Game Day Prediction: Is Nebraska a Must-Win Game for Indiana’s Bowl Hopes?

Indiana coach Tom Allen referred to as the group’s 38-31 win at Nebraska in on Oct. 26, 2019 a ‘breakthrough’ for this system.

Following 5-7 information in Allen’s first two full seasons in 2017 and 2018, Indiana lastly secured that elusive sixth win in Lincoln, Neb. to achieve bowl eligibility. The imaginative and prescient Allen was promising to gamers, recruits and followers was beginning to come true. 

“The historical past is what it’s, however we’re making modifications now and that is what we’re promoting to recruits,” Allen stated after the Nebraska win in 2019. “The underside line is ultimately you must begin doing it on the sector, and I get that. I used to be born at night time however not final night time. The underside line is you must present proof on the sector that the breakthrough is definitely coming, and it is truly going to occur.”

Quick ahead practically three years, and program has skilled loads of ups and downs. Following bowl appearances and a mixed 14-7 file in 2019 and 2020, Indiana collapsed to a 2-10 file in a 2021 season that began with sky-high expectations. 

Allen and the Hoosiers are actually attempting to rebuild the momentum and perception from years previous, and so they discover themselves in a considerably related state of affairs to their final journey to Lincoln in 2019. No, Indiana cannot punch its ticket to a bowl recreation in Week 5, however Saturday is as near a must-win recreation because it will get for Indiana. 

Wanting on the large image, matchups in opposition to No. 4 Michigan, No. 11 Penn State and No. 3 Ohio State might be penciled in as losses. Michigan State stands a 2-2 after a blowout loss at house to Minnesota, however that is a street recreation by which I do not see Indiana successful. That leaves 4 video games – street journeys to Nebraska and Rutgers, in addition to house video games in opposition to Maryland and Purdue – because the Hoosiers’ almost certainly alternatives at wins. They’re going to want three of them to qualify for a bowl.

Indiana’s fifth-year linebacker Cam Jones remembers the significance of the 2019 win at Nebraska when he made three tackles there as a sophomore, and he is wanting ahead to returning to that hostile surroundings with loads at stake. 

“That was a win that we would have liked to have, and it was positively a breakthrough within the [2019] season,” Jones stated. “So having the ability to return there and compete in opposition to these guys and be capable of convey house a win, it means so much.”

Nebraska received five-straight matchups from 1975 to 2016, which included an virtually 40-year hiatus, however Indiana leads the all-time collection 10-8-3. On Tuesday, Jones stated the group mentioned how Indiana hasn’t received back-to-back video games in opposition to Nebraska because the 1956 and 1959 seasons.

“It is a recreation that we will put in historical past and we will write about it later down the street,” Jones stated. “It is one which we actually need.”

My prediction

Nebraska is favored by 5.5 factors on this matchup, in accordance with the SI Sportsbook. Residence subject benefit for Nebraska definitely performs into this, and Indiana did not deal with a street surroundings at Cincinnati nicely, snowballing right into a 28-point halftime deficit. 

The Cornhuskers are coming off a bye week, which might show particularly essential for a group present process a number of teaching modifications. Former head coach Scott Frost was fired after a 45-42 house loss to Georgia Southern, and defensive coordinator Erik Chinander was fired after a 49-17 loss to Oklahoma at house. 

Interim head coach Mickey Joseph is aware of the significance of the sport for his personal job safety, saying the following eight weeks function his interview as Nebraska conducts a nationwide seek for a brand new head coach. And after a 1-3 begin to the yr, a win might do so much for the group’s mentality transferring ahead.

“Beating Indiana is the primary purpose,” Joseph stated. “However it’s actually essential for this soccer group simply to get some confidence that they’ll begin one thing and end it.”

I feel this matchup comes down whether or not Indiana can put collectively its most full recreation, offensively. The Hoosiers have began sluggish in all 4 video games to begin the 2022 season, scoring simply 9 of their 115 factors within the first quarter. That has to alter on Saturday.

Alternatively, Nebraska’s protection hasn’t been in a position to cease anybody at any level this season. Here is a fast abstract of Nebraska’s 2022 protection and the place it ranks amongst 131 FBS groups on a per-game foundation. 

• Complete yards allowed: 514 – 127th
• Speeding yards: 233.5 – 127th
• Passing yards: 280.5 – one hundred and fifteenth
• Factors allowed: 35.5 – 114th

Every of those stats are the worst of any Massive Ten group, and the Cornhuskers are additionally final in sacks (4) and opponent third down conversion charge (52.5). In brief, Nebraska has been one of many worst defensive groups within the nation in 2022.

Indiana’s offense has struggled with consistency, however when quarterback Connor Bazelak and the Hoosiers discover their rhythm, their speedy tempo is hard to cease. He’ll need to be extra environment friendly than 31-for-66 passing like final week in opposition to Cincinnati, however the Nebraska protection is evidently a step under Cincinnati. 

Indiana’s protection has had its justifiable share of downfalls, too, and Nebraska presents just a few dynamic gamers on offense alongside quarterback Casey Thompson. Operating again Anthony Grant rushed for over 100 yards in his first three video games, together with a 189-yard, two-touchdown effort in Nebraska’s win over North Dakota. LSU switch broad receiver Trey Palmer put up 92 yards and a rating in opposition to Oklahoma, and the Indiana secondary is coming off a recreation the place it gave up landing passes of 75, 34 and 32 yards. 

This leads me to consider will probably be a high-scoring matchup, and in the long run, I see Indiana successful this recreation 37-33.

Associated tales on Indiana soccer:

• HOW TO WATCH: Indiana (3-1) travels to Nebraska (1-3) for a Week 5 matchup on Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET from Memorial Stadium in Lincoln, Neb. Here is learn how to watch, with recreation time and TV data, the newest on the purpose unfold and three issues to see from Indiana. CLICK HERE
• INDIANA WEEK 5 DEPTH CHART, INJURY NOTES: Indiana soccer (3-1) travels to Lincoln, Neb. on Saturday for a 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff in opposition to the Cornhuskers and interim head coach Mickey Joseph. Here is Indiana’s Week 5 depth chart, in addition to some fast harm updates. CLICK HERE
• CAM JONES PODCAST: On this week’s Episode 5 of Hoosier Roundtable Podcast, Indiana linebacker Cam Jones was awarded the Terry Tallen Soccer Management Scholarship, and his response was caught on digital camera! Shot on the Buskirk-Chumley Theater, check out the total podcast video, or learn the transcript abstract. CLICK HERE