Inconsistent Play Driving Poor Start For Indiana Pacers

CHICAGO — The Indiana Pacers took on the Chicago Bulls last Friday, and the Pacers mood as a group was largely positive before the game. Players were focused on their upcoming task at hand after a lengthy morning shootaround session. They took a hard look at their offense, spacing, and movement in an attempt to figure out what they needed to do to recapture their offensive potency. Players were light and jovial about one hour before tipoff.

That night, the Pacers scored 132 points and earned their first win without clutch time all season. They made 18 three-point shots and kept the Bulls away. It was the team’s third-highest scoring game this season, and Indiana earned a much-needed win on the same day that they focused on re-establishing their offensive identity.

Two days later, that same Pacers team was at home hosting the lowly and banged-up Charlotte Hornets. Head coach Rick Carlisle shared before the game that his team went through all of their offensive keys again before the action, just like they did in Chicago. Indiana had a chance to win two-straight games before having four days off to practice, and the group had a similar pregame vibe.

Yet the results were different that night. The Pacers scored just 109 points in a loss against the shorthanded Hornets, dropping the team’s record to 10-15. They weren’t able to keep rolling offensively, and that inconsistency had defined this Pacers campaign.

“We’re struggling in the margins of the game,” Carlisle said after his team lost in Charlotte. “Put two hands on the ball. Avoiding avoidable turnovers. Simple things within our defensive system that we control, we’re not doing a good enough job on those. We’ve got to, probably, communicate a lot better.”

Why have the Indiana Pacers been inconsistent?

Indiana has been all over the place. In a way, they are similar to last year — their best level is extremely high, yet their lowest performances look like one of the worst teams in the league. The Pacers have beaten Boston, Dallas, New York, Miami, and Orlando this season. That’s three of the Eastern Conference’s top-four teams, missing only a Cleveland group that the Pacers haven’t played yet. The Mavericks were in the NBA Finals last season. At their best, the blue and gold can hang with, and beat, contenders.

At their worst, they can’t beat anyone. Charlotte (twice), New Orleans, Philadelphia, Toronto (twice), and Brooklyn have already taken down the Pacers this season. Picking up those games was supposed to be Indiana’s way of improving from last year. Instead, they are inconsistent and have a lower ceiling. They have rarely strung together good play, even within one game.

“We’re human. When bad things happen, people are gonna hold their head down. Energy shifts. When we’re cooking, when we’re up, when we’re making shots. Of course our vibe is gonna be there,” Pacers forward Jarace Walker said the night his team lost to Charlotte in Indy. “We’ve just got to figure out how to keep that even keel, that level head when things do go south. So I feel like that’s where we’re struggling right now, and we’ll figure it out eventually.”

Two days ago, after several days off and multiple practices, the Pacers went to Philly and stomped the 76ers. It was another reminder of the team’s highest level — at their best they look like a postseason threat. The ball moved well, and Indiana’s defense found success all night. Games like that make their low points so confusing. They can have a night where they appear to one of the worst teams in the league right in the middle of stronger outings.

Indiana’s results display this information well, but so do their per-possession numbers. Per pbpstats, the Pacers are 14th in offensive efficiency at about 1.14 points per possession this season. Yet they have finished a game with an offensive rating over 120 eight times (7-1 in those games) and concluded action with an offensive rating under 110 nine times (0-9). 17 of the team’s 26 games fit into either extreme. They’ve been all over the place — last year, Indiana only had 14 games the entire season with a points per 100 possessions figure below 110. They’re on pace for 28 this season. The Pacers reached the 120 mark 45 times in 2023-24, yet they’re only tracking to hit 25 this season.

That’s a lot of numbers that all point to the same thing — the blue and gold have been inconsistent this season, and it’s largely due to their offense. On defense, the team is similarly poor compared to last season. In general, they have been slightly better on the less glamorous end of the floor. But with the rock, the Pacers were a machine last year. They hit a high peak in over half of their games. This year, they’ve fallen flat just as often as they had an easy night when it comes to scoring.

“It’s a good question. I feel like just focusing on the little things, really. Getting guys healthy, obviously not an excuse,” guard T.J. McConnell said of the team’s inconsistencies. He’s been one of the team’s steadiest performers. “But I think just focusing on the small details, especially on a defensive end. We just have to be better.”

The Pacers need to play better, as McConnell said. That’s obvious, reaching their peak more often would lead to more wins. But they may get equal, if not more, value by reducing the frequency of their poor outings. In general, that is what has felt different about the team this year compared to the most recent full campaign — they have far more outings where they look like they have no scoring capability, even against weak opponents.

What does it take to shake that kind of issue? It’s hard to say. If the Pacers knew why they were inconsistent, they would address it and not have these problems in the first place.

Some of it comes down to their many injuries, including a few that are likely season ending. Their pace hasn’t been as breathtaking compared to the rest of the NBA like it was last season. Tyrese Haliburton, the team’s star player, has been up and down — just like the team as a collective.

It’s hard to predict what version of the Pacers will show up, but less frequent peaks and more visible lows has the team at 11-15 with a tough stretch of opponents coming up. Some would argue that inconsistent is synonymous with bad when it comes to the quality of an NBA team, and that may be true in some cases. Indiana will hope they can prove that to be false and get back to the season they hoped to have.