The Day After: Predictions Revisited From Indiana’s 31-7 Victory Over Florida International

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – Each week at Hoosiers On SI we make a score prediction on the Indiana football game and suggest three keys to the game.

Since this was my first go-around with the prediction and three keys – hi, I’m Todd Golden, the new guy at Hoosiers On SI – I thought it would be fun to revisit this after the game to see how well I did. Or how poorly. Or whether the truth is somewhere in-between.

Indiana won 31-7 over Florida International on Saturday at Memorial Stadium in a game that deviated very little from what was expected.

The ease of victory was considerable, but will the devils in those details serve up a tasty plate of satisfaction? Or a big plate of humble pie? Read on and find out.

Let’s start with the predicted three keys:

1. Protect Kurtis Rourke

Statistically, it seems that Indiana was passable in this department. FIU sacked Rourke twice, and the Panthers were credited with two quarterback hurries. Rourke dropped back to pass 24 times, so while that ratio isn’t perfect, it’s also not a major concern.

Anecdotally, it seemed like Rourke was under a bit of pressure at times, but are looks deceiving?

In its grades of the game, Pro Football Focus said Rourke was under pressure on 27.6% of his passing plays and that he was pressured eight times overall. Not constant pressure by any means, but enough to rush a few throws.

PFF.com also noted that Rourke was never hit as he threw and that of the six quarterback pressures it counted? Three came from right tackle Trey Wedig’s side of the field.

Given all of that, you’d have to say Indiana succeeded while also wondering what protection will be like against a more formidable opponent.

2. Shut down FIU’s run game

This was an unequivocal success for the Indiana defense.

FIU gained just 53 rushing yards and averaged a paltry 1.8 yards per carry. In the third quarter? FIU’s rushing total was minus-6 yards.

In college football, quarterback sacks count in the rushing total, and that can often skew the rushing stats. But even if you take out the 24 yards FIU quarterback Keyone Jenkins lost in sacks, the Panthers were still well below 100 team rushing yards.

As I wrote, this made FIU predictable. Jenkins, to his credit, completed 20 of 29 passes for 129 yards. But with the run game stopped, Indiana piled on the pressure and constantly had Jenkins on the run.

3. Be patient, because FIU might wear down

This never really came into play given that the Hoosiers were in control by the final period.

As we wrote in the three keys story, one of the things that stood out for FIU in 2023 was its fourth quarter scoring plunge. The Panthers scored just 25 points in the fourth quarter in 12 games last season.

Indiana kept FIU off the scoreboard in the second half, although the Panthers did have 75 total yards in the final period. Reserves were on the field for part of the quarter, so this key never really achieved relevance.

Score prediction

On Friday, I wrote this:

“I don’t think it’s going to be a coronation for Indiana, but I also don’t think it’s going to be a nail-biter either. Indiana has too much talent to burn, especially on the offensive side of the ball. The anticipation level is always high for the first game, but it will be more so as the lid-lifter on the Cignetti era.

With so many players on the roster who have proven they can win? I think those 13 James Madison transfers will show the way in an exciting, but measured, style of play.”

Just call me Nostradamus. Had the tenor of the game just right. Those JMU transfers were indeed impactful, especially on the defensive side.

The soothsaying was going well – until “Nostradamus” got carried away peering too far into my crystal ball.

“Indiana also has the playmakers to press FIU into turnovers. I think the Hoosiers force at least three on Saturday.”

Indiana forced one, an Amare Ferrell interception off of a tipped pass by D’Angelo Ponds. In fact, Indiana was fortunate that neither of the fumbles Rourke lost flipped the turnover margin in FIU’s favor.

As for the score? I predicted a 41-21 win for Indiana. I was close on the margin, but I over-estimated Indiana’s offense (and FIU’s for that matter) and under-estimated Indiana’s defense.

We’ll give it all another go next week.