Hoosiers’ last stand: Indiana football playing for its season Saturday vs. Rutgers

BLOOMINGTON – The opening question during Tom Allen’s weekly Thursday Zoom session echoed the mood music playing the Hoosiers into the most important game of their season to this point.

Rutgers comes to Bloomington for a noon kickoff on homecoming Saturday at 5-2, one win from bowl eligibility.

The Scarlet Knights took a crucial step toward the postseason when they erased a 24-6 deficit to defeat Michigan State at home last weekend on the back of some fourth-quarter theatrics. One more win would hand Rutgers its first bowl berth via regular-season record since 2014.

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Indiana’s fortunes would struggle to be further afield. The Hoosiers have lost four of their first six games, and their past two (at Maryland and at Michigan) by a combined score of 96-24. They have questions at quarterback, injuries in key areas and Penn State peering around the corner past this weekend.

On the other hand, a win this weekend would not just stabilize the schedule. It would leave a path open for the Hoosiers to reach bowl eligibility all the way into the final three weeks of the season. That’s when IU plays, in order, at Illinois, Michigan State and at Purdue, three of the four teams in sixth or seventh in their respective divisions at present.

“You’ve got to look at the big picture,” Allen said. “You’ve got to understand what your goals are, and the fact that they’re all still in front of you and still available to you is a great motivator.

“But,” Allen continued, “you can also get caught up in the discouragement of not having recent success these last couple weeks. You have to remind them of what we are, what we do have in front of us and to be able to focus on the daily process, the consistency of your preparation and the little things every day, to be able to create the change you’re looking for on game day.”

There’s a simpler way to say that, albeit one no coach can express with such frankness for a host of reasons: Indiana is playing for its season Saturday.

Win, and there’s still a course to making something of this fall.

Lose, and 2-7 by Illinois becomes not just possible but likely. Lose, and the job of asking for that focus and that persistence becomes exceptionally difficult. Lose, and the season starts to feel unrecoverable.

Allen wants leading by example — his, then his coaches’, then his captains’ — to be what pushes his team through this difficult spell, and on to something greater this season.

Rutgers will test that with a tough rushing attack, a tougher defense and an earned collective confidence for which Indiana is still searching. The Scarlet Knights can provide the platform from which Indiana, the fourth of those teams at the foot of the Big Ten East and West, begins to push its season back in the right direction. Or they can all but end it.

“You don’t doubt yourself,” Allen said. “You just stay the course. Is that hard to do? Absolutely. That’s why you have to spend so much time just individually addressing it. Man, you bring the energy, you bring the focus and you have the guys follow that lead.”

Indiana vs. Rutgers prediction

Rutgers should ride in on a wave of justified momentum, after last weekend’s comeback win. What the Scarlet Knights do, they commit to. They run the ball, they capitalize on more mistakes than they make and they chew clock. Only four Big Ten teams average greater time of possession.

One of those, coincidentally, is Indiana. The Hoosiers looked at least more effective for a half Saturday, before they got steamrolled after the break in Ann Arbor. This weekend will be a significant test of Rod Carey’s turnaround of an offense that still hasn’t scored more than one touchdown in meaningful regulation game time since the second half against Louisville a month ago.

Saturday could come down to which team can get on the board first, and control the clock with methodical offense. Rutgers has looked better. Indiana needs it more. This is the Hoosiers’ last stand. Indiana 21, Rutgers 20.

Follow IndyStar reporter Zach Osterman on Twitter: @ZachOsterman.