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Knicks vs. Pacers: Our betting advice on spread, total & moneyline for Saturday

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Knicks vs. Pacers: Our betting advice on spread, total & moneyline for Saturday


The New York Knicks (33-19, 2nd in Atlantic) wrap up their five game homestand as they welcome in the Indiana Pacers (29-24, 3rd in Central) on Saturday night at Madison Square Garden.

New York suffered its second defeat in three games as three starters — Jalen Brunson, Julius Randle and OG Anunoby — all missed the team’s 122-108 loss versus the Dallas Mavericks.

To add insult to injury, Isaiah Hartenstein, who’s starting for an injured Mitchell Robinson, left Thursday’s game early due to a sore left Achilles.

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The Pacers are coming off of a 131-109 loss against the Golden State Warriors, where two-time MVP Stephen Curry scored 29 points in the first half versus Indiana, and finished with 42 points and 11 three-pointers.

These two teams met not long ago when the Knicks took care of business in a 109-105 victory on Feb. 1 at MSG.

Can the short-handed Knicks get back on track against the Pacers? Here’s my betting breakdown for this Eastern Conference matchup.

More: Here are three Super Bowl 2024 special bets you can wager on for Chiefs vs 49ers

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NY Knicks vs. Pacers spread: Advantage Pacers

After covering in seven straight games, the Knicks are now 0-3 against the spread (ATS) since their nine-game winning streak came to an end.

The Pacers have not been much better, going 4-5-1 ATS over their last 10 contests, but importantly have failed to cover in five of their previous seven matchups.

With New York likely down multiple starters, take Indiana to cover in this one.

They’re 4-2 ATS when they’ve been a road favorite this season and are 13-9-2 in the following game after a loss.

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Even though this line hasn’t come out yet, I expect the Pacers to be between a three-to-five point favorite and that’s comfortable enough for me to advise taking them to cover on Saturday night.

Prediction: Pacers cover the spread

NY Knicks vs. Pacers total: Bet the over

If both these teams were at full strength, this would’ve been a must-watch matchup as you have the best offenses (Pacers) against a top three scoring defense in the Knicks.

Indiana averages nearly 124 points per game (PPG) this season and ranks top-10 in field goal percentage made (46.6 percent), three-point percentage (37.8 percent) and three-pointers made per game (13.6 per contest).

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Thanks to a 28th-ranked scoring defense, the Pacers excel at going over this year.

The problem for the over hitting an expected high line is not on Indiana due to a high-powered offense and an inadequate defense.

The way this game hits the implied over is if New York’s offense, down multiple top options, can still take advantage here.

That being said, even with the Knicks expected to be missing at least 60 percent of their starting five, I believe they’ll put enough points up on the board for the total to be the right play in this matchup.

Prediction: Bet the over

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NY Knicks vs. Pacers moneyline: Pacers

Down their top players, New York failed to keep up last time out on their home court against the Mavericks.

Donte Divincenzo has stepped up in a big way with the absences of Brunson, Anunoby and more.

The former first round pick is averaging 28.5 PPG in February and scored 30+ in three of his last five games.

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In fact, Divincenzo put up a season-high 38 points against these Pacers back on Dec. 30 in Indiana.

The good news is the Knicks, who were one of the most active teams at the NBA trade deadline, should have recently acquired Alec Burks and Bojan Bogdanovic in the lineup after trading for the duo Thursday afternoon.

I do believe New York can keep it close versus this struggling Pacers defense. However, after Thursday’s performance and potential chemistry concerns following two new players having to play a majority of the minutes, I think the Knicks will lose three out of four games for the first time since the New Year.

Bet the Pacers on the moneyline when the odds are available.

Prediction: Pacers 119, Knicks 113

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Indiana

Indiana Fever Drop To 0-3 With Loss to Liberty

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Indiana Fever Drop To 0-3 With Loss to Liberty


NEW YORK–The Indiana Fever dropped to 0-3 on the season with a 91-80 loss to the 2023 WNBA runner up New York Liberty on Saturday afternoon.

