Patrick Everson
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
In Week 11 college football odds, the major players are once again SEC teams. But if you want the closest thing to a sure thing this season, then you should look to the Big Ten.
And I don’t mean Oregon or Ohio State or Penn State. Indiana is a perfect 9-0 straight up (SU) and a nation-leading 8-1 against the spread (ATS).
“I compare this Indiana team to TCU from two years ago. Every week, we see sharp action going against the Hoosiers, and they keep covering,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said.
Bookmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on Michigan vs. Indiana odds and more, in this week’s college football betting nuggets.
Hoosier Favorite?
Indiana is battering opponents on the field and beating up bookmakers off it. The closest games for the Hoosiers this season were two 14-point home victories: 42-28 vs. Maryland and 31-17 vs. Washington.
Last weekend, the Hoosiers were 7.5-point favorites at Michigan State and spotted the Spartans a 10-0 lead. Then Indiana scored the game’s final 47 points to win 47-10.
In college football Week 11 odds, Caesars opened the Hoosiers as 14-point home favorites vs. defending national champion Michigan. How odd does that sound? Yet as of Wednesday night, bettors had pushed Indiana up to -15 for Saturday’s 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff.
“They’re a public darling now. They just get stuff done. Really impressive,” Feazel said of the Hoosiers. “To no one’s surprise, we’re taking more Indiana money this week.
“I would not be surprised if we see Michigan money come game day, from the sharp crowd. They’re gonna bet against Indiana until they get it right. But we’ll bet a lot of Indiana money on game day, too. Indiana is a big public side.”
College Football Rocks On FOX
Perhaps surprisingly, Colorado is on a run and in contention for the Big 12 title. Which means Coach Prime & Co. are in the conversation to make the 12-team College Football Playoff.
This week’s Big Noon Kickoff travels to Lubbock, Texas, for a key clash between Colorado and Texas Tech. The pregame team will do its thing from 9 a.m.-noon ET, followed by a cushion before a 4 p.m. ET kickoff (while you’re waiting for that kickoff, take in Purdue vs. Ohio State at noon ET on FOX).
DraftKings Sportsbook opened Colorado (6-2 SU and ATS) as a 3.5-point favorite vs. Texas Tech (6-3 SU/5-3-1 ATS). The Buffaloes spent some time at -3 on Sunday and Monday before returning to -3.5.
Colorado is getting the majority of point-spread play at DraftKings, landing 78% of bets and 57% of money. Plenty of customers are bypassing the point spread and just taking Colorado to win the game on the moneyline, where the Buffs are taking a hefty 87% of bets and 60% of money.
And that’s as of Wednesday night. By kickoff Saturday, DK and likely most other sportsbooks will be big Red Raiders fans.
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On-Campus Sharp Side
Last week, college football betting expert Paul Stone took Vanderbilt as a 7-point underdog at Auburn. And the Commodores (6-3 SU/7-2 ATS), having a season for the ages, won outright 17-7.
In college football Week 11 odds, Stone is looking for a bounce-back effort from Iowa State. In Week 10, the Cyclones were 14-point home favorites vs. aforementioned Texas Tech and lost outright 23-22.
Next up for Iowa State (7-1 SU/5-3 ATS) is a semi-neutral-site game vs. Kansas at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. Even though the Jayhawks are just 2-6 SU and ATS, Iowa State is only a 3-point favorite. As Stone pointed out, that’s because Kansas has five losses this season by six or fewer points.
But Stone expects a solid effort from the Cyclones, who are in the thick of the Big 12 title chase and an automatic CFP berth.
“Coach Matt Campbell’s teams have responded well off a loss since he took over back in 2016,” Stone said. “In fact, the Cyclones are 27-14-1 ATS off a straight-up loss during Campbell’s time in Ames. With its back firmly against the wall, I expect Iowa State to fire its best shot Saturday against Kansas.”
Stone also expects plenty of Cyclones fans on hand to offset the Jayhawks crowd, which has a much shorter trip to the game.
“Iowa State fans love to travel to Kansas City, so I believe Iowa State will have at least an equal number of fans as Kansas,” Stone added. “I believe the Cyclones will cover the 3-point spread and keep their playoff hopes alive.”
CFB Week 11: Georgia vs. Ole Miss best bets, predictions & odds
SEC Showdowns
Feazel also chimed in on arguably the two biggest games in Week 11 college football odds: No. 11 Alabama vs. No. 15 LSU, and No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 16 Ole Miss.
Both Alabama (6-2 SU/4-4 ATS) and LSU (6-2 SU/3-5 ATS) need wins to stay in the 12-team CFP conversation.
“Whoever loses will have three losses and will have to rely on the spin cycle to get into the CFP,” Feazel said. “We opened Alabama -2.5 and quickly went to -3. The number is probably gonna stick around here.”
While early Alabama action helped push the point spread up, Feazel is prepared to see plenty of LSU money by Saturday’s 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff.
“I expect two-way action by game time, because we have a big customer base in Louisiana,” he said. “It’s a night game in Death Valley. I’ll expect to see some angle shooters coming in on the Tigers.”
At 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, Georgia (7-1 SU/2-6 ATS) visits Ole Miss (7-2 SU/6-3 ATS). The Bulldogs opened -2.5 and stood at -3 (-105) on Wednesday night. The underdog Rebels also can ill afford another loss.
“This game is their season,” Feazel said of the Rebels. “Money-wise, there’s a little bit more on Georgia, and that’s probably what we’ll continue to see.”
Kansas vs. Iowa State, UCLA vs. Iowa: CFB Week 11 Best Bets
I Like Big Bets And I Cannot Lie
By late Wednesday night, there wasn’t much to report in the way of major wagers on college football Week 10 odds. In fact, the only five-figure play that Caesars noted was for $12,273 on James Madison -16.5 vs. Georgia State.
If the host Dukes cover, then the bettor wins $11,157, for a total payout of $23,430.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas
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