberg provide most of the backup minutes in the backcourt. The 6-foot-3 Ulis is just 2-for-13 on 3s and is shooting 33 percent from the field. Hoiberg is an energy player who is fearless in attacking offensively and is a major pest defensively. His 1.8 steals per game lead the Huskers.

On the wing, Rutgers transfer Gavin Griffiths hasn’t made a 3-pointer since Nov. 13 and is 3-for-19 from distance on the season. The 6-foot-7 sophomore was considered one of the best shooters in the country coming out of high school.

With Mast sitting out this season, Hoiberg has pieced together a frontcourt that includes three transfers: Braxton Meah, Andrew Morgan and Berke Buyuktuncel.

Meah, who previously played at Fresno State and Washington, provides the Huskers with legitimate size in the post at 7-foot-1 and 264 pounds. He’s averaging 3.7 points and four rebounds in 15 minutes per game.

Morgan is a 6-foot-10, 245-pound arrival from North Dakota State who is the team’s second-leading rebounder. Morgan pulls down 5.3 rebounds in 17 minutes per game off the bench while averaging 8.4 points on 45 percent shooting.

Buyuktuncel transferred from UCLA and started the first six games for Nebraska. He’s the leading rebounder at 5.9 per game, is making 75 percent of his 2s and has a team-best six blocked shots.

TEMPO-FREE PREVIEW

Both teams are playing with pace, with Nebraska ranking 88th in adjusted tempo, per KenPom.com and Indiana at 39th.

The Huskers, however, are handling the ball much better than the Hoosiers and forcing more turnovers. Through 10 games, Indiana has committed 140 turnovers and forced just 121, while Nebraska has committed 90 and forced 130.

The free-throw line will also be key for both programs. The Huskers excel at drawing fouls and then converting at the line. Nebraska’s free-throw percentage of 76.6 ranks 51st in the country and 30th in free-throw rate (FTA/FGA).

While 3-point shooting was Nebraska’s primary strength offensively last season, that isn’t the case this season. The Huskers are taking fewer 3s – their 3PA/FGA is 38.2 percent this season versus 44.3 percent last season. Nebraska shot 35.7 percent from deep last season and is just 29.8 percent this season from deep.

WHAT IT COMES DOWN TO

The KenPom projection is Nebraska by one, with a 47 percent chance of an IU victory. Bart Torvik’s ratings favor the Huskers by two, with a 43 percent chance of a Hoosier victory.

Indiana played one of its best games this season against Minnesota on Monday but still struggled for stretches in the second half.

The Hoosiers will have to take care of the ball and limit Nebraska’s free throw attempts to prevail in what should be a hostile environment in Lincoln. Nebraska has one of the better home-court advantages in the league and has dominated Indiana recently.

The Huskers will also be looking to rebound from an embarrassing 37-point beatdown in East Lansing and avoid an 0-2 start in Big Ten play. For Indiana, the road trip marks an opportunity to grab a fifth-straight win and establish clear momentum heading into the two final non-conference games in Bloomington later this month.

Filed to: Nebraska Cornhuskers