Fever guard and #1 overall pick Caitlin Clark scored 22 points, grabbed 8 rebounds, and dished out 8 assists in the defeat. She also had 8 turnovers.

The Liberty had five double figure scorers and were led by Breanna Stewart with 24 points.

Even though the Fever lost the game, they did outscore the Liberty in the second half 43-34.

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The Fever’s next game is against the 2-0 Connecticut Sun on Monday night at 7 pm.

1. Caitlin Clark Finished With 22 Points

Indiana Fever v New York Liberty

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2. Kelsey Mitchell defended by Leonie Fiebich

BASKET-WNBA-FEVER-LIBERTY

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3. Caitlin Clark and Aliyah Boston Try to Get a Bucket

BASKET-WNBA-FEVER-LIBERTY

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NY Liberty vs. Indiana Fever preview: Home Opener!

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NY Liberty vs. Indiana Fever preview: Home Opener!


That’s a good bit of business. The New York Liberty were the guests for the Indiana Fever’s much anticipated home opener on Thursday evening. The Liberty were unhospitable as they went wire-to-wire and won by 36 points. They are now 2-0 on the WNBA season.

Where to follow the game

ABC is the place to be. Brunch and basketball so we getting started at 1 PM.

Injuries

All clear for both teams.

The game

Sometimes, a box score tells you everything you need to know. And in Betnijah Laney-Hamilton’s case, that +43 in the box score lets you know how awesome she was on Thursday. Bee had the primary assignment on Caitlin Clark and shut the future All Star down. Clark couldn’t find her rhythm and only went 2-8 from the field and put up a 9/7/6 line. It was a total team effort and we got to see the chemistry and continuity of this experienced Liberty squad

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For Clark, it’s a matter of continuing to adapt to the physicality of the W and the craftiness/intelligence of the defenders that are assigned to her. For the Liberty, they’ll continue to throw different looks at Clark and bump her off of her spot as much as possible. Look for Laney-Hamilton, Kayla Thornton, and a sea of seafoam to chase Clark around. For all the criticism the Liberty perimeter defense gets, they were still a terrific defensive team and communicate incredibly well with one another.

We’ve got a basketball doubleheader this weekend! The Liberty and Fever complete their two game mini-series, and tomorrow, a full series will end. Over at MSG, the Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks will do battle in game seven of the Eastern Conference semifinals. Basketball in NY is undefeated and hoops fans of all stripes will be well fed today and tomorrow.

Going into Thursday’s game, I was thinking Breanna Stewart needed some time to shake off some rust from not playing overseas and having a longer (but well deserved!) break from basketball. Shows what I know. Stew York looked like her MVP self on Thursday night and cooked the Fever to the tune of 31/10/4/3/2 in only 29 minutes. What helped Stewart immensely was her getting the majority of her shots by the rim and on the move. The Liberty are such a tremendously disciplined team and everyone on the court knows how to create the best shot possible for their teammate.

Paint touches are always what you want. You’re closer to the rim and have a higher chance of drawing fouls as compared to being out on the perimeter. It’s been an early point of emphasis for Sabrina Ionescu, and it’s been paying off for her. Sab went 3-3 from the restricted area and if she’s able to continue getting to the rim like this, she can become an even better offensive player. And in case you thought she was short,

That’s right!

Player to watch: Aliyah Boston

Me personally, I love when there’s a little animosity on the hardwood! The games are intense and everyone’s doing their best to win. And when you’ve got people at the top of their profession trying to win, it’s gonna get chippy every so often. We saw that on Thursday night as Boston and Jonquel Jones got into a little back-and-forth in the first quarter:

Sometimes you gotta let em know! For Boston, she’s looking to put her first good game of the season after rough outings on Thursday and against the Connecticut Sun. For the Fever to be what they need to be, they’re going to need a LOT more from their star center.

JJ only went 4-11 from the field, but she proved to be a force on both sides of the ball. She picked up three blocks, grabbed ten rebounds, and made life hell on every Fever big that suited up. You need that interior presence to really go places and if opponents can’t have any luck at the basket with JJ patrolling the paint, it gives everyone else on the team more room to exert their wills on defense. With Jones back looking better than ever, it makes a great Liberty team just a touch greater.

