College football Week 6 picks: Is Indiana-Northwestern a total mismatch?

Northwestern won eight games last season; Indiana won three. NU was 5-4 in the Big Ten; IU was 1-8. One team, surprisingly good; the other, hopelessly bad.

Now forget all that, OK? Because if the Wildcats beat the Hoosiers Saturday in Evanston, few, if any, will have seen it coming.

No. 23 Indiana (-13½) at Northwestern (2:30 p.m., BTN, 720-AM) is a prime example of how much things can change from one year to the next in the transfer-portal age. The 5-0 Hoosiers are ranked for the first time since the 2021 preseason — hilarious, in retrospect, given that team failed to win a single Big Ten game — and three good hours from their first 6-0 start since 1967, the year the Cream and Crimson last ended up in the Rose Bowl.

If Alabama’s Kalen DeBoer is the “it” guy in the crowd of new coaches, IU’s Curt Cignetti is right behind him. Cignetti added 31 players from the portal — 13 of whom came from the soaring program he left, James Madison — and the results have been mind-blowing. The Hoosiers are ninth in the country in offense (513 yards per game) and eighth in defense (239.6). They haven’t faced a murderer’s row, but they hung 42 points on both UCLA and Maryland, have a trio of running backs with 15 rushing touchdowns between them and have tormented opposing quarterbacks with 17 sacks. Most of those sacks — 10½ of them — have come from JMU transfers, a striking example of the portal at its most beneficial.

“Coach Cignetti has done an incredible job,” Wildcats coach David Braun said. “It’s a hot football team right now.”

Braun’s team has changed, too, but seemingly not for the better. Their last outing, a 24-5 loss at Washington two weeks ago, dropped the Wildcats to 2-2 and raised doubts they can score enough to be more than a speed bump in this Big Ten season. This defense can get after the passer, too, putting up three sacks per game — a strength that should keep the Hoosiers from piling up a big score — but the 123rd-ranked offense isn’t even averaging 300 yards. The Wildcats are desperate to establish the run and will keep things simple out of necessity in the schools’ first meeting since 2019.

The Hoosiers are different animals than they were then.

“This is a team that’s on a little bit of a mission,” Cignetti said, “and Northwestern’s the next one up.”

The mission isn’t to win nine games, but doing so would be a first for IU since the aforementioned Rose Bowl season. At a basketball school, nine would be more than fine. Hoosiers by nine — 26-17.

OTHER WEEK 6 PICKS

All games are Saturday.

UMass (+17½) at Northern Illinois (11 a.m., CBSSN): Not many are paying attention to this one with the Minutemen at 1-4 and the Huskies back down to earth at 2-2. Worth watching, though, is visiting quarterback Taisun Phommachanh, who is huge, dangerous as a dual threat and once upon a time was a blue-chip recruit bound for mighty Clemson. He sure gets sacked a lot, though. Huskies, 31-17.

Rutgers (+7) at Nebraska (3 p.m., FS1): The 4-0 Scarlet Knights have won at Virginia Tech and beaten Washington, impressive stuff so far. They have a real shot to win again here because of their run game, one of the Big Ten’s best. Can the Huskers load up and shut it down? If not, it’s a total tossup. Huskers, 24-20.

No. 10 Michigan (+1½) at Washington (6:30 p.m., NBC 5): It’s a title-game rematch! Sort of. Michigan is far from what it was last season, and Washington had faded even further. In case you were unaware: Michael Penix Jr. and that Rome Odunze character don’t play in Seattle anymore. When these Huskies aren’t dinking, they’re dunking, not the greatest approach against a defense as tough as the Wolverines’. Maize and Blue, 24-17.

My favorite favorite: No. 3 Ohio State (-18) vs. Iowa (2:30 p.m., CBS 2): Kirk Ferentz has been coach at Iowa since 1999, longer than any other current major-college coach has been on the job. You know what Ferentz has never done? Win at OSU; he’s 0-6 there. His last crack at it in Columbus was in 2022, when the Buckeyes destroyed the Hawkeyes by 44. What does all that have to do with Saturday? Nothing, clearly. Buckeyes by 44.

My favorite underdog: No. 9 Missouri (+2½) at No. 25 Texas A&M (11 a.m., ABC 7): OK, so it’s not the most mouth-watering slate of games around the country; this is Week 6’s only Top 25 matchup. Mizzou struggled to beat Boston College and Vanderbilt in its last two games, both at home, but it’s hard to forget how great the Tigers were on the road last year en route to a top 10 finish. Also, there’s this: A&M is 0-4 against the spread at home this season. The Zou, that’s who.

Last week: 5-1 straight-up, 4-2 against the spread.

Season: 22-11, 17-16.