Indiana vs. Oregon predictions, picks and best bets for college football Week 7: Ducks favored at home in matchup of unbeatens

On Saturday, the Indiana Hoosiers (5-0, 2-0 in Big Ten) and Oregon Ducks (5-0, 2-0 in Big Ten), two of the best teams in college football, will fight for a chance to all but lock in both a Big Ten Championship Game appearance and a College Football Playoff berth.

The stakes could hardly be higher, especially for a matchup this early in the regular season.

The Hoosiers enter Autzen Stadium as a 7.5-point road dog against Oregon, while the over/under (55.5 points) indicates a high-scoring matchup.

Keep reading below for our Indiana vs. Oregon predictions, picks, and best bets breakdown for this blockbuster Big Ten bout in Week 7.

Indiana vs. Oregon Predictions and best bets

• Indiana Hoosiers +7.5: -115 at BetMGM
• Under 55.5 points: -115 at FanDuel

*Note: Odds are based on the best value our experts find as of publication; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.

Indiana Hoosiers +7.5

Teams that have had the most success against the Hoosiers during the coach Curt Cignetti era had elite defensive lines, elite pass-rushing talent, or both.

Oregon doesn’t have either one.

The Ducks have the 63rd-highest pass rush grade (PFF) and rank 53rd in pressure rate and 79th in blitz rate.

When Fernando Mendoza can sit in the pocket and go through his progressions, he is one of the best quarterbacks in the country. His arm talent is pro-level.

And Indiana’s last two opponents, Iowa and Illinois, are two of the better pass-rushing teams not only in the Big Ten, but also in the nation.

Mendoza and company have had enough experience in picking up blitzes and getting the ball out quickly to score on this Ducks defense.

I like Oregon to win this game, as it has won 41 of its last 42 games at Autzen. However, the Hoosiers have enough talent on both sides of the ball to keep this one close.

Under 55.5 points

Many people expect this game to be a shootout, as evidenced by the 55.5-point over/under line.

However, I believe that each of these two defenses will complicate matters for their opponent, resulting in a lower-scoring game.

Indiana held its two toughest opponents, Illinois and Iowa, to 10 and 15 points. The Hoosiers rank third in opponent points per game and sixth in opponent total yards per game.

Oregon also has a tough defense, especially when it’s at Autzen. The Ducks rank first nationally in opponent points per game this season at home.

Scoring will be hard to come by for both teams on Saturday.

Indiana vs. Oregon moneyline odds analysis

Why Oregon could win as the favorite

Best odds: -270 at FanDuel

The Oregon Ducks are undoubtedly one of the best teams in college football. For every metric in which Indiana ranks high, the Ducks seem to rank higher.

Oregon is led by Heisman Trophy frontrunner Dante Moore, who patiently waited his turn last season behind former Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel, and has taken clear advantage of that time.

Moore is behind the best pass-blocking unit (first in pass block grade, per PFF) and has a plethora of talent at the skill positions, including true freshman sensation Dakorien Moore, wide receiver Malik Benson, tight end Kenyon Sadiq, and a seemingly never-ending running back room.

While Oregon’s road win over now-unranked Penn State looks less impressive on the surface, I believe it was less about Penn State’s talent level and more about the fact that the Ducks broke the Nittany Lions’ spirit.

This is a national title-contending team, and it doesn’t lose at Autzen.

Why Indiana could win as the underdog

Best odds: +245 at DraftKings

At the moment, the Hoosiers have the highest overall grade (PFF) in the country and rank fourth in ESPN’s FPI, fourth in ESPN’s overall net efficiency rating, third in opponent points per game, seventh in points per game, and third in ESPN’s SP+.

Indiana already has a road win against a tough Iowa team that is finally having some success in the passing game and an atomic bomb-level blowout at home versus then-No. 9 Illinois.

The Hoosiers have one of the most efficient and effective offenses in the country, led by Heisman candidate Fernando Mendoza and supported by skill position players, such as Omar Cooper Jr, Elijah Sarratt, Roman Hemby, Kaelon Black, and EJ Williams Jr.

Indiana’s offensive line has improved year over year, and its defensive line has picked up where it left off last season.

The Hoosiers have held their past three opponents (Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana State) to the third-fewest rushing yards per game on the sixth-fewest yards per rush attempt in the country.

Simply put, this Hoosiers team is the real deal, and its No. 7 ranking in the AP Poll does not do them justice.