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From the Vault

Home openers are always a good time, and last year at the ‘clays was no exception.

More reading: Indiana Fever Blog, Swish Appeal, The Strickland, The Local W, New York Daily News, New York Post, The Athletic. Fansided, Just Women’s Sports, SI All Knicks, Winsidr, Her Hoop Stats, CBS Sports, and The Next





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Knicks-Pacers: 5 takeaways from Indiana’s staunch Game 6 stand

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Knicks-Pacers: 5 takeaways from Indiana’s staunch Game 6 stand


In an emphatic Game 6 win, Pascal Siakam showed exactly why Indiana traded for him.

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We haven’t had a Game 7 at Madison Square Garden since 1995.

The winner of that game was the Indiana Pacers, with Patrick Ewing missing a game-tying finger roll at the buzzer. And it was the Pacers who forced another Game 7 at MSG with a 116-103 victory over the New York Knicks in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference semifinals on Friday.

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Indiana took control with a 17-2 run late in the second quarter, dominated the paint, and rebounded well enough to improve to 6-0 at home in these playoffs. They were the more desperate team and they played like it, continuing to play fast on offense and showing a lot more toughness on defense than they displayed in Game 5.

Here are some notes, quotes, numbers and film as the Pacers improved to 6-0 at home in the playoffs and booked another trip back to New York for Game 7 on Sunday afternoon (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC) …


1. Pacers dominate the paint and the glass

The Pacers had outscored the Knicks by 40 points in the paint over the first four games of this series, but the Game 5 score in the paint was 62-36 in favor of the Knicks, with New York also obtaining an incredible 50% of available offensive rebounds.

The script was flipped in Game 6, when the Pacers were a plus-24 (62-38) in the paint, the Knicks’ worst differential of the season (94 total games). Some of that was the Pacers pushing in transition, moving the ball and consistently looking to attack.

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Some of it was their defense. The Knicks’ 18-for-41 (43.9%) shooting in the paint was their fourth-worst mark of the season (94 total games). Indiana blocked eight of those shots, with Isaiah Jackson recording three blocks in less than 12 minutes off the bench.

Of course, defensive possessions, especially when you’re playing the Knicks, aren’t done until a rebound has been secured. The Pacers were much better on the defensive glass, with New York’s offensive rebounding percentage of 32.0% being its third-lowest mark of the postseason. (The Knicks are 6-0 when they’ve grabbed more than 34% of available offensive boards.)

The Pacers, meanwhile, had more offensive rebounds (14) than the Knicks (13). Jackson had just one of those 14, but drew two loose-ball fouls on the offensive glass on a single possession early in the fourth quarter.

“It was just activity,” Pacers coach Rick Carlisle said of his team’s interior success on Friday. “We played harder tonight, which was a must.”


2. Knicks play small, Siakam plays big

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The Knicks changed their starting lineup in Game 5, replacing Precious Achiuwa with Miles McBride. It gave New York more spacing around Jalen Brunson.

But it also made the Knicks smaller up front. Pascal Siakam took advantage of that change, playing big and scoring a team-high 25 points, with 17 of those coming in the paint (14) or at the free throw line.

Early in the first quarter, Siakam got a layup after a Knicks bucket on the other end of the floor. Tyrese Haliburton got the ball up the floor quickly and Siakam got behind Josh Hart, who had his eyes on the ball …

Pascal Siakam layup

Later in the first, Siakam established early post position against McBride and drew a foul. A few possessions later, he drew another by taking Donte DiVincenzo under the basket.

