AP Top 25 Poll Displays Indiana’s Most Favorable Schedule in Years

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – The college football preseason AP Top 25 poll came out on Monday, and to no one’s surprise Indiana was on the outside looking in.

But compared to recent seasons, the vantage point in Bloomington is less daunting. 

After expanding to 18 teams this offseason, the Big Ten found six of its teams in the first AP Top 25 poll: No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Oregon, No. 8 Penn State, No. 9 Michigan, No. 23 USC, No. 25 Iowa. Three more received votes but were left off the poll: Washington, Nebraska and Wisconsin. 

Of those nine, just four are on Indiana’s 2024 schedule: No. 2 Ohio State, No. 9 Michigan, Nebraska and Washington. Indiana will have home-field advantage in three of those games, with a road trip to Columbus being the outlier. The Hoosiers also do not play Ohio State and Michigan until November. That creates an opportunity to build early season confidence, unlike difficult Week 1 matchups in recent years against No. 3 Ohio State in 2023 and at No. 18 Iowa in 2021.

Indiana having just two opponents in the preseason AP Top 25 poll is a stark contrast from recent seasons. Look at the Tom Allen era for example, which began with its first full season in 2017.

From 2017-23, Indiana had at least four opponents in the preseason AP Top 25 poll in all seven seasons. In 2019, it had five opponents ranked in the first poll. That stretch also includes a shortened 2020 season, when four of Indiana’s eight total opponents made the preseason poll. And in each of those seasons, at least one opponent received a vote, and three received votes in 2022. 

Here’s a breakdown of Indiana’s past schedules, corresponding with how many of its opponents made the preseason AP Top 25 poll.

Indiana has the No. 43 strength of schedule, according to ESPN’s College Football Power Index (FPI). The Hoosiers strength of schedule ranked 25th or higher in five of seven seasons under Allen, peaking at No. 6 in 2023 and No. 7 in 2021. Indiana played its weakest schedules in 2019, ranking 58th, and in 2017, ranking 59th.

Among 18 Big Ten teams, Indiana ranks 16th in strength of schedule, meaning only Iowa and Rutgers project to have easier schedules. In those seven seasons under Allen, Indiana’s strength of schedule ranked fourth or higher among 14 Big Ten teams four times. 

Indiana also has the luxury of playing eight home games in 2024. Under Allen, it played seven home games twice, six home games three times and three home games once, during the shortened 2020 season.

Here’s Indiana’s strength of schedule ranking by year, according to the ESPN FPI, and where that ranks in the Big Ten.

The change is a result of two main factors. Indiana does not play Cincinnati or Louisville – teams that reached the College Football Playoff and ACC Championship, respectively, in seasons when they played the Hoosiers. Indiana also traveled to Cincinnati in 2022, when the Bearcats went 9-4, and played Louisville at a neutral site in 2023, boosting its strength of schedule.

But in 2024, according to ESPN’s SP+ rankings, the Hoosiers’ nonconference slate should be a breeze. Indiana’s two FBS opponents, Florida International and Charlotte, rank No. 127 and 126 out of 134 FBS programs. Its FCS opponent, Western Illinois, is 0-22 over the last two seasons and has won four total games since the beginning of the 2019 season. 

Indiana plays those three games in the first four weeks of the season, mixed in with a trip to UCLA in Week 3. And the Hoosiers don’t play an AP Top 25 team until Nov. 9 against Michigan, or a team that received votes until Oct. 19 against Nebraska.

The other factor is a result of Big Ten expansion. The conference eliminated its East and West divisions when it expanded to 18 teams, no longer guaranteeing powerhouses Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State will be on Indiana’s schedule every year. The Hoosiers still play Michigan and Ohio State in 2024 but not Penn State. They also drew the two weakest former Pac-12 teams, UCLA and Washington. 

With a favorable schedule, the ESPN FPI projects Indiana to have its best record since the 2020 season but says bowl eligibility is still up in the air. It predicts the Hoosiers will go 5.3-6.7 and gives them a 44.9% chance to win six games and a 0.5% chance to make the 12-team College Football Playoffs. 

The ESPN SP+ rankings slot Indiana No. 81 overall, lowest of any Big Ten team. But the Hoosiers’ first six Big Ten opponents are all ranked outside the top 30, including two teams ranked higher than 70th. With a manageable runway in the early months, there’s reason to believe Indiana can at least outperform that ranking at the bottom of the Big Ten.

The AP Top 25 poll, other metrics and how they relate to Indiana could be signs of good things to come under new coach Curt Cignetti, a compilation of names and numbers proven wrong, or somewhere in the middle. But all preseason statistical projections say Indiana has its most favorable schedule in years, and that’s perhaps the biggest reason for optimism in 2024.

Here’s the full schedule.