Indiana
Indiana vs. Penn State prediction: Odds, picks, best bet for Saturday’s Big Ten matchup
Saturday’s tilt between Penn State and Indiana in Happy Valley features the No. 2 team in the country trying to stay undefeated.
That team is a 14.5-point favorite against an underdog doing its best to play the role of spoiler.
If you’re just joining us, you may be surprised to learn that the two-score favorite in this game is actually Indiana, and it’s Penn State, which was ranked No. 2 in the AP’s preseason poll, that is relegated to spoiler.
We’re living in crazy times.
Indiana vs. Penn State odds, prediction
The Indiana Hoosiers are not your typical Cinderella.
This is the second year in a row that Indiana can claim to be one of the best teams in the country, and everything the Hoosiers have accomplished is backed up by a ridiculous statistical profile.
Indiana grades out as the nation’s best offense, per SP+, and ranks eighth in yards per play.
The Hoosiers have a star quarterback in Fernando Mendoza, but they’re far from one-dimensional. In fact, only eight teams run the ball more than Indiana this season. The effectiveness of Indiana’s rushing attack has allowed Mendoza to flourish under Curt Cignetti.
Indiana’s offense is good enough to win games on its own, but it is backed up by one of the stingiest defenses in the country.
According to SP+, only Ohio State has been better without the ball than the Hoosiers.
It’s no wonder that only one team (Iowa) has kept the Hoosiers to a single-digit margin of victory this season.
It’s hard to see Penn State joining that list.
While the Nittany Lions are still talented and should be motivated to win the biggest game left on their schedule at home, things have continued to trend in the wrong direction for Penn State.
Betting on College Football?
The Nittany Lions only mustered 14 points — all of which came in one quarter — against Ohio State, proving that the offense is rudderless without Drew Allar.
The defense grades out as No. 25 in the country per SP+, which is good, but you need to be better than that to slow down Indiana, especially when your offense can’t be relied upon to keep you fresh.
The numbers back up a bet on Indiana in this spot. The Hoosiers have proven, time and again, that they are one of the best teams in the country on both sides of the ball.
If you’re betting on Penn State, you’re just leaning into the narrative that this is their Super Bowl.
Didn’t we just try that angle last week at Ohio State?
The Play: Indiana -14.5 (-110, FanDuel)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
Fernando Mendoza did not attend Indiana University’s visit to the White House commemorating the Hoosiers’ college football national championship on Monday. The Las Vegas Raiders quarterback said earlier this month that he would not attend if it interfered with any activities with his new team.
“I’m on the bottom of the totem pole here,” Mendoza said following a rookie minicamp practice. “I got to prove myself. I can’t miss practice. I don’t know anything official. I don’t have the calendar, but I just wouldn’t. As a rookie, I don’t think that’s a good look, and I want to try to best serve my teammates. And I don’t know if that’d be accomplishing that goal.”
According to the team’s official offseason schedule, the Raiders did not have any formal practices or workouts on Monday. The team’s next organized activity is May 18, its first OTA workout.
“Fernando couldn’t be here today because, as I said, he’s now a member of the Las Vegas Raiders,” President Donald Trump said in his address. “Let’s see how good of a team they have, and I think he’s gonna do great. He’s a winner.”
Mendoza wasn’t the only absence. Center Pat Coogan and cornerback D’Angelo Ponds were among the other Hoosiers not in attendance for the event due to NFL obligations. Indiana had a program-record eight players selected in April’s NFL Draft.
Trump highlighted Mendoza’s accomplishments and contributions to the school’s first football national title. He celebrated Mendoza as Indiana’s inaugural Heisman Trophy winner and praised his fourth-quarter touchdown run in the championship game against Miami.
“He’s gonna be a good one,” Trump said.
Indiana was well-represented by returning members of the team. Charlie Becker, one of Mendoza’s go-to receivers during the College Football Playoffs, and Jamari Sharpe, whose late interception secured the title-game victory, both spoke on behalf of the school, as did head coach Curt Cignetti.
Mendoza is one of four members of the national champion Hoosiers who joined the Raiders this offseason. Running back Roman Hemby and wide receiver E.J. Williams Jr. signed as undrafted free agents in the days following the draft. Wide receiver Jonathan Brady earned a contract after impressing as a tryout player during rookie minicamp.
MUNCIE, Ind. (WISH) — Police are investigating a triple shooting that took place on Muncie’s south side Sunday evening that left a woman dead and two men injured.
According to police, at approximately 5:27 p.m., Muncie Police Officers were dispatched to the 2700 block of South Walnut Street in reference to reports of several people being shot.
Officers arrived and located three gunshot victims: A 23-year-old female who died from “multiple wounds,” a 39-year-old male who is hospitalized in stable condition, and a 40-year-old male who was airlifted to an Indianapolis hospital in critical condition.
Police say a suspect is in custody, a 21-year-old man.
Police did not provide any additional information.
Anyone with information is encouraged to call the Muncie Police Detective Division at 765-747-4867 or dispatch at 765-747-4838.
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Sports Seriously
The Indiana Pacers lost 63 games this season for a chance at a franchise-changing lottery pick. On Sunday, May 10, they lost that chance, too.
All Pacers president Kevin Pritchard could do was apologize for taking the risk.
Indiana’s pick landed at No. 5 in the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery, one spot outside the top four protections attached to a midseason trade. The selection now belongs to the Los Angeles Clippers .
Shortly after the results were announced, Pritchard took social media and apologized.
“I’m really sorry to all our fans,” Pritchard wrote. “I own taking this risk. Surprised it came up 5th after this year. I thought we were due some luck.”
The Pacers entered the lottery with a 52.1% chance of securing a top-four pick after finishing 19-63, the second-worst record in the NBA. It wasn’t enough.
Indiana sent Bennedict Mathurin, Isaiah Jackson, a 2028 second-round pick and a 2029 first-round pick to Los Angeles in the midseason deal for Ivica Zubac and Kobe Brown, along with the conditional 2026 first-rounder. The pick was theirs to keep only if it landed in the top four.
Zubac appeared in just five games for Indiana after the trade because of a fractured rib.
“This team deserved a starting center to compete with the best teams next year,” Pritchard wrote. “We have always been resillient.”
Pritchard will have to be resilient if he looks at the replies to his statement. About half of the Pacers fans’ comments were not happy, and fans of other teams called him out for “tanking.”
There were also a large number of fans who were supportive of Pritchard taking that risk.
Tyrese Haliburton is expected to return next season after tearing his Achilles in last year’s NBA Finals. The Pacers will have him Pascal Siakam and a roster they think is built to compete. They just won’t have that first-round pick to add to it.
The 2026 NBA Draft begins June 23 in Brooklyn.
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