In the second quarter, Siakam really went to work against Hart by posting him up …

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Pascal Siakam post-up basket vs. Josh Hart

He got two more post-up scores against Hart after that. Then he had another matchup against McBride and, when the Knicks brought two extra defenders, Siakam found Myles Turner for a dunk …

Pascal Siakam assist to Myles Turner

The Knicks didn’t go back to their big lineup for the second half, but they put Isaiah Hartenstein (or Achiuwa) on Siakam, with Hart guarding Turner (or Jackson). But in the fourth quarter, with the Knicks’ bigs focused on rim protection, Siakam was twice able to find space to shoot in-rhythm jumpers after setting a ball screen.


3. Hart gets hurt

Prior to Game 6, Hart had averaged an incredible 43.7 minutes, what would be the highest mark for any player who played at least 10 games in the last 11 postseasons. And he had played all 48 (or all 53) minutes in four of the 11 games.

But on Friday, Hart asked to be subbed out midway through both the first and third quarters. He seemingly suffered an abdominal injury early on and was clearly in discomfort the rest of the night. He still played almost 31 minutes, but shot just 2-for-8 and (as noted above) had a tough time defending Siakam.

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The Knicks are already without Julius Randle, Mitchell Robinson, Bojan Bogdanovic and OG Anunoby. And with Hart now dealing with something, they have the shortest of turnarounds between Games 6 and 7. The last time they played in the afternoon less than 48 hours after a night game was Game 4, which they lost by 32.

Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau didn’t have an update on Hart after Game 6. Nor did he have much of an answer when asked about the possibility of Anunoby (hamstring strain) returning from a four-game absence to play in Game 7.

The Knicks are now 14-17 without Anunoby since his acquisition. In this series, they’ve been outscored by 28 points (19 per 100 possessions) in 79 total minutes with their other four starters on the floor without him, allowing the Pacers to score an uber-efficient 131.3 points per 100 possessions.


4. Tale of two halves for Brunson

There was some hope for the Knicks at halftime despite being down 10. First of all, they had trailed in eight of their previous 11 playoff games by double-digits and won five of those eight.

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Secondly, they were down only 10 even though Brunson had shot 2-for-13 from the field and 1-for-4 from the free throw line. If he got going in the second half, they certainly had a shot.

And Brunson did get going in the second half, scoring 26 points (on 9-for-13 shooting) in less than 19 minutes. But it wasn’t enough.

Overall, the Pacers defended the Knicks’ star better than they did in Game 5. Aaron Nesmith was the primary defender again and did a good job of navigating screens. Haliburton was stronger with his hedges when his man set those screens. And the Pacers also had a couple of timely double-teams after Brunson burrowed his way into the paint …

Jalen Brunson double-team

But in the second half, Brunson was also able to take advantage of the Pacers’ pressure, both in the backcourt (breaking the press and driving for a layup) and in the frontcourt (cutting back door for another layup). He found a rhythm and then he started cooking.

Ultimately, Brunson’s second-half scoring didn’t mean much. And there hasn’t been much carry-over from game to game in this series. But he has shot much better in the three games at home (54%) than he has in Indiana (39%).

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5. The difference is inside the Knicks’ offense

Brunson’s second-half scoring didn’t mean much because the Pacers scored 52 points on 34 second-half possessions (1.53 per) before Thibodeau initiated garbage time (by taking Brunson out) with a little less than four minutes left in the fourth quarter.

Game 5, when they held the postseason’s No. 1 offense under a point per possessions, was the Knicks’ best defensive game of the playoffs. But their defense didn’t travel and Game 6 was one of their worst.

Still, the bigger difference between New York wins and Indiana wins in this series has been on the the Knicks’ end of the floor …

Knicks and Pacers’ efficiency, conf. semis

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Games NYK OffRtg IND OffRtg
New York wins 131.0 116.7
Indiana wins 107.6 125.2
Diff. 23.4 -8.5

OffRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions

That’s more about their shooting in the paint (60.3% vs. 46.5%) than their shooting from the outside (effective field goal percentage of 56.9% vs. 50.0%). The Pacers were tougher defensively in Game 6 and may need to be even better at Madison Square Garden on Sunday afternoon.

* * *

John Schuhmann is a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on X. 

The views on this page do not necessarily reflect the views of the NBA, its clubs or Warner Bros. Discovery.

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